Words of encouragement and a plea for understanding.

[davsand]

I've been really disturbed by some of the panic I see about the polling data lately. The polls are going back and forth and some folks are feeling a sense of hopelessness about November.

I have no problem with them giving voice to that fear--heck--we are here for each other and that includes lending support when the path gets rough. I am worried, however, that we don't always give voice to WHY we should feel good about what is happening.

This was not an easy primary. Kerry was not my choice in the primary, but he IS the one guy that looks to be our nominee for this race. No matter what my feelings were in the primary, he's what the majority of our party chose and he's the one we have to work for unless we abandon sanity (and the Dem party, which is not always associated with sanity!)

I am a Dem, and I will work the full ticket. THAT is what I do, and it is what many partisan folks do. I do it because even IF the candidate is not the one I backed in the primary, that candidate is my party nominee, and that is how it works in our system that is so dominated by the "two" parties.

Polling numbers are never a good indicator this far out, and frankly, they have no way of tracking how motivated any one group is to turn out and VOTE. I'm not minimizing polling data and how useful it can be--but I am saying that I've seen WAY too many times that polls miss things like how active voters are gonna be, and how strong their desire is to actually turn up at the polls on election day.

You can't count on polls that you pay for and you can't count yourself out based on the other guy's polls. THAT is the reality of politics. The guy that pays for the polls usually gets the questions written how he wants--and THAT single factor can skew any poll huge amounts, as can how the poll participants are selected.

I'm personally seeing a lot of folks who are motivated to vote this time. I'm seeing a lot of angry people--and THAT does translate into higher motivation to actually travel to the voting booth. You can't possibly poll for that, and you can't possibly gage how that will impact in any given race. It is a "gut" thing, but I've seen it any number of times, and I am convinced it will play a huge roll this November.

Please, can we maybe quit weeping and can we maybe quit yelling at the folks who are afraid? Can we work to help our fellow Dems and activists understand that this is a long way from the finish line and we can't sit down, nor can we celebrate yet...

Pax to you all, and "stay the course." WE are gonna get this election won if we keep working it.

Laura

[prodigal_green]

1. if Repubs think they're winning

Maybe they'll just decide to stay home on election day.

Could work in our favor actually.

[davsand]

2. You are right.

Complacency is very much a a danger with this kind of thing. NOTHING makes me cringe more than seeing my candidate with a huge lead in a poll way far ahead of an election.

It cuts down on the number of volunteers available (they figure they should help in closer races where it is needed more) or folks decide that campaign contributions should go to races that are more competitive. Either way, it can hurt a candidate when the polls are too lopsided.

THAT is not the case here. If anything, the polls that DO show any leads are fairly close (frequently within the margin of error.) I would almost think the polls are being manipulated to keep it closer than it really is...

Laura

[RoundRockD]

3. I'm trying to do my part to get people registered.

I've already gotten my two sons, who are eligible for the first time this year, to register.

I've also convinced my sister and her family to register this year for the first time.

And, Bush has lost the votes of 2 life-long whacko republicans. (My husband's side of the family, of course.)

That's a start.

[davsand]

4. GOOD for you!

That is exactly what wins--if we ALL do that well at it there is reason to feel optimistic! Good job!

We can't sit down this time--none of us can afford to!

Laura

[damnraddem]

5. Kerry hasn't shown much yet, but think of Gore as a campaigner.

And at this time in 2000, Gore was way behind in the polls.

[davsand]

6. That is a fair thing to comment on.

Remember-GORE did win the popular vote, and Kerry is currently looking MUCH better in the polls than Gore did at this point in his campaign...

Frequently, in sports and in politics, you hear comments about "peaking too early" to go the distance. It helps to remember THAT bit of wisdom as well.

Laura

[KoKo]

7. Thanks, davsand.

:-)'s Good thoughts.