A graph of PollingReport data: The tipping point is reached.

[gristy]

Approval/disapproval spread is now solidly in negative territory.
Here's a link you can bookmark: http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/

http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/img_bush_spread.gif

[Cocoa]

1. when do they break out Osama?

I say they start defrosting him when it gets to -20%.

[Hokie]

2. Notice that Fox is always on top

Zogby shows Bush lowest. It was the most accurate poll in the 2000 election. Zogby had Gore winning by a point or so.

[osaMABUSh]

16. You nailed it - Fox and Zogby - watch those two and you know

the story. If Fox is anywhere near negative * is in deep doodoo. And we all know Zogby has it nailed.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

3. How could any...

repuke congresscritter look at that chart and not get hysterical and explosive diahrrea?

Deeply dissatisfied people vote. Anger is a great motivator on Election Day.

[iconoclastic cat]

4. I'm confused. Can someone explain what this means?

First of all, what does an "approval/disapproval spread" actually mean to show? There are dots in the -20% range---but -20% of what?

Also, what is a "tipping point," really? Is that wishful thinking, or is it poli-sci fact?

[Beetwasher]

6. The spread is the difference

between approval/dissaproval. A 60% dissaproval and a 40% approval has a 20pt spread. That's where Chimpy's heading and that's pretty much the point of no return, IMO, and we're close.

Tipping point is mere conjecture really, there's only historical data to compare it to.

[iconoclastic cat]

12. got it

thanks!

[gristy]

9. It's the % of people who either approve or strongly approve

of the job bush is doing MINUS the % of people who either disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job bush is doing. I call it a tipping point because when that number is negative, the press can no longer say stuff like "popular wartime president" or that he "has the approval of the majority of Americans". All that short-hand goes out the window. They just can't say it any more. And this (along with all the other shit going on and being reported in the press these days) will cause many fence-sitters and even some bush's "supporters" to finally express their disapproval of him.

IMO, anyways.

[iconoclastic cat]

15. Well, the press ***cough--FOX--cough*** could still slant it, right?

To the right, I should say. Look at the current NYT debacle.

[NNN0LHI]

5. Still hard to think about when we were the 10 percenters at DU

It was really looking bad back then.

Don

[dusty64]

7. You ain't kidding.

I hoping the public doesn't fall for what they are gonna pull next.

[Walt Starr]

8. Hell, we were lower than ten percent at one point!

Those were some dark days!

[NNN0LHI]

18. Yea. But thats all we ever admitted to. It was too painful n/t

[mhr]

23. I Had Forgotten What Light Looked Like, Still Feels Like A Cave At Times

eom

[tom_paine]

10. Lordy, Don, who can forget THAT?

Being a Voice in the Wilderness. People who thought I was nuts.

At least recently I've gotten the ego boost and satisfaction of many of then coming to me now, saying "I can't believe you were right about almost everything."

What an ego stroke!

But, man, YES I remember those days.
No getting complacent, pal, there is MUCH MORE WORK TO BE DONE!

[Jack Rabbit]

11. Remembering that makes this extra sweet

But let's not get too complacent until November 2.

BTW, my birthday is November 3. Please make sure I have something to celebrate.

[WillyT]

13. Anybody Remember What The Second 'Bump' Was From ???

I know the first is Sept.11th, but what about Feb. or Mar. 2003???

Is that from the build up to war, or am I forgetting something else?

:shrug:

[Beetwasher]

14. Yes, the War

n/t

[WillyT]

17. OK, Thanks !!!

n/t

[TacticalPeek]

19. And a third little, baby bump when Saddam was snatched.

http://www.pollkatz.com

The polity is developing 'tolerance' for the flagwrapper drug.

[WillyT]

21. Anybody Wanna Guess At What The Fourth Possible Bump Might Be ???

:nuke::scared::nuke:

[BrotherBuzz]

24. Dead cat bounce?

Hey, we don't need no more stinking bumps!

[gbwarming]

31. The microbump? $60 million in advertising down the rat hole. nt

[gbwarming]

20. BTW, Pollkatz is back as of 5/24!!

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/ the inspiration for RadioFreeMonkey.

Be sure not to miss these two phenomenal charts-
Gallup Approval Ratings:
Bush and Six Postwar Presidents
All White House Occupants since Carter

[gristy]

28. Wonderful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I had been very worried about the professor. His website had not been updated since December. Well, he updated it on 5/25, and he has revealed his identity!

www.geocities.com/stuartthiel

Stuart Eugene Thiel

Greetings.

I'm Stuart Thiel, Chicago ex-lawyer, not Stuart Thiel, Canadian web page ace.
(No relation. Oddly enough, we both have brothers named David Thiel.
(They're no relation, either.))

If you're thinking maybe you know me, I'm the guy who:

Was born in Washington DC in 1955;
Grew up in Epping Forest, near Annapolis, Maryland;
Attended, among others, Key School, Rolling Knolls, Bay Country School, Annapolis High (class of '72), AACC;
Was a mediocre Civil Air Patrol cadet;
Served in the U.S. Army, 8th Finance Co., Bad Kreuznach, '73-'76;
Graduated from Cal-Davis, class of '79;
Did graduate work in economics at Duke ('79-'80) and Wisconsin ('81-'86);
Taught economics at Washington State University, '86-'93;
Attended Michigan Law, '93-'95;
Practiced corporate (tax) law, Chicago, '96-'03;
Resumed teaching economics, now at DePaul University, Chicago.

curriculum vitae (pdf file): LINK

e-mail: [e-mail]

Pages on this site (all is original content written by me):

Marvin Gardens' Monopoly Page
Chutes and Ladders
The Optimal Strategy for the Penny-Nickel-Dime-Quarter-Dollar Game (as taught to my daughter in the second grade)

QWERTYUIOP: Words you can type using only the top line of typewriter keys
ETAOIN SHRDLU (Letter Frequencies for three novels: Tom Jones, Bleak House, Women In Love)

A Day at the Bank: A Dialogue inspired by Groucho and Chico
Clevinger's Hearing (a short skit adapted from Catch-22)
The Cold Christmas Cat (A realio trulio children's story -- no tricks)



Here are two adventures-at-sea by William Clark Russell. Russell was very popular in the late Victorian era; Conan Doyle,
famously, depicted Dr. Watson as whiling away a stormy afternoon engrossed in one (alas, neither Doyle nor Watson
gave us the title). I copied these for Project Gutenberg a while back, but somehow I could not satisfy them that the
books had been published before 1923 (and are therefore in the public domain), even though Russell had died several
years earlier.

The Frozen Pirate (1883)
The Wreck of the Grosvenor (1877)


Project Gutenberg did e-publish my scans of two classics by Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.:

The Path of the Law (10 Harvard Law Review 457 (1897))
The Common Law (1881)

Links (you'll quickly notice a theme):

BartCop
BuzzFlash
Counterspin Central
Daily Howler
The Daily Kos
Eschaton
Josh Marshall
MaxSpeak
Smirking Chimp
TBOGG.com

Here are my contributions to the genre:

Professor Pollkatz's Pool of Polls
Slander: Liberally Lying About Liberals
Dr. Limerick's Daily Limerick (an archive of daily limericks from October 2000 through July 2002)

[Johnny Arson]

30. Gotta love

that map on the front page. :)

Elendil! Onward Gondor!

[daleo]

22. The graph has good news and bad news

Good news - people have decisively turned against *
Bad news - a new war or attack would seem to be what he needs for one of those sudden bumps up.

[LunaC]

25. But.....but......but......

From where he's at now, a sudden bump wouldn't get him higher than 30 (if the bump is similar to the last two.)

A new attack might even have an adverse effect as folks realize that Georgie ain't protectin' them from squat!

[daleo]

26. You could be correct about the adverse effect

But, some people could find this tempting, anyway.

[NicoleM]

27. Didja notice

the striking smiliarity between Senior and Junior on this one?

http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/img_compare_chron.gif

[Jacobin]

29. Jeeze, looks like a DNA scan

Like father, like son....in the genes??

I hope.