O K -Fellow DUers -Test Your Predictive Powers

[DemocratSinceBirth]

At 6 :00 PM EST CNN will be releasing their first poll on the CA recall since the Terminator's entrance into the race.

Will support for Gray Davis' recall be greater than 50%?

Will the Terminator be first?

Will the Terminators' numbers be anywhere close to 50%

How will Cruz Bustamante do?

How will Arianna do?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. My prediction

Recall will be in the 70's
Arnold will be in the 40's
Cruz will be in the 30's
Arianna will be at about 3%

[wellstone_democrat]

4. If they call enough people over 24

they will miss the heaviest "movie/advertising" demographic and my bro-in-law who (at 32) is planning to tell every pollster that he WILL vote AS just to skew the numbers (he's nuts). AS will sink to the 40-50 range with Bustamente in the 20-30 range. I think that this one is really demographically driven---think many senior citizens are going to go for Arnold? I don't.

Arianna will do no better than 10
Bustamente " " 30
That Jackass Arnold will be anywhere from 40 upward i'm afraid


but, let's see in two weeks when his "campaign" gets going. Will he shake hands at workplaces or answer questions? I doubt it. That will take some of the shine off this boy.

[VOX]

2. Sad to say that, in the process of undoing a legitimate election...

Recall support will be in the 70s.

Arnie's support will be in the high 60s or 70s.

Neither Cruz nor Arianna will do very well.

People are pissed off, and when they're po'd they do stupid things, like electing an ex-wrestler as governor of Minnesota. California is no different.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Karl Rove must be wetting his pants

When are we going to stop letting these cretins eat our lunch

Tell me.


Tell me please.

[pinerow]

5. When one is working with almost unlimited funds it becomes

very difficult to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

IMHO I would not be surprised to see some Scaife money involved in this recall effort. I tell everyone who listens that the issues facing the U.S. today had its' genesis in the late seventies.

We,(and I include myself) became entirely too complacent while the chipping away at our "Inalienable" rights has been happening just under the radar.

When we allowed police to search our vehicles (that was supposed to catch drug dealers), create checkpoints at any location they wish.

Now its been codified in the so-called Patriot Act, which an overwhelming number of people support; after all, its' those damned brown people who are terrorists.

I have flown at least a dozen times and have had my moments with the so-called screeners while the rest of the passengers just meekly pass on through.

Sure, get the terrorists, but lets not pull Grandma out of the line
and subject her to a body search.

What other rights are you willing to give up in the name of security.

as ol' Ben Franklin said "Those who relinquish their rights for security deserve neither"

[phoebe]

6. answers..

recall - 62%
terminator - first
terminator - 43%
bustamante - 40%
arianna - 12%

[paulsbc]

7. Going on a limb

And saying that the first poll will shock all, with less than 50% supporting a recall, leaving the other numbers meaninless.

How great would that be :)

[goobergunch]

8. Prediction

Recall? Yes 45% No 37%
Schwartznegger 28%
Bustamante 23%
Huffington 12%

There will still be a lot of undecideds.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The Vertically Challenged Vote

will gravitate towards Arnold now that he "won" the pivotal endorsement of Gary Coleman.

Will Mr. Willis be next?

[Jack Rabbit]

10. Let's see

The recall will be in the low fifties. The No on the recall will be in the high thirties/low forties.

The Terminator will be first, but support will be shallow.

His numbers will be nowhere near 50%.

Bustamante will be well positioned.

Arianna may also be well positioned.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. The Actual Numbers From Memory

For Recall 54%

Against 35%



Part 2


The Terminator 25%

Bustamante 15%

McClintock 9%


Simon 7%




Schwarzenegger can be beat. The answer is in the numbers.

[Democat]

12. When you say it's in the numbers, what do you mean?

54% support the recall. That is a very bad omen for any Democrat running.

If the media continues to support Arnold and ignore Cruz, this race is lost.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I See It Differently

After all this hoopela Arnold is only at 25%

It will get only worse.


Dem's have a strategy if they are smart enough to seize it:

No on 1

Bustamante on 2

[molly]

13. What - no POLL?

OK - short and to the point - Arnold will be the next gov of CA - he will also switch party affiliation.

[Clete]

14. No prediction here. Others here have pretty much posted what

I would have. However, here's some speculation about Arianna and Arnold. After her little scenario to upstage Arnold this morning, I do believe she isn't running for governor, but she is running against Arnold and intends to kneecap him every inch of the way until the election. Anyone else have these suspicions? Or, am I looking for something gossipy to entertain myself until the election?