please give to one of the Democrats running for Senate this year

[Eric J in MN]

We shouldn't put all our hopes on Kerry.

We should try to regain the Senate, too.

Here is a webpage about the Senate outlook.

http://www.dailykos.com/special/senate

Please choose a Democratic Senator to donate money or volunteer-time to.

[Eric J in MN]

1. Republican seats which are competitive

http://www.dailykos.com/special/senate

REPUBLICAN SEATS

1. Illinois (Last update: 1)
Things continue to improve for the Democrats in the Land of Lincoln. As reported in the last update, State Senator Barack Obama was nominated in a landslide (53% in a 7-candidate race) to be the Democratic torchbearer for this open seat. Obama, a graduate of Harvard Law (where he was the first black editor of the Harvard Law Review) and a pupil of the late US Senator Paul Simon, is now considered to be a rising star in national politics (should he win, of course).
His opponent, wealthy investment banker Jack Ryan is still embroiled in a dispute over the sealed records of his divorce settlement. If fact, GOP insiders are worried that Ryan might have to drop out of the race if the records are released, and prove damaging. This race leans to the Democrats, and Ryan will need a great deal of good fortune to win this race.

2. Colorado (last update: 2)
As mentioned before, Attorney General Ken Salazar is the Democratic anointed candidate following the retirement of Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. He now has only one primary opponent, Mike Miles, who will probably withdraw at the state convention. The GOP will see a primary battle between Ex-Congressman Bob Schaffer, who has been called a “gadfly” by the Denver Post, and beer magnate Peter Coors. A Rocky Mountain News Poll shows Salazar leading Schaffer 49-34, and private polls from both sides have the race at a double-digit lead for Salazar. I think this one will tighten, due to Colorado’s Republican nature and President Bush’s probable victory in the state. However, this race is still Salazar’s to lose.

3. Alaska (Last update: 3)
Senator Lisa “Thanks, Daddy!” Murkowski may have more problems dumped on her soon. She may be facing a primary challenge from ex-State Senator Mike Miller, who has promised to announce his decision on April 15th. Why then? Tax day, of course, and Miller would have his campaign revolve around Governor Frank Murkowski’s tax hike in 2003. A primary challenger would likely lose to Murkowski, but likely weaken her right flank heading into November.

4. Oklahoma (Last update: 4)
The GOP primary to succeed Senator Don “the passed-over” Nickles is getting interested. Recently, ex-OKC Mayor Kirk Humphreys and Ex-Congressman Tom Coburn traveled to Las Vegas for a fundraiser with the NRSC. This has angered many conservative Republicans in the state, and may help Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony pick up some steam.

While Republicans are claiming that President Bush will easily win this state in November (with about 60%, they say), a recent Indy poll shows Bush ahead of Kerry 50-40. If Kerry can hold Bush below a 15% margin of victory in November in the Sooner State, Congressman Brad Carson may conceivably pull off a victory. Carson’s fundraising has been superb, and the GOP primary (and likely runoff) will cost the GOP a great deal of funds.

5. Pennsylvania (last update: 5)
If, as I think will happen, Congressman Pat Toomey ends the career of Senator Arlen Specter on April 27th, this race will move up on the list. Even if Specter holds on, the beating he’s gotten from both sides of the spectrum has really weakened him for November. Polls show Specter leading Toomey 46-33 in the primary, and 45-31 over Congressman Joe Hoeffel (the Democratic nominee) in November. However, that same poll shows Specter’s reelect number upside down (36-44%).

(NOTE by Eric: Arlen Specter won the Republican Primary)

6. Missouri (last update: 6)
I’m slightly more optimistic about this race than Kos is. A more recent DSCC survey shows Democrat Nancy Farmer (who will face attorney Charlie Berry in the primary) gaining ground on Senator Kit “The Porkster” Bond. The race has gone from 52-38 Bond to 49-39 Bond, and Farmer’s name ID is slowly growing. No recent Independent poll, but I do think this race will be competitive. It leans Republican, for sure, but if Kerry can carry Missouri, I think the state could have its first elected female Senator (Jean Carnahan was appointed).

7. Kentucky (last update: 6)
I’m tempted to move this race up a notch after the major faux pas of Senator Jim “Hall of Shame” Bunning. After joking at a GOP fundraiser on March 20th that his opponent, State Senator Dan Mongiardo, resembles a son of Saadam Hussein, Bunning has been under serious fire for it. His campaign has bungled its spin on the faux pas, first denying, then admitting, and then refusing to show the evidence for the incident. This could give Mongiardo an opening to make the race competitive. To win, however, “Dr. Dan” will need more cash.