Wouldn't Exit Polling Blow the Whistle on BBV?

[MallRat]

Here's what I'm thinking:

Pretend it's Election Day. Let's say you're working at the polling desk for a major broadcast news network or a newspaper, and you're running exit polls in select precincts in Ohio in an effort to project the winner of the state on election night.

The exit poll numbers come in from precincts both with and without touch-screen voting. For example:
Precinct A (paper ballot): Kerry 53%, Bush 47%
Precinct B (touch-screen): Kerry 55%, Bush 45%

Later that night, the polls close and the official numbers start to come in:
Precinct A: Kerry 52%, Bush 48% (2 pt error)
Precinct B: Kerry 50%, Bush 50% (10 pt error)

Now of course, there's going to be inherent error in exit polling, depending on who and when you sample. But then you look at all the Ohio precincts with touch-screen voting and compare their exit poll errors against those precincts with paper ballots... and you notice something odd.

The exit poll error is consistently greater in touch-screen precincts, and in every case, the error always favors Bush.

Assuming that there's nothing really tinfoily going on (i.e., massive media conglomerate conspiracy), wouldn't alarm bells start going off in newsrooms across the country? In other words, could exit polls serve as a check against vote manipulation?

-MR


edited to change my math errors... sorry.

[central scrutinizer]

1. it didn't in 2002

Exit polls showed Max Cleland and other Democrats leading, but they ended up losing. In fact, Voter News Service decided to scrap exit polling after that.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=29555
November 5, 2002
Its new computerized systems fraught with bugs and problems, the consortium Voter New Service has decided to scrap its exit polling work, saying it could not guarantee its reliability.

VNS, which provides media organizations with state and national polling data, said the decision would not affect the organization's effort to count the actual vote. Officials also said they hoped to have limited exit polling information, to assist members in projecting individual races.

Still, the decision was a major setback for VNS, a consortium comprising ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and The Associated Press. The service had completely rebuilt its system in response to problems encountered during the 2000 election, when television networks twice used its erroneous projections to call a winner in the controversial Florida presidential race two years ago.


added link on edit

[ramblin_dave]

3. Those weren't exit polls

They were regular media polls. The VNS did do exit polls that day but the data collected was supposedly botched by new computer systems and never released.

[Stephanie]

2. Exit polling exposed the Florida theft

So what did they do? Announced that the polling was flawed, and shut down the VNS.

[MallRat]

4. If there's no VNS...

...then are the individual broadcast networks doing their own exit polling this year?

ARE they doing exit polling at all?

-MR

[MallRat]

7. shameless, self-serving KICK

:kick:

[gWbush is Mabus]

5. i wouldn't trust anybody doing the exit polls (pro-lifers, cnn, fox, etc.)

[MallRat]

6. So you subscribe to the media conspiracy theory?

...that if the exit polls showed clear evidence of selective vote manipulation in favor of Bush in touchscreen precincts, the networks would kill the story?

-MR

[never_get_over_it]

8. In 2000

"They" said the exit polls were wrong and even had Congressional hearings I think. "They" blamed VNS and talk of no exit polling etc etc. But VNS wasn't wrong and more people belived they voted for Gore and did - which is why the exit polls turned out like they did. I think it is absolutely necessary to do exit polling for back up proof if we get screwed once again during the count....not that it will do any good....but the EXIT POLLS WERE CORRECT!!!

[SoCalDem]

9. Exit polls will only "confuse" us

so obviously they will not be "needed"..</sarcasm>

The only thing that matters in the end, is the total vote count that is certified..

Who counts 'em
How they count 'em
Who certifies 'em

and if the vote "comes out wrong", there is always SCOTUS

[rock]

10. Yes, but legally they mean nothing

Suppose everybody indicated they had voted for Gore (in the exit poll), and suppose electronic voting machines were used and showed that Bush got all the votes. So? You wouldn't expect the officals or the politicians to do something would you?

[Mountainman]

11. Even if it is proved that the election was rigged it would stand

What I don't understand is why wait till after the election to find out there was fraud. If we fear that fraud could happen, why don't we "fix" the machines before the election and then secure them so that they can't be tampered with?

Am I missing something here? It seems we are willing to wait until the horses are out of the barn before we are willing to put a lock on the door!

[bobbieinok]

12. THERE WILL BE NO EXIT POLLS IN 2004...because

1. exit polls were correct in every state but FL in 2000 - this gives major support to the 'suspicion' that FL 2000 was a fraud and a theft

2. there were no exit polls in 2002 - just imagine if AGAIN exit polls in GA, eg, showed voters voted Cleland and the dem for governor BUT the 'certified' results GAVE the election to the republicans

3. there will be no 'legitimate, approved' exit polls in 2004 - so the 'results' cannot be easily questioned

[tom_paine]

13. AP "Exit Polling" will be as trustworthy as Soviet Pravda "Polling"

That's why the Busheviks maneuvered the destruction of VNS. The more organizations, the harder it is to influence and control.

AP is a single organization shot through with Bushevik Ops, Loyalists and Mockingbirds and thus you can be sure that, after that "brief period of instability, comrades" that "Exit Polling" will NOW always agree with the Bushevik Party-Approved Results.

</sarcasm off>

We face great danger here. Grave danger.

[MallRat]

14. Very educational, folks.

Thank you for the insight. Now I'm REALLY depressed.

I need a beer.

:beer:

-MR

[tom_paine]

15. Don't get depressed. Too much work to do to Restore the Old Republic

Let your fear and depression turn to anger, and righteous resolve.

The stakes are so high, we dare not lose! We carry the banner of the Old American Republic, the American Experiment will perish under the bootheels of the Imperials.

We MUST not fail!

If you despair, here are some things to do that should make you feel better:

1) Donate to the Kerry Campaign

2) Volunteer for the Kerry campaign

3) Write a Letter to the Editor

4) Write Bu$h Lie$ on your money, then spend it and send the messengers flying!

5) Speak to people -- it's very rewarding and the OPPOSITE of depressing when someone say "Holy shit! I can;t believe you were right about Bush!"

6) Use your imagination.

NEVER GIVE UP! DON'T DESPAIR!

[RedEagle]

17. Join the Clean up Crew

Join the Clean up Crew at: www.blackboxvoting.org

Donate at the .org site

Get on your legislators and local officials

Write the people who will authorize the purchase of the machines. Let them know its YOUR money they are spending and you want nothing less than systems that produce a voter verified paper ballot.

Boycott paperless systems. In any state that you can do so, vote absentee, demand a paper ballot as your right to observe that your vote is recorded correctly.

If you don't fix the voting system, NOTHING will change.

[seabeyond]

16. we watched it in florida 200

we know what it looks like. we should be able to see