"160% more Gay marriages end in divorce than Straight marriages..."

[BiggJawn]

This was uttered by my state representative Brandt Hershman at a town forum sponsored by WBAA last night.
OK, so I'm doing the math, and using the latest figure I read for Straight divorce (70%) and multiplying that by 160%, I get the figure that for every 100 gay mariages, 112 of them will end in divorce.

Where did my TI-30 screw up? My state rep wouldn't be blowing numbers out his butt, would he? (sure he would, he's a ReTHUG)

Also heard such gems as "Gays don't have the fidelity that married heterosexuals do..." I laughed. Gee, I was married twice. I've been divorced twice. Both my ex-wives had trouble keeping their panties up.

Duh.

I'm composing a letter to him.....

[Rockholm]

1. So, Of The 4,200 Gay Marriages In SF.......

thay are getting divorced in record numbers? These anti-marriage foks are such freaking hippo-creatures! They really made my blood boil.
Wait, his argument is wrong anyway. The reugs are saying that these marriages are not legal anyway.

[drumwolf]

2. of course far more gay marriages fall apart than straight ones...

...it's because they're all being terminated and nullified by the courts! :P

[ProfessorGAC]

3. Where Would Such Data Even Come From?

The number of gay marriages, to date, would be far too small to present itself as a statistically significant sample, compared to bigender marriages.

So, not only is his math wrong, but he absolutely MUST be making that number up. Either that or someone else made it up and he's too dense to realize it's phony.
The Professor

[Andy_Stephenson]

4. My partner and I have been together

almost 18 years.

:eyes:

[Rockholm]

8. Congratulations on 18 years!

My partner and I are a bit over 8 years!

[Ready4Change]

5. Math comment?

I think there's some confusion in terms. Taking 160% MORE, and a straight number of 70 out of 100, you need to multiply by 260%, not 160%.

Think of it this way. Say he said 100% more gay marriages end in divorce than hetero marriages. Then, if 50 of 100 hetero marriages end in divorce, that would mean 100 of 100 gay marriages end in divorce.

I suspect what he meant, and how you calculated it, is that 60% more gay marriages end in divorce. I'd still highly question that figure, because I wonder where he got statistics on any gay marriages AT ALL?

Can't really use over-seas numbers, as divorce rates vary widely from nation to nation.

[BiggJawn]

9. I have to take him at his word....

Since he's an Elected One and all that, he's suppoesed to be smarter than me...,mild sarcasm>

And I didn't mis-hear him, he DID say "160% more..." this morning's paper had the quote.

Methinks the Representative is guilty of a little hyperbole.

[DarkPhenyx]

6. Since, prior to the recent spat of marriages...

There were no same sex marriages in teh US, and since he ahs to be working off historical data, my math says taht 160% of zero is...well...zero.

Therefore, logically, all SSM's are 100% successful. QED.

[Iceburg]

7. If they can't get married they can't get divorced!!!

I'm surprised the Busheviks haven't conntoned on to that "divorce reduction" strategy -- Ban ALL marriages, thereby reducing the divorce numbers.

"The state has no business in the bedroom"... P.E Trudeau

[shimmergal]

10. He's probably basing this on the breakup of gay relationships.

In which case, the proper comparison group is heterosexual live-in or other coupled relationships, not het marriages.

There's so much more institutional support for "marriage" than other relationships, which tend to be more vulnerable to outside forces, as well as to the same discord between partners that can affect marriages.

I've gone through the breakup of two serious long-term relationships: one a marriage, and the other as a non-married couple. There was a lot more social support for keeping the marriage going. For the other relationship, only a few close friends even knew or cared whether we stayed together. Even though emotionally it was more painful than the one which ended in divorce.