Why I doubt the Berg conspiracy theories developing here--

[bigbillhaywood]

I. I totally believe that there are people in the US gov't/military capable of such atrocities against other Americans.

II. I believe it is difficult to keep such a conspiracy secret, though by no means impossible.

III. I find it unlkely that "black ops" would execute an American citizen without orders from fairly high up the chain of command.

IV. I find it unlikely that people high up in the chain of command would make such a decision.

A. Such decisions are not made lightly: They are carefully premeditated and normally involve some sort of risk/cost-benefit analysis.

1. Potential benefit
(a) Could increase calls of vengeance by American people, freeing the military to use an even heavier hand in Iraq.
(b) Could distract from prisoner abuse scandal


2. Potential costs/risks
(a) Equally likely to convince Americans the war in Iraq is a bloody quagmire and was a mistake from the get-go.
(b) Equally likely to exacerbate prisoner abuse scandal by Americans linking the two in a causal relationship (already happening according to man on the street interviews)
(c) If the conspiracy were ever uncovered, all those implicated would likely be executed, the Bush Administration would be toppled, and it might lead to a full scale destablization of the Federal government as a whole.

Now, after doing such a cost-benefit analysis, would you, as a top-level CIA/military operative or Administration official want to authorize the clandestine execution of Berg, given that the benefits are uncertain and the potential risks so high? Unlikely. Past historical examples of black ops in Central America do not apply, since the potential benefits were clearer and risks lower.

This is not to say it's impossible. Maybe no analysis was made, or the analysis flawed, or it was rogue agents, and higher authorities are covering it up. But I think it's improbable.

[opihimoimoi]

1. Its more likely the father who put pressure for them to release the son

pissed them off. so they left his orange prison suit on and kicked him out the door to fend on his own.

Buh Bye.

clearly marked by an orange suit, he was quickly picked up and slaughtered like some animal.

[bigbillhaywood]

2. I think that is more probable than the theories circulating around DU

that the masked men were CIA operatives, or acting on behalf of the CIA.

[Tansy_Gold]

3. No.

It was reported that Nick Berg went back to his hotel AFTER BEING RELEASED FROM THE PRISON, contacted his parents, and then went missing. It's not likely he was wandering around in an orange prison jumpsuit.

Besides, those who have looked closely at the video and stills from the video seem to agree that what he's wearing is orange, but it's too silky and too long-sleeved to match standard prison garb.

[bigbillhaywood]

4. Funny, I thought this thread...

would get some good traffic. I guess that threads postulating conspiracy theories about the right wing are sexier than those questioning such conspiracy theories. I'll check back tomorrow...

[DianeG5385]

21. No conspiracy, that has been outed by the photos...

It is unsettling that this follows so closely upon the Iraqi abuse issue. I wonder at the Mossad involvement in Iraq, but I know this is an "unmentionable" because if broached, one is considered an anti-semite (which is kinda funny if you think about it, since there is little difference between US and Isreali policy we clearly have been trained in their techniques), it just appears we have adopted their tactics against the Palestinians (Native americans of the middle east). Will they get to build casinos?

[hang a left]

25. Will they get to build casinos?

LOL.

Nice to read a funny joke today.

[quinnox]

5. Whenever there is a public news event

you can always count on the conspiracy theorists popping up, no matter how absurd.

As if there really aren't evil people who are enemies of the U.S., and would committ atrocities in their cause. This seems impossible to accept for some for whatever reason.

[salin]

7. while I don't see a clear conspiracy

I do recognize that there is some real oddness to this story. Don't trust that the press will push (hell it took them nearly four years to finally pursue in depth the whole bush skipping out on his TANG service) even if there really is a story - unless the story is very obvious (eg the torture pics). That leaves a void for those with more active... abilities to try to link different dots... to look at those angles.

Thing is - some of the 'conspiracies' - have turned out to be so... the planning/staging the 9-11 days to set up a war in Iraq - sounded conspiratorial to some initially... Concerns about black box voting sounded nuts to folks initially...

Sometimes the dots that the tinfoilers find.. are really interesting and point to a story that is yet to (and later does) develop. So let 'em have at it... just check in and point out from time to time where certain dots do not fit (eg that didn't look like a prison jump suit- silky and loose fitting... )

[Zero Gravitas]

14. Yup

Any event and the tinhat brigade runs around looking for reasons for why its a vast conspiracy put into mostion by Bush.

1) Event happens.
2) Tinhatters immediately CONVINCED Bush is behind it
3) They brainstorm to try and figure out WHY he might do it
4) They fixate on some minor detail and claim that its is rock solid "proof" that the "official story" is all lies.

Its pathetic really and discredits anyone with a genuine question about what happened.

[davekriss]

20. Actually Bush IS Responsible for Berg

If the Bush* regime didn't lie and mislead about Iraqi WMD and false connections between 9-11, Al Qaeda, and Saddam Hussein, we would not have illegally invaded Iraq. If we didn't illegally invade, Berg would not be wandering around looking for opportunities to help. If Berg is not in Baghdad, then the sadistic thugs (whomever they really are) wouldn't have grabbed him and sawed his head off while he screamed.

Cause and effect. However, I acknowledge that this chain can be extended quite far back. For example, to all of us who quietly allowed the Coup of December 12 to proceed without resistance, etc. ...

Karma is a bitch, you know.

[turiya]

6. I didn't know the act of questioning

is now considered a "conspiracy theory."

[MGKrebs]

8. I haven't read all of the conspiracies, but,

there is a middle ground to what I have seen.

The US Army did detain him.
The FBI did interrogate him for 2 weeks.
He was Jewish.
He was held in a prison.

Although I can't rule it out, I doubt that the actual murderers are US agents. But it would have been quite easy for US agents to "mark" him if they had a problem with him. After all. he was a Jew in Iraq.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

9. I think that this is a pretty clear analysis. I agree with all points. I

just watched the video of this. It was horrible.

[stickdog]

10. Watch this play out, dude.

As far as BushCo is concerned, this is all benefit and no cost.

This is red meat for his base and the woefully misinformed undecideds. As such, it will work like a charm.

What was the risk again? That we might form another Kissinger led commission or something to "get to the bottom" of this?

In what lifetime?

[cosmik debris]

11. I disagree

The risk is that people will react as I did and say that this Iraq thing is now officially out of control. I hypothesize that more and more people are saying this every day. I can't believe that BFEE would take that chance.

[stickdog]

13. What choice did they have?

The Sex & Violence quotient of the prison abuses simply HAD to be countered.

The only way to stem the damage (of the only scandal that's ever stuck on Bush out of hundreds worse over the last 3.5 scandal ridden years) was with some "Hate Goldstein Even More" red meat and quick!

Surely anybody can see that.

[cosmik debris]

15. Traditionally in politics

Good news is used to counter bad news, not more bad news. But I am willing to believe that they are STOOOOPID enough to believe that making things worse makes things better. Just look at their economic policy.

[Az]

12. Consider this twist

There was already a murdered US citizen. Possibly decapitated. No video or link to the culprits was made available. Interested parties created the video as a means to enrage the public towards "terrorists". They used editing to sub out the real person (note the odd editing and image blurring) and replaced it with a dummy or the body of an already slain Berg.

[mitchum]

16. CIA...

three filthy letters

[Tansy_Gold]

26. But. . . .but. . . . but. . . . .

I thought the CIA was trying to help bring down * because of the outing of Valerie Plame?

If the killing of Berg helps *, how can the CIA be behind it?


Oh, never mind.

[mitchum]

30. The CIA would never try to bring down *...

because that filthy organization has been instrumental in the political and economic fortunes of the BFEE. Plame is completely expendable as far as the CIA is concerned.
Both the CIA and the BFEE are cancers on democracy.

[Postman]

17. the Bush criminals don't care about America, yes, they would do it.

Atomic Veterans
Tuskegee Experiment
Plutonium Experiment
Bay of Pigs
Kennedy Assassination's
Warren Report
MLK Assassination
COINTELPRO
Operation Northwoods
Gulf of Tonkin Incident
October Surprise
Iran/Contra
911/Iraq Connection
PNAC

[bigbillhaywood]

18. I already acknowledged 1. They would have no moral problem doing

it. 2. There are historical examples of horrendous US set-ups, conspiracies and cover-ups. However, I think it is improbable (though not impossible) this is one for the reasons listed above in my original post.

[DianeG5385]

19. I find this hard to believe as well except,

The walls were Abu Ghraib yellow, and the men standing behind him had their legs spread apart in an aggressive stance not usually seen in videos of Al Queda or Iraqi insurgents. Looked like a football stance. Note, I refuse to view the video of a beheading, but unfortunately as I walked in my house tonight, the local station showed everything up to the moment and audio of the unmentionable.

I am physically ill by the last two weeks, but lay it all at the footsteps of the most incompetent administration in the history of this United States of America. (The Founders must be whirling in their graves!)

This is a puzzle, but I settle on the fact that I cannot in any way believe that an American or an ally could behead an American. This is such a classically Arab punishment. Unless, this was made to appear...STOP IT!!!! Look what these fools have reduced me to??? I can't trust that this abuse was not manufactured while my soul tells me they don't have it in them.

We need to get the heck out of there and FAST!!! I could care less about the Bush legacy, which is uniformly disastrous, I care about the soul of this country which has been as abused and systematically murdered for political gain as were Nick Berg, the 4 military contractors and the Iraqi detainees.

[Matilda]

22. Catching up on all this a little late.

The news would have broken at night here, so this is the first I've
heard.

I don't understand why Berg was arrested and questioned by the U.S.
for so long - wouldn't it have been very easy to check up on his
story by calling the firm he had planned to work for?

[DianeG5385]

23. It's a puzzle. Is it shown that he actually left US custody?

That is something we need to settle as right now, no one trusts no one.

[ConsAreLiars]

24. I think explanations should be fitted to the facts, not the reverse.

This is the result of lots of causes - that's just the way reality works.

Why indulge in fantasies that some secret cabal (and there are in fact lots of them, doing real things worth documenting and discussing) masterminded/staged this event?

Anyone who has half a clue about the nature of this war knew that a destabilized Iraq would be opened to al-Qaedaish factions and this kind of butchery would happen at some point. It took a year to get here. With all the terrorism against the people of Iraq that inherent in such an invasion and attempt at conquest, the only surprise is that it took so long.

Anyone who has heard the insane "yer with us or yer the devil" rantings of the PNAC-Moon-Fundie-Con gang knows that they have done more to increase the power and build the base for Islamic nutcase terrorism than bin Laden ever dreamt possible.

Anyone who understands that "killing them all" is a dangerous delusion saw this day coming.

************************
The Bush League War on Terra
- - America's shame forever - -
************************

[TroubleMan]

27. The beheaders were too fat to be our black ops guys

Every guy I've seen in special forces or in black ops has been in tip-top shape.

Our government wouldn't have sent a bunch of fatasses to do this....seriously...the one guy looks like Belushi in Animal House.

However, the the guys who fight against us don't have height and weight standards. Their only requirement is that you're willing.

I have my doubts about the video being a "live" beheading, because of some jump in camera times and my bad eyes see no blood, but there's no doubt they beheaded him.

I think it was the anti-American forces retaliating against us for "pointy girl" and friends. They filmed it to insult us as well. However, I don't believe we should retaliate in kind. It would make us just as bad as them. We should have never been in Iraq, and we should get out now.

[JCMach1]

28. Another Possibility: CIA gets the video and holds on to it

It's graphic after all...

Then secretly releases it in a timely manner through a store front terrorist website...


PSYOPS~~! a pure play

[incapsulated]

29. Pretty good analysis

Of course, this leaves out all of the unknowns. Like why was he being questioned so intensely, especially given that he was American? How and when and were was he kidnapped? etc. etc.

Or, he could have just had the world's worst run of bad luck imaginable. Shit does indeed happen.