Virtually all the polls show that right now, its Kerry 52% vs. Bush 48%

[TruthIsAll]

Don't believe the BUSHIT that * is ahead. He is BEHIND. And that is AFTER he shot a $75 million advertising load.

Kerry is AHEAD. And that is BEFORE he spends a measly $25 million in May.

This is the result when you add 2/3 of Nader's support and 2/3 of undecided voters to Kerry's total, a reasonable expectation of the split based on historical evidence.

Approximately 2/3 of undecided voters split to the challenger.
Nader support will also split in that ratio for the Democrat.
And 2/3 may well be a conservative split ratio for Kerry.

So when you see a typical poll:
Bush 43
Kerry 41
Nader 6
Undec 10

Kerry is actually at 41+2/3*16 =41+10.6 = 51.6%

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[Shopaholic]

1. Now the shit will really start flying

If we thought that BushCo had been flinging the dung before, I'm afraid that it will really start getting ugly now!

[MoonRiver]

6. Unfortunately for bushco, the wind does NOT favor them!

It's gonna be real stinky in * country!

[The_camper]

2. darn

I really thought CNN and Fox news was telling me the truth that our great leader had a majority support... hmm... so they might be lying???

[NeonLX]

3. Why is there still so much support for the monkeyman?

That just discourages the sh!t out of me. Is this really a nation of rubes?

[opihimoimoi]

4. PRIDE, false pride does this, prevents one from saying I bet wrong

so they stay the course hoping against all hope bush will come through somehow.

[rock]

5. That's probably not all that far-fetched

And my prediction is a lot of the undecideds are going to go for Kerry.

[TruthIsAll]

7. Kerry is poised to make a move into Landslide territory.

Watch him pull solidly ahead of * by Memorial Day.

How does 55%-45% sound, using the formula:

Real Kerry% = Kerry% + .67*(Nader% + undecided%)