Bustamante will beat Arnold -- easily.

[RummyTheDummy]

I'm sure that's been talked about today but I just had that thought in a moment of California recall clarity. I think the fact he has experience and might have an idea or two will win out over fluff.
Am I giving California voters too much credit too early?

[BrotherBuzz]

1. I believe Arnold will beat himself up...

When he runs out of slogans and actually says something.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

2. Today on the drive home I was thinking

Arnold is an actor. He learns his lines and does his thing. He can easily be thrown curve balls that will kill his own campaign. He doesn't respond well to pressure. He is an actor and has all the insecurities of an actor....that's where they need to look in dealing with him.

[BrotherBuzz]

3. You mean he should actually...

have to think on the spot and not just remember lines from the script? Novel thought.

[rudeboy666]

4. Ronald Reagan?

So Ron was the real deal(even if we disagree with him)?

[AP]

8. He's actually really charming, and very energetic.

I know someone who knows him, and that's what he says about Arnold.

Arnold wants to debate because he thinks his wit and charm are going to make up for knowledge. Remember how dumb bush was, and he doesn't have any wit and charm, and they were still able to manipulate his debates into a victory (of sorts).

Arnold is not going to be a pushover. So don't get too content. The story of this election isn't going to be about Arnold falling down. It's going to be about Davis and Bustamante voters standing up. There has to be a sense of urgency, and there has to be a get out the drive effort, and people who can afford it are going to have to donate money.

[dfong63]

10. i don't think he can be dismissed so easily

Arnie is not just "an actor". he's an actor, a businessman, and a bodybuilder, and a father. he's been successful at all three. i'm not sure where you are reading "insecurity" into him. if he's got an insecurity problem, he's also obviously developed ways of overcoming it.

i don't think it's necessary to play head games with him. just let the public know the truth about him. his arrogance and chauvinism, the string of groping allegations, his dual citizenship, his support for prop 187.

[TSIAS]

5. I agree

I think Cruz will win. I don't think they'll be able to get rid of Simon and McClintock.

[knight_of_the_star]

6. An insider's view

Being a Californian, there was a recent poll that showed that Bustmante is pulling ahead of Arnold. He hasn't been hit much while poor old Arnie has taken more shots than the Bismarck.

[oasis]

7. Prop 187 will prove to be Ah-nold's Achilles heel

[JackSwift]

9. If Davis doesn't do Bustamante in

on the sly. I put nothing past Davis.

[Cthulu_2004]

11. It depends on if the Repukes are stupid.

If Simon, et al stay in the race, Bustamante will win, as the right will be split.

If they bow out, Ah-nold will win.

Sad, but true.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

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[Brotherjohn]

13. I agree. Because there's no runoff, and too many "name" Repubs...

... the Repub vote will be split and Dems will by and large stick with Bustamante. Even if the recall passes by a large margin (say 65-35), Bustamente wouldn't even need to get all of those Dem "no recall" votes to win (but you know he'd get nearly all of them, and more). It could break down something like 32% Bustamante, 30% Ahnold, 15% Simon, 5% Riordan, 5% Huffington, 5% Green Party candidate, 8% "other" (just for example).

There are just too many people who doubt Ahnold's qualifications for him to get anywhere near 50%. There are also many people who might want to ditch Davis but still would rather stick with the Dems. But mainly, the "pro-recall" vote will be split too many ways to beat the "anti-recall" ("pro-Bustamante") vote.

[qb]

14. A note about Jesse

While his star power and "straight talk" helped, I think he won because the other two candidates were so inept they essentially handed it to him. If Bustamante runs a competent campaign I think he'll win.

[Le Taz Hot]

15. I'm not sure about the "easily" part

but I'm encouraged by several things I'm seeing just in the Central San Joaquin Valley. My apologies if you've read this in my previous posts, but just in case, here's a few highlights:

- The phones have been ringing off the hook at our local Dem. Party Headquarters with people who are completely pissed off about the recall AND, most importantly, asking how they can get involved.

- We're mobilizing hundreds of volunteers to walk the precincts, speak out against the recall and offering people permanent absentee ballot applications. One 71-year-old man came in, asked for a precinct list and, 2 days later, brought in 30 Perm. Ab. ballott applications.

- There was a Latino event this last weekend in which we signed up 70 volunteers.

- There is a tremendous GOTV going on and people are responding as they never have before.

Remember, this is just one area of California and I know for a fact these efforts are being duplicated in every county.

For the first time in awhile, I'm VERY encouraged.

[Kanola]

16. Are you from the Central San Joaquin Valley ?

I am from Stanislaus County which in next door, and concur that most people I have spoken with think the recall is ridiculous. This area could be considered a conservative one.

[Le Taz Hot]

18. Yep

I'm in Frezburg, home of FreeRepublic and Jerry Duncan (see this week's Top 10 Conservative Idiot's List). We're so proud. :eyes: I don't think the Republicans have any idea what they've wrought. Talk about waking a "sleeping giant." People are pissed AND turning that anger into activism.

And, hi neighbor! :hi:

[Yupster]

17. I agree

In the end, there are just a lot more Democrats than Republicans, and rvrn that smaller number will be split 3-4 ways,