Is the economy actually improving?

[Must_B_Free]

Looking at two indicators I track:

My job search is scant. Only 4 matches. Usually there are over 10.

Massive sales on retail goods. Is this just the time of year or are they swimming in stock?

Interest rates on 30 year loans are down, even though the prime rate is increasing.

[SunDrop23]

1. Job recovery

and the salary of the new job versus the salary of the job that was sacked by Bush are two different things.

[Don_G]

2. No

Quite a few people have given up looking for work and the books are "cooked."

Massive sales on retail goods means there are no buyers for the goods and the buyers for the goods listened to Dimbo instead of the customers.

I suggeat you check with the Stock Market Watch every morning to get enough information to predict what Greenspan will do under Dimbo's direction.

[teryang]

3. The "new" productivity

the new jobs require more output for much less pay. My wife feeds three hundred people three times a day in an institution for the retired well to do. I have over two hundred cases now in my new job at any one time where before I had about 25. These were the jobs we found after extended periods of unemployment. Yet, our income is cut in half.

Welcome to the world of wage slaves. Time off is a joke. My wife and I have to work six days a week, even though we both have nominally 40 hour a week jobs. You can't get the work done. It is impossible. Our health won't last long in this work environment.

My secretary today mentioned she and her husband will have to get second jobs.

[midwayer]

7. I always like to hear

from us common folks, though distressing to hear, as to get the "real" feel/pulse for how things are going in this country. It's too easy for most to shrug off until it hits them personally in the pocket book.

Was chatting with my credit card provider today and she says they are seeing a rise in delinquencies on a nation wide basis as different from the past when it has been in isolated areas.

Good luck to you and yours, we will hope for that light at the end of the tunnel soon.

[midwayer]

4. Massive sales

"Massive sales on retail goods. Is this just the time of year or are they swimming in stock?"

Looks fairly mixed based on this from this AM:

Oh... but look how well Saks is doing! Lynne Cheney has been busy shopping I see

http://finance.yahoo.com/mp?u

8:54AM Family Dollar reports June comps up 0.9%, Briefing consensus +2.0% (FDO) 29.77: Company expects sales in existing stores in both the July and August reporting periods to increase in the 2-4% range.

8:36AM Sears, Roebuck reports June comps down 3.1%, Briefing consensus -2.0% (S) 35.71:

8:36AM Ross Stores reports June comps decrease of 4.0%, Briefing.com consensus -1.7%; guides Q2 below consensus (ROST) 25.63: Company issues downside guidance for Q2 (Jul), sees EPS of $0.29-0.30 ex items vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.32.

8:33AM Gap Inc June comps down 2%, Briefing.com consensus called for 3.7% growth (GPS) 23.48:

8:32AM Tollgrade reaffirms Q2 outlook in line (TLGD) 10.41: Company reaffirms guidance, still sees Q2 loss of $0.04 to profit of $0.03, vs the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.03, and revenues of $13-16 mln, vs the Reuters consensus of $15.5 mln.

8:32AM 99 Cents Only Q2 same store sales decreased 2.5% (NDN) 14.90:

8:32AM Kohl's reports June comps down -3.7% vs Briefing.com consensus called for 2.3% decline (KSS) 41.46: Co reits Q2 (Jul) EPS of $0.42-$0.45.

8:31AM Dollar General reports June comps up 2.3%, Briefing consensus +2.6% (DG) :

8:30AM Saks reports June comps up 8.5%, Briefing consensus +5.6% (SKS) 13.63:

8:26AM Payless Shoe reports June comps down 1.0% (PSS) 14.49:

8:26AM Target reports Jun same store sales increased 2.3% y/y, Briefing.com consensus +2.1%, reaffirm Q2 EPS guidance (TGT) 41.49: Co states, "Sales for Target Corporation were well below plan for the month of June. Despite our lower-than-expected sales for the month, we remain comfortable that we are likely to achieve second quarter EPS in the range of 46 to 47 cents", Reuters consensus is $0.47.

8:17AM Federated reports June comps up 3.4%, Briefing consensus +4.5%, reaffirms Q2 & Y05 outlook (FD) 47.13: Company also reaffirms guidance, still sees Q2 EPS of $0.57-0.62, which includes expected costs of $29 mln for home store centralization and $11 mln of store closing and consolidation costs, vs the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.66; reaffirms Y05 EPS guidance of $3.80-3.90, vs the Reuters consensus of $3.96.

8:14AM May Dept June same store sales increase 2.2%, Briefing.com consensus +2.6%. (MAY) 26.64:

8:05AM TJX Cos reduces guidance, comps up 2%, Briefing.com consensus called for 3.9% growth (TJX) 24.11: Company issues downside guidance for Q2 (Jul), sees EPS of $0.24-0.25 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.28.

8:02AM Abercrombie reports June comps down -5% vs Briefing.com consensus +0.4% (ANF) 37.59:

8:02AM Jo-Ann Stores June comps increase 6.8% (JAS) 28.06:

8:00AM Dillard's reports June comps down 1.0%, Briefing consensus flat (DDS) 22.09:

[AlCzervik]

5. I'd love to know who is doing all the buying

at these places cause it's not me. I have 4 friends that have been laid off in the last 6 months alone.

[midwayer]

6. The rest of the population

is shopping at dollar general...not sears