So Bush is going down in the polls but Kerry isn't rising. That's to be

[Jackpine Radical]

expected at this point. If that pattern persists after the conventions, then maybe we're in trouble.

But I keep remembering that a year ago, Kerry was totally out of it. The clear leader for the nomination was Howard Dean, with nobody else anywhere near him.

The fact is, there's no point in being too big a target too early. We don't want a landslide in July. We want one in November, and based on past evidence, I think Kerry knows how to deliver that result.

Remember also how far Gore was lagging in the polls until the convention? Then he kissed his way into the lead, and essentially kept that lead all the way into the election.

I think Kerry's gonna come out of Boston like a white knight, while the Pug convention in New York is gonna turn into a disaster of Chicago '68 proportions. The synergistic sum of those two events will put Kerry into the White House with the kind of majority nobody since FDR has been able to command.

And that's the way it's gonna be.

[Teaser]

1. "after the primaries?"

you mean the conventions, I presume.
Otherwise, we're in a world of hurt :)

[Not Me]

2. There are two more positives out there...

First, I believe he is putting off the VP announcement to allow the bump to run as long, and as close to the election as possible.

Second, polling shows some support for Nader. We know that when people are finally put in a position to vote, many will go for Kerry. This number may even be more pronounced since in many states, Nader won't even be an option (except perhaps as a write in). Regardless of what Ralph says, every Nader vote is one less Kerry vote. I believe his not getting the Green nomination will keep him off in many states...and those voters will go Kerry.

[Jackpine Radical]

6. Urk! Of course.

That was a brain fart of major proportions.

[David__77]

3. I agree: "there's no point in being too big a target too early."

That's what the other side wants--to make this about anything other than Bush's failures and evils.

[leftofthedial]

4. unlike the chickenhawk currently occupying the WH

Kerry knows how to keep his head down in combat.

[Vickers]

18. Thank you!

Excellent point!

:toast:

[tom_paine]

5. I disagree, it's because all polls are now "Freeped"

Not always by the Freepers, I think there are Bushvik Mockingbirds and Psyops at the Major Pollsters because the Busheviks have always known the importance of controlling information and developing misnformation for dissemination to an unwary populace.

I don't think there is ANY population on Earth more gullibel and unwary than the Imperial Subjects of Amerika.

Sympathetic Bushevik "employees" are at all major polling organizations, I believe.

(maybe except for Zogby though that will change)

Kerry will never rise above 50% because the fiction must be maintained in order for the busheviks to steal the election "it was really close".

[Jackpine Radical]

7. I have a feeling that, if someone other than me had made the

optimistic forecast in my thread-opener, my response might have been exactly the same as yours. I'm really of two minds about what may happen.

[tom_paine]

9. You and about 2 or 3 billion others around the world

I hope your intiial prediction is correct.

[Slit Skirt]

16. amen

[DinahMoeHum]

8. Remember too, Kerry hasn't picked his VP yet. . .

for Kerry to be doing well at this point is, well, good.

And he apparently knows how and when to pick his battles.


:kick:

[Jackpine Radical]

10. That's pretty much what I was trying to say.

Right now, it's Bush's negatives that count for the most.

Wasn't it Napoleon who said, "When your enemy is busy destroying himself, it's rude to interrupt?"

[Still_Loves_John]

14. Well..

"Wasn't it Napoleon who said, 'When your enemy is busy destroying himself, it's rude to interrupt?' "

Im totally with you as far as your argument goes--I'm tired of the insane expectations of some people on this forum, but I don't think we need to be quoting Napoleon.

You know, he just doesn't have a great record as a "closer".

[ThomWV]

11. I'm Worried About The Democratic Convention

I think it will be disrupted by strong forces. The Republicans are not going to let the Democrats have a fully televised love-fest for the whole nation to enjoy. They will find a way to disrupt it or they will find a way to overshadow it.

[Jackpine Radical]

12. Well, I'm pretty damn sure the New Yorkers aren't gonna let

the Repug convention roll along smoothly, and whatever the Pugs do to the Dems in July will come back on them in triplicate.

[Don_G]

13. I Love Watching The Trend

[Jackpine Radical]

15. Those downward segments of the graph between the up-bumps

seem to decay at a rate of about 2 points per month. That should result in about an 8-point loss between now & Nov 2 unless there's another bump (e.g. an October Surprise). But note that the magnitude of the bumps themselves is declining at a predictable rate. The first (9-11) bump was about 30 points. The second, at the time of the invasion, was about 15. The last, in December 2003, was about 7 points. Each bump is half the magnitude of the last. If that pattern were to continue, the October Surprise would result in only a 3 or 4-point bump, about half of the magnitude of the additional decay we might expect by election day. That seems to mean that Bush will be 8 points further down than today without a bump, and 3 or 4 points bwelow today even with the bump.

[Eloriel]

17. Seems to be a bit of a pattern with kerry

When the popular Repug Gov. Weld ran against him in the mid-90s, Weld was ahead. I don't happen to know what exactly happened, but Weld started to lose points. Kerry didn't pick them up -- UNDECIDED did.

I don't think many people are particularly excited about Kerry, they're just excited to get Bush out.

[quinnox]

19. Kerry is a strong finisher

But I am not so confident to say he will win for sure. Anything can happen. There is still a chance Kerry could lose, and hopefully if this happens the Dems will at least pick up the Senate for a consolation and then have good opposition to Bush's agenda for the next four years.

[ShaneGR]

20. There is a historical reference for this phenomena

In 1980 Carter was in a poll-deadheat with Reagan, despite all of the terrible news he was saddled with, until a little over a week before the election.

What turned the tide and gave Reagan that landslide victory? The debates. Americans are busy staring in shock at the President right now. Until they see Kerry at the conventions, and the debates, the polls will stay as they are.

Once election day comes, factor in high turnout amongst Dems and Independents and you have a landslide for us.

[MalachiConstant]

21. i've also read in many places

that kerry isn't taking advantage of his most important benefactor: the country's (with the exception of those crazy rw'ers) deep-seeded hatred of the bush regime. unfortunately, i tend to agree with this particular criticism. the success of farenheit 9/11 only exemplifies the fact that this country truly does not like the current administraion AND is in favor of change. and this should be more thoroughly exploited.