CNN just now: Pew Research poll has Kerry at 50% - Bush 45%

[blm]

Now THAT sounds more believable.

[HFishbine]

1. Curious

Which anchor or reporter was "forced" to deliver this news?

[blm]

3. Woodruff.

Bet they had plenty of emails last week noting their use of bogus poll numbers.

[HFishbine]

4. Man

Sorry I missed that. I'll bet she had tears in her eyes.

[vickie]

9. I'm so glad the sanctimonious shrew was the one to deliver this very

Judy Woofwoof what a shill!!!

Vickie

[MO_Dem]

23. She seemed to add special

emphasis to the word "slight" when she said Kerry had a "slight" lead over Bush--so even if she had to say it, she seemed to try to diminish the significance.

[yardwork]

28. LOL!!!

[Tempest]

2. Gallup 05/12/04: Kerry 50% - Bush 44%

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=11671

[underpants]

6. As I said a LONG time ago-Time and pressure people time and pressure

It ain't over that is for sure but these numbers are obviously more accurate than what they were saying just last week.

[NewJeffCT]

10. agreed - never forget

Never forget, Mike Dukakis was up by 18 points over George HW Bush much later than Kerry is up by 1, 3 or 5 points now...

[Beetwasher]

12. Much Different Scenario

Neither was an incumbent.

Nonetheless, now is not the time to get cocky, but we can be excited about these numbers. Kerry is in PHENOMENAL shape at this point in the campaign.

[Blue-Jay]

11. Outstanding!....n/t

[Beetwasher]

5. Also Read the Director of Pews Editorial In Todays NYT

If you want even more good news!

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/12/opinion/12KOHU.html

[Gloria]

18. Andy Kohut is a good guy...at least he was when I worked for him

back in the late 70's at Gallup. Andy shared the Presidency (he alternated with another guy, switched back and forth every year for a short time) when Gallup was really Gallup...the old man still walked the halls.

Andy then left and did his own thing for awhile before landing at Pew.
Hard driving, chain smoking, would run into him at the Princeton Shopping Center occasionally (up until about 4 years ago when I moved).

Andy always meant business. If he's still the same as when I worked for him, then I would trust him. From what I see of him, I think he is still a straight shooter...

[Claire Beth]

7. yeah! that's great.....

i just hope nader the idiot doesn't cost us the election.

[lancdem]

15. I don't think it will be close enough for that to happen

[spotbird]

8. Link

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=213

[leyton]

13. Why is it that DUers believe only good news and dismiss the bad?

Every time a poll comes out with Kerry behind, it's blasted as right-wing media, biased, polling. Yet nobody questions a poll with Kerry ahead. Does this do any good, or does it just make us cocky?

(Yes, I realize not all DUers do it. But I get sick of reading it.)

[underpants]

16. I've seen that too but I think in this instance it's a bit different

All the media was saying that W was ahead 47-45% or something like that last week when in fact of REGISTERED voters Kerry lead by 6 points.

Anyway you are right sometimes people do that I for one try to just take them in total and see which way the trend is. The trend has been W going down for a while.

[bolokshi]

20. You have a point Leyton

this is not child's play anymore, need to step up the pace, no letting off now. I still don't trust CNN.

[blm]

21. The WAY they presented the poll numbers from last week.

They shift from likely voters to all voters depending on which one looks better for Bush.

It was also very questionable last week when Bush's re-elect was at 48% when the same poll showed his approval at 46%.

I only question them when there are reasons to question them.

[Lexingtonian]

24. 'Cause reality is that Kerry's been ahead since January

There are basically two kinds of polls that come out. One is the "likely voter" kind, and Kerry consistently leads those by 48:44:3, with 5% Undecideds. Well, the numbers fluctuate some, but if you split the Undecideds 2:1 or 3:1 in Kerry's favor (which is the norm in challenger/incumbent splits of Undecideds), the numbers almost invariably point to a 52:45:3 fundamental breakdown. It's remarkably consistent.

But "likely voters" only means 50%-60% of all voters. The rest don't vote. When you look at "registered voter" or "adults" being polled, the numbers are always something like Bush 45, Kerry 40, Nader 6, Undecided 8. You can work backwards and figure out how non-voters split from this: Bush 45, Kerry 32, Nader 10, and Undecided 13. Bush's number matches his Approval Rating with non-voters: attitudes in accord with work environment and family. Kerry's number with non-voters matches to the hardcore Democratic voting percentage: votes in accord with family environment. The Nader number reflects people who don't want to engage with the business being transacted by the parties that actually govern. Undecideds are a little more complicated, but they're probably most easily thought of as passive support for the major challenger.

So: the people who emphasize the pollings in which Bush leads are in essence engaged in dissembling. "Registered voter" or "adult" polls simply are discordant from "likely voter" ones, and everyone who actually knows how to read the distinction sees the use of "registered voter" polling as 1) feeble attempts at polling, excusable in some instances where there isn't money to buy more voter sampling, or 2) deceptive relative to "likely voter" pollings.

There is additionally a tendency by Gallup, more so than other pollings, to assume without warrant (as far as anyone here can find) that 10% or so more Republicans than Democrats need to be used in their model's weighting.

[yardwork]

30. The sampling is easy to manipulate, as you say....

There is additionally a tendency by Gallup, more so than other pollings, to assume without warrant (as far as anyone here can find) that 10% or so more Republicans than Democrats need to be used in their model's weighting.

For instance, do they include cell phone numbers in their samples? If not, they are getting a heavy skew toward stay-at-home folks, who are more likely to be conservative on average.

Self-selection creates other biases. Who is more willing to take the time to answer a telephone poll - the busy working mom or dad who is trying to get dinner ready, drive the kids to soccer, and field calls from work - or the retired housewife who is preparing a light supper for her husband to enjoy while they sit on the patio? Which is more likely to support Bush?

There are built-in biases all over these polls, and the pollsters know it.

[FlemingsGhost]

29. Funny, innit?

I don't need a poll to tell me how despised Bush is...

[Walt Starr]

14. We're at the breaking point

If the fecal matter continues striking the rotational cooling device, Kerry may win in a landslide.

[Jim Warren]

17. Great news, I'll take it

even though I think the real numbers suppressed by the media are more like Kerry up 60/40.

Of course, with this kind of good news the very next thought is:

What's the next "event" Karl has on the calendar?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. We need to bury Bush AND Nader

On to 60%!!!!

[Octafish]

27. What NewYorkerfromMass said!

Keep on keeping on!



Gottalottaworktodostill!

[callous taoboy]

22. Rock on!

:headbang:

[bushwakker]

25. But shouldn't Kerry be leading by now...Oh he is leading. Sorry.

xx

[SayitAintSo]

26. It's more believable to me too !

I think the Bushies / media have been promoting this notion of Kerry as being a loser because he can't even gain points when the president is at an all time low ... What a strategy ! It does seem to be a common theme. What will they try next as Kerry is not coming up in the polls ? Fun to watch!

(edit for spelling)