Do You Think Prior to Nov. We Will See B or K with 15% or more lead?

[BabsSong]

If we have these usual swings of a few points this way and a few points that way over these next months, we cannot exactly say that people are really, really swinging in either direction and are, unfortunately, only then engaging in b.sing ourselves. Do you think there will be the time when one of these candidates will open up a slam dunk lead over the other?? If so, who?? If so, when?? If not, does it mean that even lies, corruption, and the systematic killing of middle class America is not enough to get a rise out of these people?? And if that's the case, how does anyone ever get through to these people??

[bobbieinok]

1. who believes polls??? - BBV needs 'close' vote to make theft

'palatable'

[belle]

2. I do, although it may be wishful thinking...

I think that it's still early days and a lot of people still aren't paying as much attention to the race as they might. I also think a lot more shit may well hit the fan w/Bush. And Kerry has yet to seriously get in the game. I think there'll possibly be some dramatic swings in either direction, but ultimately (fingers crossed), I think Kerry could end up with a commanding lead by early fall.

Ultimately, I think he's gonna have to, because any possible margin of error + the electronic voting machines + their already established propensity for dirty pool spells bad news.

[BabsSong]

3. I keep wondering if swooping out of left field we have something akin

to Iowa. The polls didn't indicate it; the money raised didn't indicate it; the blathering media didn't indicate it and then Kerry came from the pits to a massive victory. I really wonder if that can happen again. In the primaries we were just dealing with angry Dems who were trying to pick someone to blow away Bush. I'm not sure that we all of a sudden will have a bunch of repukes flee the party. I'm not sure that Independent vote will sway in it's entirity to Kerry. Lot of them lean that way. But I'm thinking more in the way of states rather than "individual voters". I'm wondering if some of the states that have been hardest hit will come back on election night just bing, bing, bing "called for Kerry".

[many a good man]

4. It ought to happen

There's a lot of deep doo-doo in the hopper ready to boil over. Sibel Edmonds. Plame investigation. Terror threats. Energy task force secrets revealed. The list goes on and on. It will be a true test of whether Americans are worthy of a democracy. The Rove plan is to simply lie its balls off and hope the media stays tamed.

The surgeon general should declare a national state of emergency over the MENTAL HEALTH EPIDEMIC SWEEPING this country -- cognitive dissonance.

[Yupster]

5. Bush certainly not

Kerry may be up by that much in the time between the two conventions.

[rfkrocks]

6. i am going to rain on the parade

I think things are so uncertain that Bushco is in trouble-but we are TV Nation and all that bush money will slime Kerry up. Remember the rethugs have the presidency, the congress and the courts-they can reduce gas prices, fix the employment numbers, stage a military exercise in November that we may be on the defensive all the way thru-I don't know if things have gotten bad enough yet for America to wake up-but I can' image the GOP in control of the country for another 4 years-I see massive unrest if that happens

[BillZBubb]

7. Kerry will have a 10-12% lead after the Dem Convention.

Shrub will have a 7-10% lead after the Repug convention.

Unless there is some huge political event, that's about the outer limits on the poll swings.

[Gman]

9. Other than the above...

it will be neck and neck until November. My expectation is to see Kerry start pulling away a week or so before the election with maybe a 4 - 5% lead. That's at least my hope.

[arewethereyet]

8. that seems pretty high

8-10 point swings could be expected though