If Graham is the candidate, can he take Florida?

[bluedem]

I'm having a hard time deciding which of the candidates to support. It's crazy, I like everything that comes out of Dean's mouth, but there's something I can't put my finger on about him. Kucinich too. I like his message but (and please don't get mad at me), I don't think he could beat Bush. After hearing Graham on LK Live last night, I think he'd appeal to a wide range of middle of the roaders and perhaps steal some of those red state voters.

And taking Florida would be the icing on the cake.

Anyway, I think all the candidates are going to be on C-SPAN tonight at 8 p.m.

[fishnfla]

1. Latest polls showed

for what its worth, Graham was trailing dumdya in these parts. That was about a month ago. Still early yet

[SoFlaJets]

2. we NEED Senator Graham

to give us a chance of getting a fair election down here in ahem the Sunshine state.I hope he's on the ticket with Howard Dean that is my dream ticket

[AndyTiedye]

3. BFEE OWNS Florida, lock stock and barrel

from the politicians, to the folks who decide who is on the voter list and who isn't, down to the voting machinez themselves.

Didn't we learn anything in 2000?

[Doctor Pedantic]

13. Dean-Graham 2004!

I agree that Dean-Graham is a "dream ticket." Graham is popular in Florida, and he was the only Senator among the candidates for the Democratic nomination that voted against the war. All we need to do to win Florida is get the Gore + Nader votes, and I think Graham as a VP candidate could reallyn deliver.

I think Dean sees things this way, too. When he was asked last night on Larry King about potential VPs, he mentioned a few things that would be desirable, including someone who's from the South and has Washington experience. I sure don't think he was talking about Edwards....

[CMT]

4. yes

all of our candidates are currently trailing in their homestates (at least they were--it has been a while since i've seen a fresh poll). In Oct 2002, Dean was behind Bush in Vt--that is the last poll I've seen. I have an idea if they repolled he would be ahead of Chimpy. But yes, I think Graham could carry Florida or at least make it very competitve and force the Chimp to spend a lot of time there.

[The Backlash Cometh]

5. Graham can take Florida & a whole lot more.

What concerns me is that he may be more aligned with Lieberman on issues like the draft. That may present a problem for him as we approach election time, but such concerns would be inconsequential if he was the V.P. on the ticket. Then his presence would be all cake.

[cjbuchanan]

6. Florida

This is going to be a battleground no matter who gets the nomination.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It Will Only Be A Battleground If There's A Southerner On Top Of The

Ticket.

If not, the Dems better spend their money elsewhere.

In fact if they don't have a midwesterner or southerner on top of the ticket they might as well write off most of the south and border states and go for the Electoral College equivalent of the staight flush ; all the northeast and the Pacific West and a few scattered states in between.

Facts are stubborn thing... We ignore them at our peril.....

[cjbuchanan]

25. however

I see what you are saying but I think Florida is a bit different from other Southern states. I say this because there are a lot of retired individuals in Florida and more then a few of them are from the Northeast.

I think a strong message could make Florida a battle.

[Orangepeel]

7. probably

It isn't guaranteed, but there is a very good chance. Graham is very well liked in Florida. He won his last Senate election with more than 65% of the vote. He'd have a very strong organization as well because of his past statewide runs.

[madfloridian]

8. I don't trust the polls to tell us.

I really don't. By now, we are seeing mostly disgust with Bush. Yet the news does not show it. The polls do not reflect it. So how do we really know?

[whoYaCallinAlib]

9. I would think Graham has a better chance to take Florida

than any other dem.

[JI7]

11. graham can take florida and much more

i believe graham can take florida and many other states.

[tomp]

12. with or without voting fraud? nt

[Le Taz Hot]

20. That's my question

and maybe Floridians can offer an answer. It's pretty much established that there was massive elections fraud in Florida in 2000. My understanding is that the same machinations are still in place for a repeat -- i.e., they're gearing up to "purge" voters again and the Diebold machines are in place in about 40% of Florida's precincts. To my knowledge, none of this has been remedied and, from my understanding, it's gotten worse. (Please correct me if I'm wrong here.) So, the question is, under these circumstances, is Florida winnable for any Dem., including Graham?

[GBD4]

14. Absolutely

Will he win with 65% of the vote like he usually does? No. But will it be a clear win that would not require a recount? Yes!

[GumboYaYa]

15. Graham owns the Democratic machine in FL.

The extra votes he gets just from having his machine behind the ticket wins FL IMO.

[Starpass]

16. Agree (but I want him as a VP) don't underestimate the "machine"

that's the whole enchillada in politics and he has the machine to go head to head with the Bush-mafia and it's bro Jeb.

[GumboYaYa]

17. Exactly and it doesn't matter where he is on the ticket

as long as his machine is out in force on election day.

[Dob Bole]

18. Graham would win, by my estimation...

Florida and West Virginia, at the very least. He could also make Georgia competitive and perhaps carry Tennessee. My only question, though, is how much experience does Graham have with black voters? That's going to be crucial in winning any Southern states, particularly the ones that Clinton carried.

[seafan]

19. Take a look at this electoral college map for Graham....

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-graham.htm

It puts his potential electoral vote total at 287 to Bush's 258. This graphic was created by political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia at http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college.htm


Yes, indeed, Graham is the man to run AND to defeat Bush.

[seafan]

24. While we're looking at this with a critical eye.... here are links to...

some of the other candidates' electoral vote tally estimates, according to Sabato's calculations.

Dean, 264 vs Bush's 274: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-dean.htm

Edwards, 275 vs Bush's 263: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-edwards.htm

Gephardt, 276 vs Bush's 262: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-gephardt.htm

Kerry, 264 vs Bush's 274: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm

Lieberman, 287 vs Bush's 258: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-lieberman.htm

And Graham again, 287 vs Bush's 258: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-graham.htm


Although these are, at best, estimates by a seasoned political analyst, we need to start looking at where the rubber meets the road as far as what the electoral votes might resemble. Looks like Graham, Lieberman, Gephardt and Edwards are most likely to overtake Bush in the fight for the electoral college. Time will surely tell on this one.

[kmart35]

21. Why not Graham and Dean ticket???

I'd love to see Graham as President, since he has tons of knowledge, experience (Senator & Governor), and political maturity. (He also has always spoken against the war against Iraq and voted against it.) I wouldn't mind Dean as a likeable vicepresident. This would give some charisma to the ticket & I'd love to see Dean become a bit more seasoned and less green before running the country. Then Dean would be ready in 2008...

Karen

[rhino91063]

22. I think the reverse would look even better

The Dean Graham ticket. It is what got bush close enough to steal the election. You put the Charisma as the lead part of the ticket and balance it out with experienc and maturity.

[lkinsale]

23. Graham would be the better president

I just don't get this thing that Dean has "charisma." Maybe on the net he does, but whenever I see him on TV, he doesn't.

I really think Graham has more personal appeal than Dean, he comes across as friendlier and far more at ease with all kinds of people. He's never uptight or annoyed, but he can put a crack in his voice and get attention when he wants to.

Of course I will vote for whoever is the nominee, these are personal opinions. But I'm getting more and more cynical about this assumption that Dean has a charisma that would have widespread appeal.

So, give Dean some time to learn the ropes under Graham, relax and figure out how Washington works, get some national experience under his belt.