Canadian Election Day 10 Update. Libs-34%, Cons-30%, NDP-16%

[Screaming Lord Byron]

Curious polls, possible rogue results. We shall see.

New Ipsos Reid poll -
Libs - 34%
Cons - 30%
NDP - 16%
Bloc - ?
Greens - 6%

Atlantic Canada
Libs - 44%
Cons - 24%
NDP - 24%

Quebec
Bloc - 44%
Libs - 29%

Ontario
Libs - 36%
CPC - 36%
NDP - 20%

Prairies
Libs - 36%
Cons - 30%
NDP - 25%

Alberta
Cons - 49%
Libs - 27%
NDP - 14%

BC
Cons - 39%
Libs - 34%
NDP - 14%
Green - 10%

(numbers are incomplete, detailed tables not yet released)

66% say its time for a change, 29% say Liberals deserve re-election.

Naturally, the media is going crazy over their darling, Stephen Harper, despite the fact that the CPC is only at 30% in the polls.

Other news.

Conservative critic wants new abortion rules
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040601.wxelecabor01/BNStory/specialDecision2004/

Liberal woes fuel Tory-Bloc theories
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040601.wxeleccoal01/BNStory/specialDecision2004/

B.C. Liberal politicians' offices vandalized
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/mini/CTVNews/1086053752238_30?s_name=election2004&no_ads=

PM blasts Layton plan to axe Clarity Act
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1086041409464&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

Layton firm on homeless issue, Clarity Act
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/mini/CTVNews/1085935079563_33?s_name=election2004&no_ads=

Election call a Martin mistake - Vote timing could doom his team
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1086041409470&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

Ex-PM predicts election upset (WARNING - Brian Mulroney alert)
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1086041409188&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

[Spazito]

1. I only hope having Mulroney as a "key adviser" is the kiss of...

death for the faux Conservatives. Surely Canadians haven't forgotten what Mulroney did to Canada! From all I have read, support on all sides is VERY fluid, many not locked in yet which is a good thing for the liberal (small l) side and not good for the Harper gang, imo.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. I want to see more stories on Mulroney advising Harper.

Especially if there's more polls suggesting CPC gains. I think the phrase 'Brian Mulroney, Special Advisor to Prime Minister Stephen Harper' might cause some palpitations.
Like I said in my original post, it's really quite pathetic that the right-wing media is going crazy over a party that is barely at 30% in the polls. C'est la vie.

[Spazito]

3. It was interesting, I was listening to news reports on the polls...

and they were using "momentum" poll numbers, what the hell are those? I think the media wants a close race and will twist the verbiage to try and get that. Harper is trying desperately to avoid the discussion on the faux Conservative anti-choice plans, their support for the Iraq war, etc. I don't think he can continue to do so and that will bring down their numbers.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

4. The abortion story I posted might be a pointer.

We're starting to see the old Reform wingnuts rear their ugly heads. As ever, they have impeccable timing. I believe these are the momentum numbers that were mentioned.

http://www.globeandmail.ca/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040601.wxpoll01/BNStory/specialDecision2004/

"The momentum is certainly not with the governing party. Only 11 per cent of voters say their opinion of the Liberals and Mr. Martin has improved in recent weeks, compared with 47 per cent who say it has worsened. This score of "negative 36" compares to "plus 18" for the Conservatives and Mr. Harper, and "plus 15" for the NDP and Leader Jack Layton. The score in Quebec for the Bloc Québécois and Leader Gilles Duceppe is "plus 17.""

If you believe these figures, and they seem to be borne up by other recent polls, Paul Martin has gone from being a serious asset to a dubious liability to the Liberal Party in the space of a few weeks.

[Spazito]

9. The voters are volatile for a number of reasons, I think, with or without.

Martin, this is going to be a very interesting run up to the election I think.

[Minstrel Boy]

5. Ipsos always gets BC so wrong

Every other recent breakdown I've seen shows BC in a virtual three-way tie, with the NDP nudging into the lead, and the Greens essentially nowhere.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

10. Look at the samples. Environics had twice the sample size for BC

and came up with 36% for the NDP.

[GreenPartyVoter]

6. As an American progressive, who should I be rooting for? :^)

[Screaming Lord Byron]

8. Here's the links, I'll leave it up to you.

http://www.greenparty.ca
http://www.liberal.ca
http://www.ndp.ca

[Canuckistanian]

11. The NDP is the popular progressive party.

The Green Party is here, but not anywhere near the NDP. The Greens have never won an election.
The NDP is running third in the polls so far and that's good news. As long as the Liberals (not really that 'liberal') and the Conservatives are running so close to each other, then that means one thing - a 'minority' government. And whoever wins a minority government will look to another party for support so they won't get voted down on bills everytime.
And the natural choice is... the NDP!

[GreenPartyVoter]

12. Ok , I understand the deal. Thanks! :^)

[Screaming Lord Byron]

7. Is there any way the NDP can be at 14% in both BC and Alberta?

That's truly bizarre, seeing as the NDP vote in BC is almost inevitably twice that of Alberta, and that the recent Environics Poll (with twice the sample Ipsos uses) had the NDP at 36% in BC. I think we should be wary of the campaign polls. If this is anything to go by, other figures, like the crucial Ontario numbers may be equally skewed.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

13. Oh dear. Now here is a suspect poll - Canadians Want Two-Tier Health.

http://www.canada.com/national/features/decisioncanada/story.html?id=75f6cbe4-6da5-4c84-9e8a-17e447c651ca

More than half of Canadians support a parallel private health care system that would let patients pay for speedier service, according to a new poll on an issue that has been largely ignored in the current campaign.

The poll found 51% favour a two-tier system, with support highest in Quebec, at 68%, and Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the birthplace of medicare, at 57%.

Michel Kelly-Gagnon of the Montreal Economic Institute, which commissioned the poll by Leger Marketing, said it is evidence the parties should be debating two-tier medicine.

[Spazito]

14. LOL I can just imagine the questions they asked....

Are you in support of healthcare? Yes or no

Do you know what two-tier healthcare means? Yes or no

Poll results: Canadians support two-tier healthcare

I notice they never report what the actual questions are in these news articles.

[democracy eh]

15. Highly volitile electorate

who want their pound of flesh from the Liberals. They want to send a message to the Libs that they can't take power for granted.

at the same time it is good that the Canadian Republicans are peaking early. This was predicted given the mess of the Liberals.

My hunch is that it will turn around to a Liberal Minority or a Liberal/NDP coalition. We are 1 week into it, there is plenty of time for the Conservatives to show their true colours. Their strategy is to say as little as possible, focus on generalities. Avoid at all costs discussion Abortion, Iraq, same sex marriage, 2 tier healthcare, environment, etc...

Give the media and the public a chance to see the who the Conservatives REALLY are. Besides the Conservatives are already getting cocky and saying stupid, stupid things.

another factor is that there is an underlying feeling that the Conservatives will do anything for power. deals with the Bloc, are waaay too much for Ontarians.

The poll saying the Libs don't deserve to be there is not new. They forgot to include the other components, who do you trust most with the country? Not Stephen Harper.

another possibility is that we could see a fracturing of the Liberals down the middle, the left going to the NDP, the right to the Conservatives.

it is a summer election. Anything can happen, whose supporters are most motivated? Gas prices, Ontario Liberal tax hikes, general lazy population, who knows

[Screaming Lord Byron]

16. SES Poll - Lib 36%, CPC 25%, NDP 22%.

That better? :evilgrin:
http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20June%201E.pdf

[Minstrel Boy]

18. Now that's what I'm talkin' about!

Thanks for posting, I was just about to look it up.

And thanks to the distribution and concentration of our support, the NDP doesn't need a higher pop vote than the Conservatives in order to win more seats. At just a three-point spread, I'd say that would be the likely result.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

19. The polls are all over the place now. I have no idea what the true figures

are. I guess we have a lot of floating voters out there.
Incidentally, the Liberal-friendly side of my office was discussing the election, and it's hilarious listening to people who don't pay much attention and what they believe. Here it is, verbatim-
"Oh, yeah, that NDP guy who said Martin killed the homeless"
"Yeah, that was disgusting"
"I heard he was doing pretty well 'til then, then it all fell apart"
"What was his name?"
"Something Layton"
"Bob"
"Yeah, that's it. Bob Layton"

[HEyHEY]

17. I think my independent has about 30 per cent of the vote - hopefully risin

What the Southern INterior riding....he just may take it

[KamaAina]

20. Now would be a VERY bad time for Canada to become America Jr.

not that there would be any good time for the CPC to get in, mind you, but North America needs a free, anti-imperialist, anti-Bush* Canada desperately.

Remember, a vote for Harper is a vote for Mulroney is a vote for Bush*.

[Spazito]

21. Yep, well said!

Once the electioneering REALLY gets going, the past record of the Alliance, now known as the faux Conservatives, will come into full bloom. Their anti-choice, anti-immigrant, pro-bush, pro-war, anti-social programs, to put it in a nutshell, their anti-Canadian stance.