If Kerry is at 53% in final pre-election polls, his chances of winning are

[TruthIsAll]

... virtually 100%, depending on the number of polls. Lets calculate the probability assuming a total universe of anywhere from 1 to 10 polls.

Lets calculate the probability that Kerry would win the election, based on final polling results: 53% Kerry, 47% Bush.

This is a useful calculation because we want to determine the probability that Bush stole the election, if he had 47% final polling numbers, so that each of n polls had him losing to Kerry by 6%.

We assume the following:
1 the winner is the one who receives the most popular votes (i.e. over 50%). There is no electoral college.
2) there are no 3rd party candidates.
3) the polls are independent of each other.
4) Kerry is ahead by 53-47 in each of n polls, where n = 1,2,5,7,10.
5) The polls are given the night before the election.
6) the Margin of Error (MOE) for each poll is = +/-3%.
7) the polls are all fair and unbiased.

This means that for any single poll, there is a 95% probability that Kerry would receive 50-56% and Bush 44-50%.

In addition, There is a .05 probability the result will fall outside the MOE, evenly split with a .025 probability that Kerry's election percentage will be over 56% and a corresponding .025 probability Bush's percentage will be over 50%.

Thus the total probability that Kerry would receive over 50%, given that he is ahead by 53-47 in a given poll is: p(Kerry)= 0.975

The probability Bush would receive over 50%, given that he has 47% in a given poll is: p(Bush)= 0.025

Here are the probabilities that Bush would win fairly (no fraud)
where n = total number of final polls:

n Probability (that Bush won fairly)
1 0.025 or 1 out of 40 (unlikely)
2 0.000625 or 1 out of 1600 (extemely unlikely)
5 9.76563E-09 or 1 out of 102,400,000 (1 out of 102 million)
7 6.10352E-12 (forget it)
10 9.53674E-17 (really forget it)

We will know the fix is in if the 10 final poll numbers have the race at 51-49%, for we all know that Bush's numbers are heading to the basement. Kerry should receive a minimum of 53%.

[David Dunham]

1. Almost 100%.

[Dover]

2. Weren't the early polls in 2000 similar, in favor of Gore?...eom

.....

[rabid_nerd]

4. no

[MinnFats]

3. This looks like lots of work, but you forgot to factor in...

....the Brooks Brothers Rioters, who by this fall will surely be legion, with battalions prepared to embark for any state that looks close, to intimidate, plunder ballot boxes, stuff ballot boxes, jimmy electronic machines, throw dark-skinned people off voter lists, shout down any opposition, pull all manner of dirty tricks and pay through an unlimited slush fund to buy any local official needed to bring about the "correct" result.

[LiberalFighter]

5. We need to tail those bastards and ***** them on sight!!

Whoops... If we lived during the pre-historic times when there were no laws.

What could we do? Tail them and have our own detail to counter their activities. Need to consider all possibilities and how to counter them. Scope out the places that may involve illegal activities and determine the layout and what could be done. Find a place to shove them into a room and lock the door on them. Set them up before they reach their objective.

[MinnFats]

6. i'm not at all sure what to do with them.

I abhor violence and besides, they can afford more hired thugs and guns.

certainly their actions should be recorded, taped, photographed etc. for evidentiary purposes.

As i say, I really do fear they'll turn up in large numbers if there are a few battleground states that are very close.

There will be more of them than last time, because word has gotten around that by acting as a thug for the Bush team, you can earn yourself a high-paying patronage job in government or with the party.....

so i want to get a dialogue going on about them....



greetings

[patricia92243]

7. Remember Howard Dean's huge numbers?

[dsc]

8. Several problems

First you are leaving out Nader. Thus it won't be 53 to 47. I highly doubt Kerry will be above Carter's 51. Also, and way more importantly, you are leaving out the fact this is a state by state race. If Kerry is at 53 due to being at 75 in places like CA and NY he will still lose with that percentage.

[AndyTiedye]

9. 53-47 Means that Kerry LOSES

Kerry Needs at least 57% just to overcome the built-in Republican advantage in the Electoral College.

Then there are the Diebold Republican Electing (DRE) Machinez.

Some key Georgia elections in 2002 deviated by as much as 16% from the final polls.
The shifts were all in favor of the Republicans. They were all Diebold machinez
running recently-patched, uncertified software.

For Bush* to "win" while polling in the 30's (which is where he is headed)
wouldn't pass the stink test -- unless there is a third party candidate.
With Nader in the race, he might be able to pull it off, with a lot of help
from the friendly media.

[TruthIsAll]

11. No Presidential election has ever seen 51% popular vote lose

Look it up. If Kerry gets 52%, he is a sure winner, unless...

You are right about Diebold. I have posted on the odds of 4 of 8 2002 senate races with final polls favoring Dems way outside the MOE all going for the Repukes.

[TruthIsAll]

10. I know I am leaving out Nader; that is an assumption I make

for simplicity. We can assume that the Nader effect will be minor (under 1%).

Kerry will never pull 75% in Cal. or NY.

He will get 55-60% in Cal and 60-65% in NY.

[x-g.o.p.er]

12. zero

Throw out your formulas and probabilities. The fix is in, and unless Kerry gets 56-58% actual, he's done for.