Are they just lying about these poll numbers?

[Must_B_Free]

I don't see anything positive to drum up support for Bush, but as the most damning information comes out, it seems noone cares. Is Bush really going up in the polls?

Maybe people have their minds so made up that the supporters get more determined the more bad news comes out?

I just can't explain it. Things are going to hell in a handbag and Bush support is growing?

[JHBowden]

1. Apparently so (i.e. Bush numbers up).

It is only a few percentage points. Perhaps the press conference helped him in some weird way.

[David Dunham]

2. CNN had far too many Repugs in its sample

Gallup, which polls for CNN, always has too many Repugs in its sample. In 2000, they had Bush winning at the end by 4-5% of the popular vote. If we did a poll and had a sample of Dems 40% and Repugs 34%, we'd have Kerry leading. From a realistic standpoint, Gallup should never use a sample that has more Repugs than Dems because in every national election since 1932 more Dems have voted than Repugs. Only Zogby uses a sample that corresponds with this reality. That's why he was the most accurate pollster for the past 3 elections.

[City Lights]

16. Do you have a link that will show this?

I checked around Gallup's site earlier today and couldn't find any details about party affiliation of those sampled. I'd like to be able to share any link with friends/family. Thanks. :-)

[wtmusic]

3. In crises the public rallies support around leaders

Can't believe this will last.

[calimary]

8. Yeah, but the problem is - these crises were all of bush's making.

[PCIntern]

4. Yes they are lying and I'll tell you why...

The cognitive dissonance between the polls and the apparrent hatred of Bush by so many more than hated him in 2000 is so great that the polls themselves become a subject, or meta-subject of the election. Indredibly, people begin to doubt their own sense and feelings which are, at times, better than the published conventional wisdom.

Take heart - we will prevail. Jsut NEVER EVER say that Bush is toast and no sweat. Not until Kerry is sworn in and the moving vans have left for Connecticut - you don't really think he's going back to the Potemkin ranch do you- will I rest in my campaigning for the Dems.

[Karenina]

5. Psy-Ops.

Dey jes be tryin' to
PSYCH YOU OUT!

Who owns the media, owns the polls.
No pun intended.

[AlinPA]

6. My theory about those polls:

1. They stay home all day and watch soaps and game shows which are laced with Bush* ads (negative ads about Kerry)
every 20 minutes. They also get their news from TV and see pro Bush* crap all day.
2. These same people have the time to answer the phone and do the polls.
3. A lot more people are working, otherwise busy, e.g., too busy getting dinner to answer the phone poll.
4. Both groups vote; I think we are only seeing part of the voting public.

Simple minded, but after knowing a lot of senior citizens who are in the first group and seeing TV in hospital waiting rooms, doctors' offices and airports lately, I'm convinced that there is something like a "silent majority" out there who are not answering polls. (sorry about the old Nixon term) They are getting screwed by this administration, they have kids of draft age, they need health care they are worried about their jobs..........

[On the Road]

15. There is Nothing Simpleminded About That, AlinPA

These research firms should know that their samples are skewed and in what direction. They're also skewed by people who have no phones (a group which leans Democratic) and by people who won't take the poll (don't know how that group leans).

They should be upfront about the sample bias so their readers could adjust. But that would cast doubt on their own numbers. Or just simply not do random phone polls. Of course, that would put them out of business. The solution is to simply not talk about it.

The candidates' own internal polls, which are more accurate -- you can bet they adjust for this.

[agincourt]

7. I think the polls are off somewhat,

but I think Bush got a bump from the Fallujuah body desecration. These wars always seem to favor the evil ones and Bush was lucky that they put on that show. Logical or not, it helps justify his war.

[IronLionZion]

9. screw the polls

hopefully a lot of conservatives stay home on election day

[eleny]

10. I've been thinking that today, too

After watching Tweety literally salivating over the numbers, I just shook my head and doubted them completely. False numbers albeit close plus the electronic voting machines tie in together too tightly.

[Daisey Mae]

11. There were/are several different polls

But the two that they are touting ,have Bush in front... the ones showing Kerry up aren't mentioned... They are trying to dishearten us, thats all.......

[Junkdrawer]

12. Look deep into my eyes...You are sleepy, very sleepy...

You are very discouraged. You will stay home Nov. 2nd. You will not vote this year. When I snap my fingers, you will wake up and remember nothing.

[sal]

13. * spent 49 mil in March, spending like crazy in April

and Kerry is still in a statistic dead heat in a rigged poll? I'll take it.

[Imajika]

14. What is Kerry's message?

That Bush is bad? That is no way to win an election.

Kerry has not put forth in simple, straightforward terms a positive message that a majority of the American public can wrap its brain around.

Kerry comes off as the wise fatherly type droning on and on about how bad the current leadership is - sorry but that doesn't win elections.

So Kerry is not against the war in Iraq, only against Bush's strategy? That won't cut it. The issue may as well be off the table.

Is Kerry against the Patriot Act or not? Is he against Bush's massive unfunded "No Child Left Behind" mandate or not? Yeah, Bush is not doing much for Middle East peace, but if Kerry supports Bush's assertion that Israel can go on assassinating Palistinian leaders and gobble up part of the West Bank forever - how does that make him much different than Bush on this critical issue?

It is not enough to point out what he would tweak, Kerry needs to talk to Americans about what he would seriously do differently and how that course would lead to a brighter future for all of us. Arguing for a slight course correction does not win elections.

Kerry needs to present a positive, exciting (or at least interesting) message with a few simple themes that are easy for Americans to remember and associate with Democrats.

Right now Kerry basically gets the vote of everyone who hates Bush plus the core Democrats who could always be counted on to vote for him anyway - that just ain't a majority and it probably won't ever be. Kerry will need to do more than he is doing to win.

Imajika