What are the chances of a major deterioration in Iraq

[Mattforclark]

within the next month?

With Sadr declaring Jihad, Falluja, Bush's continued mismanagement...

[Junkdrawer]

1. Er, isn't that like the odds of rain in a thunderstorm?

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/04/international/middleeast/04CND-IRAQ.html?ex=1081742400&en=8a4fac93536c39a5&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

[jean]

2. I say 50-50 only because we have no control over "the unsurgents"

[Mattforclark]

6. My main hope is that Sistani will step in

and stop Sadr. I don't know how much will and capacity he has to do that, however. It's probably not likely that Bush will do anything intelligent.

[against all enemies]

13. You will get your wish

as soon as the Shi'ite majority finds out we will not let them rule as a majority, he will step in. It won't be pretty.

[T Bone]

3. Could it really deteriorate more than it has ?

Surely not, they will soon be welcoming us as liberators won't they ? That's what Dick Cheney told us.

[Mattforclark]

7. It could be much worse

Yes, it could easily be worse than it is now.

[Aidoneus]

4. define "deterioration"?

for whom?

For Iraq the "deterioration" was the invasion and occupation itself. Rolling back this situation is not any real tragedy in itself. :shrug:

[wuushew]

5. On a side note I predict an increase in helicopter crashes

April signifies the return of the spring sandstorm season in Iraq.

[SW FL Dem]

8. Love your Avatar

Tough to see it today though :(

[asjr]

9. 100%

It will continue to get worse. Bremer makes me sick. He says they will stop it. Ha Ha. He acts as if it is the Iraqis who invaded our country and we are the ones who need to fight back. Bush will regret this, not so much because he didn't know what he was doing, but because of the deaths of our military. If someone in this administration is not held to account I would be afraid of what might happen with the populace. People who are kept down (including Iraqis) will tolerate only so much before they rebel.

[David Dunham]

10. It looks like it has already begun. Bush has united all Iraq against us.

[izzie]

11. I do not know dates but it is a mess.

And putting the GOP in charge of the news coming out is not helping. We may have the greatest army in the world but we just can not seem to win the wars!The WH is really starting to look crazy with all the good we are doing over there coming from their lips, as we watch the country meld down on TV and the INTERNET. Is it true we have over 11,000 hurt men that have come out?And now our govt are going to give them demo racy with no elections and quisling running the place. If that works I will vote for Bush!

[The Lone Liberal]

12. Major Deterioration

implies that the situation has reach some form of stability. I do not see the situation currently being anywhere close to stable.

[Ilsa]

14. My husband said "Take me to 115%

on the reactor please." A quote from The Hunt for Red October.

That's his answer. Mine's 90%. I always hedge just a little.

[HawkerTyphoon]

15. I voted 100%

And it's already started. Before it's over, there will be a civil war that will kill 100,000 Iraqis. (Some of them might actually be innocent bystanders.)

Either the Sunnis, with the remnants of Saddam's military will take over again, and there will be a new dictator, or the country (assembled by the Brits) will split into the obvious three parts:

1. Kurdistan in the north (in which case Turkey will invade)

2. Sunni Land (East Syria?)

3. Shia Land (West Iran?)

BTW, the sooner we get out, the sooner the war will be settled, with the less total death.

Note: I predicted this BEFORE the Busheviks invaded.
Proof? -- Just ask Hawker Hurricane

[HawkerHurricane]

16. He did. Really.

I think he first said it in 1991, when we thought Desert Storm would take Saddam out.

Since then, in 2002, while I was 'over there', he said it again.

Best bet would be to divvy it up into three parts, and tell the Iranians, Syrians, Turks and all three parts that 'These are the borders, respect them or lose things you are fond of, like your lives...'

[name not needed]

17. Its already started

I don't want to think about what will happen to our troops once the shit really hits the fan.

[Bride of Cthulhu]

18. I'ts already happening.

[Ksec]

19. Huge , this brainstorm of Bushs to put a warrant on the Shiite cleriq

is really gonna make things volatile. You have to wonder if Bush has a brain sometimes.