Worried about polls? Read this.

[John_H]

This race is going to come down to turnout--the undecideds and swing voters are just not numerous enough to overcome a large scale turnout effort. Whooley knows it. Rove knows it. The DNC knows it. The RNC knows it. So when will the poll obsessed at DU know it?

Even if you still must be worried about polls, does anyone In their right mind think nader's going to get 6 percent? No? Who's going to get those votes? Chimp?

If you want to win, stop worring about polls and get in gear on the GOTV.

[ronnykmarshall]

1. Thanks!

I'm so tired of handing out these:

[CatWoman]

2. bok, bok, bok

:hi:

[SheilaT]

3. In 1976 I was attending a junior college

on the east coast. On election day, at the start of class, the psych professor said, "I'm sure all of you students are aware that today is election day, and I certainly hope that all of you are registered to vote, and that you'll plan on going to the polls some time today. But I want to remind you that a lower voter turnout favors the Republican party, so if you're a Republican, don't vote."

I laughed out loud, while everyone else (mainly 19 year olds) sat around me in puzzled silence.

[salin]

5. hahaha! Very funny

not sure which is more humorous - the profs statement - or the silent puzzlement.

[SheilaT]

6. I think it was the silent puzzlement.

It was so clear that no one else got it. I wish I could recall the professor's name and contact him, because I often repeat this story, more so this year.

[Kazak]

4. Absolutely!!

Thanks.

[Tempest]

7. Sorry, but you are completely wrong

Swing voters account for 29% of the total voters.

Swing voters favor Bush.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=205

[LeftHander]

9. but you have to agree....

That the GOP efforts to bash Kerry with messages that are hypocritcal....I.E. Voted for granting Bush power to attack Iraq. They slam him for this vote but don't seem to ind that the indiot in chief sent the troops in on a lie....Lobbying and PAc money stuff again who gets into pockets more than the GOP.......that the idea is to so turn off voters that they stay away from the polls....giving the repukes an advantage...

They have nothing to lose by being rotten lying cheating bastards because they always win in doing so....

[Tempest]

10. The premise of the original poster is still wrong

He claimed swing voters don't number enough to make a difference in the election.

"...the undecideds and swing voters are just not numerous enough to overcome a large scale turnout effort"

My cite proves his statement is completely wrong.
29% is a very large number of voters, and it represents those who claim they will be voting in November.

And why are they called "swing voters"?
Because they can swing the results of an election.

[John_H]

19. You missed my point-- polls show that most "swing voters" have decided

Your cite proves the obvious and, as far as this election goes, the irrlevent.

Obviously swing voters number about a third of the electorate and have for decades. The point is that Chimp's policies are so divisive that most of the swing voters have chosen sides in THIS election. That's why we're getting numbers like 48-46. That's six percent undecided, and that percentage will decrease as the election approaches.

Even if you figure the remaining swing voters will break 60-40 in favor of the rethugs (which, if Chimpo keeps screwing the pooch, they won't), you're still talking about an inside-the-margin-of-error spread easily overcome by the well funded GOTV efforts that will be put in place by both parties.

[rockymountaindem]

11. Swing voters favor Kerry.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=507132

[Tempest]

17. Not according to this cite

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=205

[carolinayellowdog]

12. No such thing as a swing voter in solid R and D states

By your definition that the way they swing can affect the election outcome. The only undecideds/independents who can swing anything are those in swing states. And there, I think, they prefer Kerry.

[Tempest]

18. Not sure that's true

Florida is a solid Republican state, yet swing voters gave the win to Gore.

As far as swing voters supporting Kerry in contested states, it's pretty evenly matched. Kerry has support in the midwest where manufacturing jobs have been lost, but Bush has their support in the south and west.

And overall, Bush has their support by a small amount.

[John_H]

20. You need to make up your mind how swing voters will turn the election

"As far as swing voters supporting Kerry in contested states, it's pretty evenly matched." I agree with that statement more than your swing-voters-will-give-it-to-chimp post above.

Combine that fact that swing voters in swing states are evenly matched with the fact that unprecedented numbers of people have made up their minds, and you'll see the importance of Dems getting people out to vote.

[Tempest]

21. You need to follow the thread closer

I said swing voters were "pretty evenly matched".

They still favor Bush overall, which is counter to what the original poster claims.

I've been consistent.

[John_H]

22. So you agree with my original point.

You said "As far as swing voters supporting Kerry in contested states, it's pretty evenly matched."

Swing states are the only states that matter. Like national popular vote polling, who the swing voters support "overall" is irellevent as long as we keep using the electoral college. Chimp could have a 6-1 lead among voters in TX, but he's still only get the same number of electoral votes.

Since you concede that in swing states the swing voters are "pretty evenly matched," you agree with my point that whoever has the best GOTV operation will win, right?

[davsand]

8. I said much of this same thing in a thread I started.

I agree with you completely, and I hope that we can stop smacking each other around in here and in the Dem party.

Polls have no way to measure motivation to vote--and THAT is the key to all of this.

Bless your heat for saying this--we are on the same page!


Laura

[Wapsie B]

13. I still say

that Nader may draw repug voters who can't stand chimpy and who'd never vote Dem. He may end up hurting chimpy more than we think.

[mantis49]

15. Agree.

My husband, for one.

[Wapsie B]

16. And a belated

Welcome to DU mantis49!

[mantis49]

23. Thank you bushwentawol.

n/t

[sangh0]

14. How very odd. The people who start threads worrying about the polls

aren't posting in this thread. I wonder why, since they are obviously very interested in polls.