42% now say they will vote for Arnold? I thought it was 25%?

[Democat]

The poll, conducted by CNN, USA Today, and Gallup found 64 percent of respondents would recall Davis, while 29 percent said they would keep him in office

If voters do agree to recall Davis, a candidate needs only a plurality of votes to win. Schwarzenegger leads the long list of hopefuls, with 42 percent of poll respondents saying there is a good chance they would vote for him.

Also in Schwarzenegger's favor is that 72 percent of respondents think his campaign should be taken seriously. More than half -- 52 percent -- say he would do a better job than a career politician.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante is second, with 22 percent of respondents saying there is a good chance they would vote for him. Republicans Bill Simon and Tom McClintock are tied for third with 13 percent.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/08/11/calif.recall/

The numbers I read yesterday were 25% to 15% for Arnold and Cruz. Is this a different poll?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. I do question this poll!

How legitimate is it! How can it be that he is so far ahead. 64% of Cali's want to recall Davis
This poll must be off or "fixed"!

[Democat]

3. The media is promoting Arnold nonstop

The entire media is promoting Arnold and marginalizing all other candidates.

They ignore Cruz, the Lt. Governor of the entire state, as if he is just as laughable as Gary Coleman, while talking about Arnold as if he is already the governor.

This is a preview of how the media will act during the 2004 election, and we are probably screwed.

[molly]

2. I heard on MSNBC a little while ago that there are 200

candidates.

[Democat]

6. You probably heard that there is Arnlold and 199 others

They rarely even mention the Lt. Governor by name. He is just one of the other freaks running against the great Arnold as far as the media is concerned.

[papau]

4. Weekend polls were 55/45 davis loses, 35/25 Arnold wins

Seems the GOP did some work since Thursday to get the proper wording for the CNN poll questions.

[jos]

5. Yes, different poll

And the question was different, much softer, not the hard question in the Time poll.

CNN sponsors so many polls that the results often contradict one another. The network's political polling is a direct descendent of Sybill the Soothsayer's vox populi in the movie The Network.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

7. Polls sponsored by CNN...

are worse than FOX "news" polls, if you can believe it!

During Election 2000, if that's what you call it, I remember the polls would have 15%-25% swings in a weeks time.

One week Bush is ahead 15% the next it was Gore by 10%! How the hell can this type of swing occur in a WEEK's time??
Simple, it can't! The CNN poll process is FUNDAMENTALLY flawed!!!

At least FOX polls always show the Repugs about 5-10 points ahead. Yes they are biased but they are constantly biased!
At least we know where the conservative and REICHISTS are coming from. The CNN/TIME/GALLUP polls are HIGHLY INCONSISTANT!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. As You Said CNN Uses

Gallup for their polling. They were off by a great deal in 00 because they didn't properly control for party identification.


The polls in CA are very fluid now and as another poster suggested the wording also has alot to do with fluctuations.


But developing a poll question isn't rocket science.


If the recall petition were tomorrow would you vote to recall Gray Davis?


Who would you vote for on part 2 of the recall petition?

[CMT]

9. this is very bad news if true

that Arnie has a 20-point lead but even more to the point how far Davis's numbers have fALLEN with less than 30% planning to vote to keep him in office is astounding.

[Democat]

10. The media is telling Californians to vote for Arnold

Arnold is the only one getting any media coverage, and he is being promoted nonstop by all media.

If this keeps up, his numbers will go up, not down.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I'm a small d democrat

but I thank God the Founding Fathers put in checks and balances and separation of powers in the Constitution.

The California recall petition illustrates the horrors we would have if this was a plebiscitary democracy.

[jos]

12. But they also put in the Electoral College

:eyes:

I'm against recall and the electoral college for the same reason: both are undemocratic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Have A Problem With The Electoral College Also

That's such a thorny problem we could be discussing it for days.


Same thing with the Senate. You could argue that the Senate is a perversion of democracy since California gets as many senators as Vermont.

However I like the Senate because it's a brake on majoritarian rule.

I don't have a problem with majoritarian rule as long as it's decisions are the result of informed, sober, and dispassionate debate.

The debate could go on for days.

All in all, I think the Founding Fathers did a pretty good job of defending minority rights while providing for majority rule.

And they also included an amendment process to address any oversights or infirmities in the existing document.

[Mairead]

26. You're half right--the EC is undemocratic

but recall, like initiative and referendum, are very democratic.

Just think if we had recall and referendum for all offices -- we would never have been made unwilling murderers because the Five Felons could never have forced Smirk onto us. Ali would still have his arms and his family. Lori Piestewa's kids would still have their mommy. We would still have billions upon billions of dollars in the Treasury. And we wouldn't have the 'Patriot' Act. And we might not even have had 9/11.

If you love democracy, support initiative, referendum, and recall for ALL offices.

[Mairead]

23. There're no horrors involved...it's democracy

Falling down is an important part of learning to walk. The solution to the kid wailing when it falls and hurts itself is not to prevent it from walking, it's to wait til it figures out how not to fall down.

Democracy can be messy, painful, and expensive. But lack of democracy is worse. Too many of the Founders were like John Jay -- 'Those who own the country should run it' -- and they set things up so as to limit democracy. And their successors have set things up to make people stupid, too. I don't think that's a road we should continue going down. In fact, I think we should close that road. AND tear up the pavement.

As Zinn says, the basic principle of democracy is that ordinary people --even ordinary people like Arnold Schwarzenegger-- are capable of taking good decisions about how to run the nation. Is Arnold capable? Who knows. Are people going to get what they deserve if they sit around at DU wringing their hands and playing Ain't It Awful instead of getting out there and saying 'it's a bad idea, let's do this instead and here's why'? Betcher bananas they will! But if it's bad enough this time, maybe people will figure it out and not fall down again. Or maybe not.

That's my hope for 2004. I hope SmirkCo has been terrible enough that Nader's ...I don't know what it was, prediction?... will prove true. That people will figure out that voting for a charming psychopath is a Stunningly Bad Idea and they should look a little deeper in future. Maybe at some small, ordinary-looking guy who's so focused on his vision for the nation that he can't even recognise a golden opportunity in Iowa to be snide toward Smirk. He simply dismissed Smirk as unimportant, and he didn't even bother to score Snideness points by saying that he's unimportant and not worth the energy to attack.

Maybe we can learn how not to fall down. Or at least how to get right back up again.

[last_texas_dem]

13. Scary

I think CA is screwed if a majority of the respondents think some cheesy actor has a better idea of how to do things than a "career politician." And over 70-percent take his candidacy seriously? (Well, I suppose that one's not too surprising; even if you reject everything about "Ahh-nuld", the Republicans could really do some damage to the state in the long-term if he got into power, so I suppose his CANDIDACY, if not he himself, SHOULD be taken seriously.)

I don't wish ill on any of the people in the state, but perhaps there are just too many stupid/misinformed folks there to keep "Ahh-nuld" from getting in there.

What's even more disappointing is it looks like there must be a sizeable number of liberals/Democrats supporting the jerk. How else can the top three Republicans be garnering 68-percent of the vote combined to Bustamante's 22?

[David__77]

18. This poll is not a "real poll."

The numbers add up to more than 100% because some people say there is a "good chance" they'll vote for MORE THAN ONE person.

I believe many Democrats said no one because the party is not yet actively promoting the Bustamante option. There are also big problems with the question of WHO is being polled--who will vote. All assume a high GOP/low Democratic turnout. We'll see if this happens--I don't think so.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

22. RIGHT!!!!!

Key Word Fellow DUers: "Good Chance"!!! The Dem's have to start to fight this SHIT NOW!!!!! Cut their lead down and go for the kill!!!

[Nederland]

14. Movement

What you're seeing is movement due to the huge amount of media attention Arnold is getting. My personal thinking is that his numbers have peaked and have nowhere to go but down. We shall see though, he may turn out to be a more talented politician than I think.

[Democat]

15. Everyone said he "peaked" at 25% - now he's nearly double that

By the end of the week, he'll probably be at 100%. If he peaks at 100%, there really will be nowhere to go but down. :)

[mitchtv]

17. arnold has been declared the winner

by all the media , and everyone believes it

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

25. It will be interesting to see what he polls when the meetings with Ken Lay

become known. I think you called it. They will go down from here. People are STILL pissed about their electric bills and it's the middle of summer...they are high.

[theboss]

19. Not surprising at all

Davis has been falling like a rock since the recall became official. Two factors at play (IMO): 1. Democrats are seen to be abandoning him. 2. These things develop a momentum all their own. I think people just like the idea of "throwing the bums out," regardless of whether it's really a good idea or not.

Let's be honest. Davis is not the most charismatic guy going. No one seems to be standing up for him personally.

As for Arnold, he has universal name recognition. To most people, the question sounds like this: "Would you vote for A) the guy who made a lot of movies you like, B) Some Latino you never heard of, C) Some white guys you never heard of, D) That foreign chick with the gay husband, and E) That feller what makes magazines with the dirty pictures?"

[tameszu]

20. Uh, Alex, I'll take the dirty pictures for $200

...wait, make that the foreign chick...

[goobergunch]

21. It's a new poll

Sunday's poll included interviews with 801 registered voters from August 7-10. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.

[TheBigGuy]

24. Isnt Schwartzenegger sort of a Jesse Ventura candidate?

hmmm?

yes i know he is a Republican while Ventura was an indy, but Arnold is sort of running as Arnold, not as a a GOPer.

[arcos]

27. By Friday he'll be at 150% according to the media. n/t