"A Kerry Landslide?" -- interesting article in latest Washington Monthly..

[flowomo]

suggesting that the election may not be close, and that Kerry is more likely to win in a landslide than in a close contest, because in recent history when the incumbent is in trouble, he loses big. Examples given are FDR/Hoover (472-59 electoral), Reagan/Carter (489-49), Clinton/Bush I (370-168). Author Chuck Todd says this election looks very much like Carter/Reagan -- with the incumbent being buried by bad news abroad (hostages) and a slumping economy (gee, high gas prices!). He also notes that both Bush II and Carter were Southern, religious former governors.

On the other hand, Carter/Ford was close (297-240, electoral college)

[Ugnmoose]

1. Could be a landslide except for one thing

The October Surprise...don't put anything past these mafiosos. They will resort to anything including staging another 9-11. This time it will be biological (probably anthrax).

[yardwork]

2. I've been thinking this for a while. Nobody agrees with me.....

well, almost nobody.

This election is a like a mirror image of 1980, with the conservative/liberal roles switched. I see several parallels:

1. Carter became unpopular with Democrats as well as Republicans. Once his popularity began to slide, he was unable to turn it around. The chorus against Carter grew in intensity until it was a virtual avalanche of derision.

2. Reagan had run before but had never been taken very seriously as a candidate.

3. Despite Carter's falling popularity, the Democrats didn't take the possibility that he would lose to Reagan very seriously. They sort of had their heads in the sand when it came to the 1980 election. Democrats were shocked by the election results. They hadn't realized how many Americans had abandoned support for Carter. I think that this same thing may be happening with the Republicans now. They believe their own press, and they don't seem aware of how unhappy most Americans are with the economy and the war.

One thing that Shrubby has going for him (so far) is that the press is in his pocket. The news media turned against Carter.

If that starts to happen to Shrubby, he will lose and lose big.

[flowomo]

4. I agree but for one detail....

that red state/blue state thing is SOOOO much more pronounced now than in 1980. A mere 25 years ago, you could imagine a candidate of either party winning ANY state.... but now? It's just hard to see a "landslide" when things have become so polarized. Still, I find the analysis in the Washington Montly intriguing... and hell.... we don't need a landlside.... just a win.

[ThoughtCriminal]

3. I hope that Congress changes too

Otherwise the republicans will use control to cover and attack.