Interesting Article: Repug Srategist on the Repug Campaign Strategy

[Onlooker]

<http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showa.html?article=37111>

Key Bush strategist expects a victory, but not a landslide

... “The long-term outlook is good,” Dowd says. “We’ve made it harder for Kerry to convey a message about the President to the public. They want to drive our approval down. But we’ve cut his net positives in half.”

Both campaigns seek not just to define their own candidate, but to define their opponent. From the Bush campaign’s point of view it goes something like: The President is a strong, wartime leader, who will safeguard the economy and the homeland, and John Kerry is a flip-flopper, a waffler and a liar.

Just as the Bush campaign succeeded to a certain extent in portraying Al Gore as a fabricator in 2000 (Did he really invent the Internet?), it now believes it is succeeding in portraying Kerry the same way.

...

Yet it is hard to detect any air of great exuberance when one talks to Bush’s people. They believe he will win, but nobody is predicting a landslide. Unless you redefine landslide.

“A 4 to 5 point victory on Election Day would be a landslide for the kind of country we are in today,” Dowd says. “If the election were held today, it would be a Bush victory by a couple of points, 51-49.”

The Democrats say this is nonsense and point to a recent CBS News/New York Times poll, in which only 36 percent of those interviewed believed the country was on the right track while 55 percent believed it was on the wrong track.

Dowd is not worried by this, however. He has his own polls. And his own strategy. “The race is close and will remain close due to the divided and polarized nature of the country,” he says. “You will get 45 to 46 percent of the vote no matter what you are for or against. This is not like the Reagan years when you had 20 percent of the vote you could move. Today, there is about 8 percent you can move. Our range is very small. We have two goals: Motivate our base on Election Day and get a share of the swing vote.”

...

Though just who makes up the swing vote in America is a matter of some disagreement, Dowd identifies it as three groups: Suburban married working women; younger working-class males; and Hispanics.

He expects these groups to swing back and forth as the months proceed.

[displacedtexan]

1. They always say that.

Everyone loves a winner who comes from behind at the last minute. Both sides want to claim that status right now.

Look to literature for numerous examples: no one wants to read about a hero is completely on top of things and who glides to victory against the bad guys (or forces).

Winners have to suffer setbacks and face their flaws (or fears) to be hailed as heroes.

If repukes told the truth, they would say that their goal is to get close enough to cheat... LIKE LAST TIME.