What is more important..swing voters or engerized base?

[wuushew]

I ask this because in both 2000 and 2002 the Republicans fought Democrats by resorting to voting fraud and voter disenfranchizement.
The 2000 election was critical and important because people (especically in states like Florida and the swing states) knew that the national road to the future would diverge depending on who won the presidency.

I would argue that the 2002 midterms employeed a Republican strategy of fear that depressed any weak partianship in the name of orthodoxy, rather than being any overt attempt to convince swing voters on the importance of Republican national defense policy.

People on these boards seldom trumpet the idea that Republicans are any better at converting undecided voters. Is the modern concept of a swing voter a myth?

[SGrande]

1. both

You cannot win without both.

[whoYaCallinAlib]

5. You win the gold star.

If we are going to beat Bush, we need the greens, the left, the moderates/centrists and the swingers. To think we can win otherwise is bordering on folly.

[wuushew]

9. If we don't consider the Electoral College

The Dem canidate again will win the popular vote if everyone who voted for Gore votes for the Dem canidate. Seems like a voter turnout issue

[SGrande]

10. I see it this way: past mistakes learned

We let the electoral college burn us once, we WON'T let it do it to us again, mark my words.

We WON'T stand for it this time!

[dragonquest8]

46. pithy & clever answer

[tjdee]

2. During midterms, the base. During Pres. elections, the swings.

So many times people want to point to 2002 to say why we should veer to the left. Guess what, people, no one but the bases vote in midterms! So IMO we should be as lefty as lefty can be in the 'off years'.

But--
A leadership position requires centrism. Very large group of people voting for one man, different opinions, different values, etc.

Message diluted. Period.

That is why the Republicans would NEVER nominate Tom Delay for President. That's even why Mrs. Pelosi has done some center like things in her new role.

Dumya may be a rabid right winger, but that is not how he campaigned, and lord knows that is not how most people saw him.

And if we focus on voter turnout, we're going to get more swings, IMO.

[BeatleBoot]

3. Swing Voters

Are not a myth.

We lost the 2002 congressional elections to swing voters because we didn't have a message for them, so they bought the scare tactics of the right. Our bad.

The real question is: Will the swing voters vote left-left or center-left in 2004.

They won't vote either if we do not have a coherent message.

[Pallas180]

4. Energizing the Base, so that they will bring along/convince swings!

:bounce:

[sandnsea]

14. That's what I think too

I also kind of think the left might want to 'learn' when to stop talking (maybe, just maybe).

So often I hear a liberal making good sense and then all of a sudden they go way out into freakland and lose their wonderful points. Like someone will talk about how land can be more beneficially used with crops than cattle and then the next thing you know they're talking about the poor sandfleas or something. Or somebody will talk about globalization and then they veer off into pure socialist ideology, scares the shit out of the middle. I find myself screaming at the TV, stop stop, you were winning and... aw shit, now it's all gone.

[jagguy]

6. always the swing votes

this is not to diminish the need to get the so-called base to actually go to the polls and pull the levers.

[edward]

11. Swing voters are a myth.

This just my own thought, not based on political studies or numbers.
If you get people excited about voting(the "base")others will come along.
Like Jumpin' Joe L., if you play to the "swing" voters, you are just asking the Republicans to think about you too when they vote.
(Like a real party, you don't coax shy people onto the dance floor, you get the dancers going, and others will join in)

[Gman]

20. There's tons of empirical evidence

supporting the existence of the swing voter. They make up at least 33% of the electorate.

[edward]

31. The point is, how are they influenced.

A few years ago, noticed that virtually all the poles predicting elections, including percentages of votes, were wrong.
Why no one who studies political science goes into politics.
"Swing voters" like "undecided voters" a creation of media people looking for something to do.

[jagguy]

43. they follow what makes them feel good

Clinton made people feel good, Carter before him, Reagan and Bush2 as well. THey do it in different ways but generally they generate confidence either through a sense of likeness or believability but mostly by resonating a plan that people can believe to take the US forward.

Not much of an explination. Do some research on what makes leaders and you'll probably do better.

[lynndew2]

45. I think you hit it on the head Jag

the air of leadership is the winner. Good call.

[CarlBallard]

7. They can be reinforcing

If a candidate can excite the base, then labor, students, and other activists will spend more time working for them, and that can draw in swing voters. Right now swing voters aren't paying attention, so it stands to reason that candidats should talk to the base (and I for one don't mind being pandered to :)).

[samsingh]

8. energised base

considering that less than half seem to vote. Getting them out gets more direct votes that the % that can be converted in the swing vote.

[SGrande]

13. Many of them still won't vote

Trust me...its how we won New Mexico, Michigan and Arizona in 02'.

You need a GOOD performance amongst democrats; ie: showing up and voting

and a MODEST turnover ratio among independents and Green\non\GOP

[izzie]

29. I have read the people who do not vote are really Dem.

I reason that out to be so, so I say go after them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Since our Base is 35% to 40% of the electorate

the answer is a matter of mathematics not opinion.

[SGrande]

15. UMMM WTF!

our base consists of about 17% of the electorate.

Check out University of Michigan National Election Studies (NES).

CONSISTANTLY the base has never moved from 17%, but be happy, the GOP base is only at 11%.

You MUST rememeber that each state runs party registration differntly, but it doesn't matter who they are registered under, its how they vote and how they describe themselves.

40% are "independents"

23% are Democrats

and 19% are GOP

12% are "other"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. go to polling report

Self Identified Democrats comprise 33% t0 40% of the electorate

Self Identified Republicans comprise 32% to 36% of the electorate

and

Self Identified independents comprise approxiamtely thirty percent of the electorate.

Those numbers are accepted by the vast majority of social scientists and political pollsters and they base their modesls on them.

The statement that our base is 17% seems absurd on it's face. As bad as we got walloped in 72 and 84 we still got around 40% of the vote.

[birdman]

17. Swing voters by a wide margin

The base is the base because you can depend
on it. You start with those and build on it with
people who approach politics in the most shallow
of manners. They don't always vote and often make
up their minds because of a well constructed sound bite
or a marginal understanding of the issues. They want
their choice to be simple - issues that are too complicated
or too many issues will cause them to tune out or go to
the other side.

But they decide elections - rightly or wrongly. The are millions
more of them then there are activists on one side or another
and campaigns have to be tailored toward them. There are activists
of the left and right (i.e the base) but not enough of them to
get 51%. It's the swing voters who matter.

[CarlBallard]

22. You can count on the base

To support you in theory. But if they aren't energized they won't vote in as great numbers. And you need them pounding the pavement and the phones in the months before the election.

Swing voters aren't going to do that leg work. On the other hand if they swing to the other side, the election is a loser. So you do have to work both sides.

[birdman]

34. Alienating the base is a sure way to lose

Examples - McGovern in '72. Goldwater in '64.

But that's a rare occurrence. Mondale didn't cause
the base to rebel but he got almost no swings in '84.

You need both but the base is there for you unless you lose
it. The swings you have to go and get.

[CarlBallard]

37. I agree

I just think that the base can get you swing voters better than the swing voters can energize your base.

[StandWatie]

18. I think the mistake here..

is thinking that swing voters are smarter than they actually are, they don't vote policy, they vote hair styles and bullshit and pique if things aren't going well for them and vote against the incumbant, there is little use in trying to craft policy to attract them because they don't know what the issues are and don't really care anyway.

[birdman]

21. It's not that they're not smart

It's that they're not political. They can and will make up
their minds on a shallow understanding of issues and candidates.

But that's the way elections are won. And they always will be.

[StandWatie]

24. I don't disagree

It's just that usually these sort of discussions wind up being some sort of plea to attract these people away from Republicans using issues and I think it's a waste of time, if they know the issues they aren't swing voters.

[jonnyblitz]

23. oh? you mean they aren't "principled centrists"???

This issue seems to be the biggest bone of contention within the DEM party who to appeal to and who not to offend. I wish I knew the answer.

[StandWatie]

26. hell no..

maybe a couple of them but they aren't really centrists, they belong in the other party but can't leave because they are ethnic or sexual orientation minorities and would actually belong better in a Republican party divorced from it's Klan-type policies so they aren't going anywhere.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I Agree

I was lurking at a Freeper's Board and a freeper reduced everything political scientists know about elections to a bumper sticker

We'll (Freepers) vote for our guy and they (Dems) will vote for their guy and the swing voters will vote for the guy or gal they like best.

[Frances]

41. The likeability factor is VERY important

to many voters. They don't have a clue about the issues.

That's why Bush goes to Crawford every summer and clears brush. He knows that the rural voters will like him for doing that.

[Gman]

19. Both... this is why

Dean can't win in Nov 04. He doesn't and won't ever appeal to the swing voters. (read that: middle of the road)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Agree That Dean Has Problems

but he'll get some swing votes.

He remids me of this year's Paul Tsongas with his social liberalism and fiscal conservatism. I just wonder if a "Bill Clinton" will emerge from the pack to challenge him.

Memo to self. Not likely.

[ibegurpard]

28. Dean leads among independents in recent New Hampshire poll

Take it for what it's worth but it certainly seems to fly in the face of your argument.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/
"Kerry leads Dean 28% to 17% among registered Democrats likely to vote in the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary (76% of this sample). Dean leads Kerry 25% to 17% among undeclared voters ("independents") likely to vote in the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary (24% of this sample).

While Kerry continues to lead in favorability with a 66% favorable rating, Dean is approaching near-universal awareness and now has a 57% favorable rating, the second highest among the potential candidates. Since January, Dean's awareness has increased from 64% to 97% and his favorable rating has increased from 30% to 57%."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Sincerely

beating Kerry 25% to 17% among independents in New Hampshire doesn't really allow us to infer how he would do among independents against an incumbent Repugnicant president.

I like John Kerry but I don't really see him as the benchmark by which other Democratic candidates should be judged on their capacity to garner swing or independent voters.

I have some candidates that I find attractive but I have no dog in this intramural battle.

I just hope that we elect a competitive candidate and the election isn't decided before next year's NBA All Star Game.

[ibegurpard]

36. Of course it doesn't

But it's just as reliable as using the past performance of McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis to judge how Dean would fare.

[Starpass]

30. We really shouldn't call them "swing" voters

I agree with some stats presented above and have seen differing numbers but same results. Actually Dem registered voters has declined slightly but we still are above the repukes and the big block is the "swing" or "undecided" or "independent" or whatever you want to call them. But I've watched them for too many elections.......while some are astute people examining postions and candidates, most are fucking dimwits (they could be 3rd grade educated dimwits or 6 PhD's in the back pocket dimwits). They respond to Madion Ave. "jingles", gossip, the front pages of the rag mag staring at them in the checkout line, and political ads (the dirty ones they say they don't like). I've watched these dimwits bellow into mikes that they wouldn't vote for Gore 'cause he was a "liar"...when asked what he lied about, they couldn't answer the question and just ran off at the mouth showing their total ignorance. Bottom line: make sure we have snappy ads, cool jingles (like Clinton's "It's the Economy Stupid", and play the ads in right states (forget about blowing money in the "hopeless redneck" states.

[Frances]

42. I am starting to wonder about the red states

I know this sounds crazy, but I think that Dean's surplus in Vermont will go over well in states with large rural populations. That's because those areas really depend on social security (the seniors spend their checks in the small towns). I think these people know that the deficits threaten their social security and their medicare.

Also Dean's stance on guns will play well. I think that because he's made guns a states rights issue, he will be able to make gay rights a states rights issue as well and the swing voters won't deny him their vote based on that single issue.

How do people in rural areas feel about my thoughts?

[carpetbagger]

32. Coleman beat Mondale.

If the party base in Minnesota wasn't energized in that election, I don't know when it would have been.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. That

race was an abortion.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

38. an energized base will work hard to bring in the swing vote!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

39. an energized base will work hard to win over the swing vote!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

40. an energized base will work hard to win over the swing vote!

[sabbat hunter]

44. importance

the engergized voters are the one that get you nominated (they are the ones more likely to vote in primarys/caucuses)
however the swing voters are the ones needed to win the general election.

peace
david
:hippie:

[kainah]

47. swing voters are most critical of this (mis)administration

check out the poll results alluded to in this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=11928&mesg_id=11928

That was VERY encouraging.