People, please get some perspective about the polls yesterday.

[Brotherjohn]

So the CV yesterday was that Bush was "holding steady" in approval and even "pulling ahead of Kerry", DESPITE a bad few weeks in Iraq, a lackluster press conference, and the 9-11 hearings. Much of this came out of the WashPost/ABC and CNN/Gallup polls (two polls that typically overestimate Bush's numbers compared to other polls).

Well, the way I read the polls (even these two), Bush STILL has record low approval ratings in every single poll (within margin of error, so statistically speaking, he IS at record low). Ditto for record high disapproval ratings. He is also, statistically speaking, tied with Kerry in just about every poll.
http://www.pollingreport.com

This, I would say, a very lackluster performance. He is treading water. This, actually, DESPITE his prime time press conference, which was obviously an attempt to frame the debate and assure us he was a strong leader who wanted to bring freedom to the world. This DESPITE spending a record $50 Million in one month on anti-Kerry ads. This DESPITE the fact that Kerry has spent almost nothing on counter-ads in that month (but has outgained Bush fundraising in the first quarter of 2004).

So Kerry had a 12-point lead in one CNN/Gallup poll at the height of the primary season, just when he was cinching the nomination and all over the airwaves. We really weren't optimistic enough to think that was in any way real or permanent, were we?

They have been, and will be, virtually tied for some time. And Kerry really hasn't even started campaigning.

Watch the polls over the long haul. Not just yesterday's. Bush's numbers will slowly but surely continue to drop.

[AndyP]

1. you hit it with the 50 million

Kerry has barely done anything at all- and he's even with Bush. Just wait till he pulls out the big guns :) Hey, you give a man enough rope.....

[lutherj]

2. Right. The GOP is trying to goad the Kerry Campaign into spending

their warchest prematurely. Kerry is playing it cool, letting Bush* and Rove squirm.

[West Coast Democrat]

3. I thought the same thing when I saw those polls

And I couldn't see why MSNBC was touting the sudden importance of the Iraq War issue as a positive thing for Bushco. His approval rating on that issue may be higher than Kerry's, but it continues a steep slide. If I were a Bushie, I wouldn't get too excited about a poll showing that Americans are suddenly deeply concerned about Iraq.

[insidious]

4. Polls are definitely misleading

It's obvious that the corporate media is deliberately misleading the public by releasing these numbers. The Washington Post poll questioned a total of 1,200 people. Are 1,200 people enough to determine that the moron is now leading the polls?? I think not. Those schmucks wouldn't even be able to fill an average sized high school gym.

[Gothmog]

5. It is way too early to panic

It is very bad for Bush to have such low approval numbers at this stage of the campaign. The numbers overall tend to favor Kerry.

I am very encouraged about the Kerry's success at fund raising and the fact that this will not be a totally one sided contest in the fall as to commercials and advertising.

This is not the time to panic. It is wierd for Bush's numbers to go up after all of the bad news but remember that he spent $49+ million in attack adds. He can not continue that pace and has scaled back his advertising. Give the public time to let the disasters in Iraq and the rest of the world to sink in.

[Brotherjohn]

9. Also, to let these things sink in:

The Woodward book, the upcoming Joe Wilson book, the upcoming Iraq hearings (Silberman-Robb commission; you think the 9-11 Commission was damaging...!), continued deaths of our soldiers combined with talk of a draft, and the upcoming ad blitzes Kerry is getting in a better and better finaicial position to lauch.

[NewJeffCT]

15. I'm a long ways from confident

But, I guess I'm too much of a pessimist having grown up in New England around so many Red Sox fans... I still remember Dukakis having an 18 point lead in the summer of 1988. Yes, I know Kerry is no Dukakis, but that event will always keep me pessimistic when it comes to elections.

BTW, nice user name - Lord of the Rings, right?

[Canuckistanian]

6. Good strategy. Let them blow the dough early

Bide your time, rebuff the slimers, then start attacking in earnest around late July.
I agree. Don't get discouraged. Let the Repugs keep their sense of satisfaction for a while. Let them write Kerry off. B* is hanging himself with his own rope, slowly but surely.
And remember, June 30th is coming fast and the public will see what a fiasco that will be.

[Brotherjohn]

10. Yes, and let Bush hang himself. Despite the spin, the noose tightens...

... more every day.

[Beetwasher]

7. Of Course

Everything in perspective. This thing is just getting started.

I keep pleading with everyone to ignore Gallup. It's been shown over and over that they are completely corrupt and ABC/WP is not much better.

[mim.k]

11. polls

Although I think that polls can be very biased, I do think that most of the country is still supporting Bush and consider it unpatriotic
not to do so. We have to be aware of the country's blindness if we
hope to ever get the truth out to the vast majority that aren't looking deeply into the issues... and even if Kerry does get ahead of Bush, I worry that Bush's people have the power to change public opinion in a moment's notice. I know that sounds very paranoid but if we're not prepared for those possibilities we may be in for
a tragic result.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi mim.k!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[mim.k]

21. thanks

hi.. and thanks for the welcome!

[0007]

8. ...also the doom dayers have been out in full force.

Tokyo coco sez the problem is with Kerry and junior will be elected president. I say, she's wrong. And her fat friend that is the size of an elephant follows with the same two for a nickle one for a dime garbage.

[Catherine Vincent]

12. What polls?

:shrug:

[CBHagman]

13. Plus I think Bush is running a lot of ads.

I was watching Keith Olbermann on MSNBC last night. Even though I tuned in halfway through his "Countdown" program, the same Bush ad (the one bashing Kerry on support for troops) ran TWICE. I saw that sucker TWICE in less than 30 minutes. Somebody's got a lot of money.

This could easily annoy and wear out the viewers and the effect could dull after a while.

Besides, we have the political rectal thermometer up our collective rear end day and night, 52 weeks of the year. We can't go into hyssterics over every polling of a thousand people.

[Claire Beth]

14. The polls mean NOTHING at this point!

Kerry is in a good position for the time being. I think the trend is changing and more and more want a change from the current administration. :dem:

[Canuckistanian]

16. Just remember this!

Any sitting incumbent president who has polling numbers IN THE LOW FIFTIES during WARTIME is in deep doo-doo, especially seven months before election.
He's going to have to pull a HUGE trick out of his ass to guarantee success in November. And also, that's more time to screw up, more time for the whistleblowers to come forward (still more to come) and lots of time for Kerry to sharpen and reinforce his message.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. John there is another pont many forget

Them polls are seeing the usual spike after a press conference and the spike is not even significant as it is well within the margin of statistical error

[Brotherjohn]

18. Yes, that was one thing I tried to say. The pundits say "despite a...

...lackluster press conference", his numbers remained steady or bumped up a bit.

But I'd say that his numbers didn't go up at all (statistically, which means they didn't), DESPITE the press conference. If the Bush admin had a foot to stand on, their numbers SHOULD have gone up after a press conference. This press conference was free Bush air time engineered BY the Bush admin, FOR the Bush admin, to make them look better. They failed miserably. It didn't work.

[Snellius]

20. It's not helpful to disregard these polls either.

There definitely seems to be some kind of rebound that has less to do with Bush's travails than it does with Kerry watering down his message and presenting himself too much as a wealthy, intellectual Sun-Vally snow-pants elite. Rather than appealing to a dubious UN-to-the-rescue defense -- if he will not come right out for a quick withdrawal -- Kerry may as well ignore the war in Iraq and let Bush dig his own grave and outflank him straight to the war on terrorism.

The need for unity should not blind us to the need for self-criticism. Especially now, early, while we still can change tactics.

[mim.k]

22. I think you're right that it's absolutely essential to be self critical

I was listening to a DemocracyNow broadcast on a college radio station in my town. It was talking about Kerry's campaign in Florida, and they were interviewing an alternative news reporter who was there for one of his speeches. From what I understood, it sounded like Kerry was stating support of continuing the war in Iraq and claiming that he would leave the troops in even past the deadline that Bush gave... that just didn't make any sense to me... I can't imagine that he could really have meant that, and maybe it was taken out of context, but if the report is accurate and unbiased...and he's saying things that are probably not even in line with his politics (although maybe they are, and I'm misinformed) we need to be critical in more ways than one.