http://www.latimes.com/la-na-insurgent9jul09,1,6139434.storyDean Tries to Beat the Odds Against Outsiders
Latest insurgent bid for the presidency shakes up Democrats. Rules favor insiders.
By Ronald Brownstein
Times Staff Writer
July 9, 2003
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Still, Dean faces problems common to all insurgents, beginning with the acceleration of the primary calendar. When Carter won in 1976, half of the delegates to the convention weren't selected until 11 weeks after the first contest in New Hampshire, according to research by Northeastern University political scientist William G. Mayer.
Since then, both Democrats and Republicans have dramatically compressed the primary calendar. Next year, about two-thirds of the pledged delegates to the Democratic convention will be selected within six weeks of the first contest.
In some cases, that front-loading can help a little-known candidate. The momentum from an unexpectedly strong showing in Iowa or New Hampshire can produce a surge that propels an outsider everywhere else; such a wave almost carried Hart past the heavily favored Mondale in 1984.
But mostly, front-loading has benefited candidates with the most support from the party establishment — something analysts believe was a principal motivation for changing the rules. While Carter had time to raise money and build support after his initial success, the new calendar favors those candidates with the money, endorsements and interest group support to build nationwide organizations before voting begins.
"Front-loading hurts
because of the cost and difficulty of running everywhere at once," Hart said.
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