So, Where Do You Think Things Stand Tonight??

[BabsSong]

So many posts. So many thoughts. Some bad things have happened for Team Bush. Some good things have happened. Some good things have happened for Team Kerry. Some bad things have happened. Have any perceptions really been changed in the public?? So where are we this evening in mid-April?? Are the people "hearing" and "turning" or are things pretty much as usual?? Most importantly, will things change dramatically---if so, for whom and when?? Any inklings or just wishful thinking?? Any suggestions for Team Kerry???

[ACK]

1. I see a change

I have heard at least two former conservative voters in conservative Northern VA say they were voting Kerry because of all the lying and the fact they did not believe in sending US troops all over the world to fight in useless wars.

A couple of these Raygun conservatives who are not rabid but are easily bribed with tax cuts and such and one of these is definitely a former Bush voter.

[stellanoir]

3. a lifelong Republican called NPR's

"the connection" this morning. He had just disaffiliated with the R party and said he was totally disgusted with * and would vote for Kerry.

When asked if he thought that the Democrats had a better solution for Iraq he said. " a bologna sandwich could come up with a better solution."

[Avalux]

2. Well -

from a personal perspective, both of my parents (previous chimp supporters) are now supporting Kerry. My dad, a veteran, is very distressed out the situation in Iraq; he wants to know why the hell there was no plan, why our soldiers are dying and is even saying we went there for oil(!). Wants something done and wants the Commander-in-Chief to take responsibility. My parents have made a complete 180.
If they can do it so can others - I think they are, even if we're not hearing about it.

[hippiegranny]

4. i see and hear of many changes

think about this:

the country was split almost 50/50 in 2000. how many gore voters will vote for bush? how many nader voters will vote for nader again or for bush? how many bush voters do we hear about DAILY who don't trust the monkey any more?

based on the above equations, i think we have the hearts and minds of the majority. what is at stake is the media distortion of our candidate which will provide the cover for cheating. that will definitely be a factor.

[yorgatron]

5. a kernel of doubt has entered many minds IMHO

were they merely asleep at the wheel,or something far,far worse?

[doni_georgia]

6. tide may be beginning to turn

Up until now the polls have have been pretty consistent - dems - Kerry, repugs - Bush, independents - undecided. Think the Newsweek poll showed a change.

[underpants]

7. When the opponent is screwing up doen't call timeout

let the flow of the play continue.

He is right to stay out of it Kerry shouldn't appear to be trying to capitalize on American deaths. And yes he does have an argument AGAINST the war, he was lied to as well as everyone else.

He isn't losing ground so don't start digging.

[brokensymmetry]

8. As Ray-gun asked -

Are you better off today than you were four years ago? People vote based on that.

Is the economy better? How many people are doing better economically than they were 4 years ago?

Do people feel safer and more secure?

Do people feel more or less free?

And, lastly - how will people react to a steady flow of dead and permanently maimed US soldiers?

The question is not will Kerry win the White House. Rather, we must ask whether we have a chance to take back the Congress. Seriously.

[underpants]

9. If we are in danger and only W can make us safe....why are we in danger?

Yes that is one of the base lines Kerry needs to repeat

Are you better off? (the "Misery index" is part of this)

What has happened "ON HIS WATCH"??????

[BabsSong]

10. Observation to my own post

Bush (the great hahaha communicator) wouldn't be holding a real live press conference tomorrow night if everything was peachy keen. Oh, they will have this damned thing so controlled that assholes will be so tight as not to let out a whiff of wind; but, still, he would never appear unless they shoved the prick out and said "start talking and clean this up, you fuck head". And the more he comes out in public, the worse things are for him because he's a walking idiot!!! Not only "bring it on" but put the little slime out improvising and let the nation see what's really leading us.

[AlinPA]

11. Kerry is holding his own. His campaign is not as "passionate"

as it was during the primaries.

He should hit Bush* on the aircraft carrier stunt because of the failure in Iraq and make Bush* look stupid. This worked during the primaries.

Rove is so screwed up now, all he has is the media to try to hold things together for them. He may lose a little loyalty but with several hundred million$, he can buy a lot of "reporters", writers for Time, Newsweek, etc. and producers of TV talk shows.

I think republicans are not aware of the AA Radio impact can have this summer.

[swag]

12. Incremental progress - gotta keep working

The support base of the troglodytes seems to be slowly eroding, though the rock-solid core remains. People have difficulty admitting to themselves that they made a bad choice, so just as they have trouble selling losing stocks, they have trouble ditching their presidential choices, no matter how disastrous those choices have proven to be.

Some factors that might have an impact over the next few months:

Iraq - further deterioration, sorry to say. The negative public attitude toward Buschco will accelerate and be reinforced by the Woodward and Wilson books and public appearances. In addition, the Plame investigation will yield some ripe fruit. Even non-readers will get the whiff of scandal and shame from all of this.

Employment - The March job number will have to be repeated for a few months in a row, help-wanted ads will have to rise, hourly wages are going to have to rise, and workweeks will have to firm up in order for most folks to take seriously the notion that the economy is firming up job-wise. Not acceptable: counting all those folks as "employed" who have been forced to spend their days selling shit on eBay for a living. Real job growth will have to firm up. Sorry, I don't see that happening, especially not with the rash of new layoffs and the lack of seasonal factors that so pumped the March employment creation report.

What I do think the March number will do is raise the official unemployment rate toward June (a critical month, according to some studies, for the pre-election employment situation) to around 6%. This will happen because "discouraged" workers will rejoin the job-hunt on the strength of the strong job-creation and "initial claims" numbers, so the official unemployment rate will begin to slowly approach the real unemployment rate. I could be wrong about all of this, of course.

Medicare scandal - the wrath of the seniors has not played out on this yet. Older voters will take this out on the President.

Presidential credibility - this might be the biggest factor in the months to come: the executive branch has autodestructed on the believability front. The public is more inoculated against Republican bullshit than it was in 2000.

We must all keep up the pressure on Sens, Reps, local and national media to get the story straight, to quit eating the administration's moldy cheese so willingly.

WRONG DIRECTION - The majority think the country is going in the "wrong direction" according to recent polls. The majority is certainly right. It is a disaster for the country that things have gone so badly awry, and our country has shared its disaster with an unwilling world. But the small silver lining in this sky full of clouds is that public discontent gives us our best chance of ridding ourselves of this awful government of Bush/Cheney, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, Rice, Frist, Delay, Hastert.

after-work ramble. sorry. I think we can win, but we're a long way away.