1998: Super-Computer Predicts Runaway Greenhouse Effect

[Minstrel Boy]

A story from The Guardian, Nov 3, 1998:

Large swathes of the planet will be plunged into misery by climate change in the next 50 years, with many millions ravaged by hunger, water shortages and flooding, according to evidence published yesterday.

Findings from Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Change presented to 170 countries in Buenos Aires show that parts of the Amazon rain forest will turn into desert by 2050, threatening the world with an unstoppable greenhouse effect.

The startling findings are the result of billions of calculations made by the world's biggest super-computer, installed at the Hadley Centre in Berkshire. The latest figures show the earth is heating up fast, with 1998 already the hottest year since reliable records began 140 years ago.

...

Perhaps the most startling finding is the prospect of a runaway greenhouse effect after 2050. It has been thought that the speed of global warming would be moderated by the extra growth in plants and trees made possible because of more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This carbon dioxide fertiliser effect stimulates plants to grow faster.
http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/envronmt/glowarm4.htm

Want to see what a Runaway Greenhouse Effect looks like?

Within a few years, the situation goes totally out of hand. Temperatures just keep on rising. And as they do, more and more water on Earth begins to evaporate. The sea level starts to drop again. If you’re one of those poor souls who had his country or city flooded when the ice caps melted, you might be glad to find the sea retreating again. But don’t put that flag out yet. What you’re witnessing, is the end of the world. Nothing more, nothing less.

Here’s how it goes. As the temperatures rise, more water evaporates. But as more water evaporates, our atmosphere gets thicker -- causing the temperatures to rise even more. And as the temperatures rise even more, even more water evaporates. And as even more water evaporates... You got it: there’s a chain reaction going on. The dreaded ‘runaway greenhouse effect’ has just kicked in.

Governments and scientists will desperately look for a way to turn the tide. But they won’t find one. There’s just no way you can stop something as mighty as the Earth’s climate. Although our politicians might still mumble some reassuring words to prevent a general panic, deep within they will realise how bad the situation really is. A few years more, and our planet will no longer be habitable. All life is about to vanish from the planet formerly known as Earth. There is no escape, not even a remote possibility things will improve.

You can see the best evidence for that hovering in the night sky: the planet Venus. For many years, scientists wondered why Venus has an atmosphere so hot that lead and tin actually melt in it. Only in the late 1990s they realised that Venus too has undergone the runaway greenhouse effect. Its atmosphere is so dense, incoming solar heat cannot escape from it.

http://www.xs4all.nl/~mke/Runaway_greenhouse.htm

[NaderIsMyHero]

1. By 2050 are you kidding me...we don't have 15 years left...eom

[gristy]

2. Sea level dropping because the atmosphere is holding more moisture?

That's a new one. Personally, I'm leaning towards the theory of an ice age because of the ocean circulation currents shutting and warm equaltorial water no longer warming the northern hemisphere. Past records would seem to indicate that this is what is in store for us.

On edit: This story is from 1998. Not even worth posting. Climate change is real, but a lot has been learned in 6 years.

[papau]

4. the models are new - and the 98 model had many problems - but

I still see global warming as the real problem.

too many "independent" models are coming to the same conclusion - but perhaps they are all using a bad approach?

In any case a year 1500 type temp - as in cold - would not be a problem.

An ice age in 10,000 year as a problem would mean we had beaten back the rape of the earth for a buck by Bush and friends, not fallen into global warming - indeed I'd have a hard time seeing as a problem!

:-)

[Minstrel Boy]

7. now there's an interesting take:

"An ice age...would mean we had beaten back the rape of the earth for a buck by Bush and friends"

Every cloud has a silver lining. Unless the cloud is so thick that silver melts.

[papau]

12. Heck of a choice - ice age that we barely survive, or run away heat

that we do not survive.

Guess I'm an optimist!

:-)

[greenman3610]

5. uncertainty

there's a lot of uncertainty here. I believe that
global warming is real, and there are
a large number of wild cards in any predictions.

1) collapse of North Atlantic current jolts us into mini
ice age ( see the new movie "Day After Tomorrow", based on the
book Global Superstorm).

2) Feedback mechanisms behave unexpectedly.
More moisture equals more clouds, which
reflect heat...

3) or, carbon input and heating increase due to
vast carbon release from melting permafrost and
>carbonic acidification of ocean releases
CO2 stored in calcium carbonate in solution and
coral reefs...runaway warming.
I have heard that Stephen Hawking fears the
Venus scenario.....

[terisel]

3. I think some models predict ice age from increased warming

I think the big change is now thought to be arriving sooner (10-15 years) and may cause the end of the Gulf Stream effect-plunging western Europe and northeast North America into new ice age.

In fact, i think this model is what made Tony Blair desperate for the Iraqi oil supply.

What is certain is the following:
1. Our current president lies and withholds vital information from us, using "national security" as a cover.

2. Our government funds lots of scientific research about climate change-much of it through the Department of Defense.

I think government and favored industries are well aware of the liklihood of drastric climate change and that tracking investment behaviors may give us a clue about what is actually being predicted.

[greenman3610]

6. on hawking

http://www.climateark.org/articles/2000/3rd/greffwor.htm

Copyright © 2000 The Associated Press
September 30, 2000



LONDON (AP) - Stephen Hawking says he fears the human race will not survive another millennium.

``I am afraid the atmosphere might get hotter and hotter until it will be like Venus with boiling sulfuric acid,'' the physicist told Britain's Press Association. ``I am worried about the greenhouse effect.''
.....

[Media_Lies_Daily]

8. The Pentagon's secret report and other articles on climate change...

<http://www.fortune.com/fortune/technology/articles/0,15114,582584,00.html>

<http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climate_change.html>

<http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0202-02.htm>

<http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0222-01.htm>

<http://www.naturalworldtours.co.uk/article/december181999i.htm>

<http://www.firstscience.com/site/articles/gribbin.asp>

<http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/climatechange_wef.html>

<http://millennium-debate.org/ind22july.htm>

[KittyWampus]

9. Global WARMING Is Misleading. Global VOLATILITY Seems More Apropos

[gristy]

11. The term being promoted by some is "Climate Change"

That works for me.

[yardwork]

10. Chimpy doesn't care.

Chimpy and Cheney and their friends don't believe in the crazy things that atheist-scientists believe. They only believe what god puts in their hearts.

If the atheist-scientists accidentally get something right, all it means is what Chimpy and Co already know - the end of the world is nigh.

There's no way to stop the end of the world, in fact the sooner the better, so all the true-believers can go right up to heaven and all the evil atheist-scientists, philosophers, liberals, socialists, communists, and all the other godless unbelievers can stay here and suffer.

Then Chimpy and his friends have a nice talk about all the nasty things that will happen to all those godless people on AirAmerica and the left-wing press (the ones the Republicans haven't been able to buy yet), and they go to bed early and feel real good about themselves.