Questions about CA

[jiacinto]

Okay. This is how I would divide the state. My first question is where is Bustamente from? What part of the state is he from?

Here is the map of the 2002 election. Davis is Red; Simon, Blue.



1. North California west of the Cascades/Sierra Nevada:

This is the area north of the Bay Area--it includes the first district and is west of the Mountains. This area votes Democratic in most elections, right? This is the seat of Mike Thompson.

2. North California east of the Cascadas/Sierra Nevada:

This area is hopelessly Republican. I think of the area where Wally Heger is from and Democrats won't fare well here.

Will they vote for Arnold up there?

3. The Bay Area

These counties are heavily Democratic, right? SF, Oakland, Berkeley, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda must turn in high numbers. Will Arnold fare well there? Or will the Republicans fall flat, as they do here in almost every election?

4. Sacramento

This area is a swing area. I noticed that Gray Davis lost Sacramento in 2002, but that Peter Camejo more than made up the difference.

What is the political environment like here? I know that Yolo County votes Democrat.

5. Interior California

This is the area covered by the 25th distirct. No one lives here in the desert. And the GOP will thrash the Dems here. Will these Republicans vote for Arnold or Issa?

6. San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara/

SLO votes Republican and SB votes Democratic. Can Davis fare well in the area where Lois Capps's seat is? Or can Bustamenta fare well in the second part of the ballot?

7. LA County

It used to be more politically divided. Nixon won it in 1968 and in 1072, Reagan in 1980 and in 1984. Carter and Dukakis were able to eke out wins here. Then, in the 1990s and in the early 2000s, it swung hard left.

How will Arnold fare here? And can Bustamente get votes here? How will the key towns of Glendale, Azuza, Pasadena, and the outer LA suburbs vote?

8. Southern California outside of LA

a. Orange County

What is the deal here? Can Loretta Sanchez's district put out a decent share of the vote to keep the Dem losses low here?

b. The Inland Empire

What about this area? I know that San Bernardino County votes Democratic in some elections, although it historically leans to the Republicans. In 1998 Boxer carried this county against Matt Fong. This area sends to Joe Baca to Congress.

Riverside is still Republican, although Mary Bono's seat is getting more competetive. Can the Democrats be able to break even here?

c. Ventura County?

Any thoughts here?

d. San Diego County

Issa is from the North County. Can Filner and Davis help out in their parts of the county to at least remain somewhat competetive?

[chaumont58]

1. Ventura County

I used to live in Ventura County(Simi Valley). I moved in '97. It is repuke country. I talked to my son last night and he tells me that the current repuke congressman from Simi has filed to run for governor(Elton Gallegy). Ventura County, when I was there, was white middle class mostly.

[jiacinto]

2. Didn't it vote for Clinton and Gore, though

in the presidential races of the 1990s and in 2000?

[redeye]

3. The Bay Area

In San Francisco county, Nader got more than 7% of the vote in 2000 and Camejo came in second with 15.5% of the vote in 2002. In both Alameda and Sonoma Camejo got over 10% of the vote (mind you, Alameda county includes Berkeley, not exactly a right-wing area). I expect Arianna/Camejo to carry the Bay Area like a breeze.

As for LA, I know that Riordan is popular there and that he's affiliated with Arnold. I have no idea how popular the Terminator will be there, though.

[jiacinto]

4. Something interesting I caught from another thread

>>Among those caught off guard by Schwarzenegger's surprise announcement was his close friend and another potential candidate, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. One of Riordan's closest advisors said the mayor thought he had an understanding that Schwarzenegger would withdraw from the race, easing Riordan's way in.

"So this is what it feels like to be mugged," the advisor said.<<


http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-recall7aug07,1,5633864.story?coll=la-home-headlines