Introducing TIAKerry% vs. MediaBushit%

[TruthIsAll]

Don't be fooled by the Repuke polls. Kerry is leading. Apply the TIA adjustment formula to get the true Kerry% vs. Bush:

TIAKerry% = Kerry% +2/3*(Nader%+Undecided%)

This is because we can assume (based on historical statistics) that:
1) 2/3 of Nader voters will split for Kerry.
3) 2/3 of undecided voters typically go to the challenger.

Life is based on assumptions. The Repukes assume we can't count. And that the people are ignorant. Many are. But many are not.

I said ignorant. Meaning uninformed. Not stupid. Uninformed.

Know this. Knowledge is Power.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1532830

[MAlibdem]

1. I think it's a little dangerous to just assume this

Remember, when you assume, you make an ASS out of U and ME.

And, we need to fight for those votes, i'd be much more comfortable ACTUALLY being up right now.

[TruthIsAll]

2. My assumptions are valid; if you can prove otherwise, do so.

I have done my homework on this. Have you?

TIA

[ProfessorGAC]

12. What's Your Basis For The Undecideds Going 2/3rds?

Undecideds 6 months before an election go 2/3rds for the challenger? Really?

I've never seen any data on this, that would support that contention. Not saying you're wrong, just wondering where you got that data.

The Professor

[knight_of_the_star]

3. Assume nothing

To assume is to leave one vulnerable to a foe attacking from an unexpected angle. We cannot ASSUME anything. Gore and Co assumed that the election wouldn't be rigged in Florida and look what happened to them.

[TruthIsAll]

4. My assumptions are valid, based on historical numbers.

Disregard them if you wish.

I would disregard NBC/WSJ in any case.
Just as I would CNN/Gallup, ABC/WP, IBD.

Kerry is ahead. Saying that does not imply any desire to sit still.

Just want to clear the fog...

[TruthIsAll]

5. We are winning. Kerry landslide? I said it months ago.

TIA

[DenverDem]

6. Don't count on it.

Unless Kerry starts taking an unequivocal stand on something substantive to differentiate himself, the race will be too close to call, and we know what happens then.

[bhunt70]

8. I hope you are right...I mean correct.

[cmd]

7. It doesn't matter what the polls say

I'm still going to work every day to make sure he goes. Things are still looking up in my county. I can't do anything about the rest of the nation, but if I can help move my county back to the D side, I will do it.

edit: join me by working with ACT
http://www.act4victory.org/

[rocktivity]

9. You've expressed a higher opinion of some polls than others

I recall your mentioning Zogby and at least two others. I'm interested in knowing why.

:headbang:
rocknation

[fujiyama]

10. Hell

according to the new Gallup poll (and yes it's the same wacky Gallup that has been very nice to Bush in recent weeks), Kerry leads Bush by one in a matchup, and with Nader it's tied. This poll actually seems to make a lot of sense. I know it's not scientific, but many polls have said about half of Nader's supporters may switch before the election...and let's take that 2.7% Nader got to be 3% support for him now.

When dealing with numbers it's better to take conservative estimates (haha, the only area where it makes some sense to be conservative), so let's only take one third of those Nader voters and give them to Kerry.

Kerry wins by two percent. I will almost guarantee that Kerry's margin of victory will be 2% in November.

Granted that's the popular vote, which is essentially meaningless. All that matters is how he's doing in those battleground states, though I think even there, it's safe to atleast give Kerry one third of Nader's current support.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Now he would win by 2%, but in November

after the conventions and it is clear what a great man Kerry is and great President he will be, he will win by at least 8%.

[fujiyama]

13. Let's hope you are right

As I said, I'm taking conservative estimates, but I am quite confident Kerry will win the popular vote (though it doesn't matter).

I'm also feeling optimistic about his chances at carrying the EC as well. I would just love for Kerry to get over 300 EVs. Of course, I really don't care if he gets 270, or over 500. I just want him to win this.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. Kerry's got a great team

I think he is working closely with Clinton and may very well put Clark on the ticket. If not then Edwards, but he's got the best of the best helping him out here.
And there is no question he will win the pop. vote. Any Dem will.

[fujiyama]

15. I'd be really glad

if he picked Edwards or Clark. I think both of them did a good job in bringing out independants in the primaries.

I'm just worried he'll go with Gephardt, whom I don't have much confidence in.