Who thinks that 92% of the Spaniards changed their minds in 1 year?

[SoCalDem]

92% of the Spaniards OPPOSED going into the war, but they did not have an election at that time, so they could NOT throw Aznar out at that time.. THIS was their time to turn him out of office..

The whole "terrorist attack changed the election" is a bogus argument from the get-go.

So what if they had "polls" that said Aznar would win? Figures lie, and liars figure. We all know how polls can be worded to say anything the polltaker wants them to say..

The poll numbers that I saw bandied about, were NOT a huge difference..

Aznar could have indeed won, IF the turn out of the 92% who opposed the war, had been light.. Perhaps the bombing and the subsequent lies goaded them into turning out to vote, but who's to say that Aznar's poll numbers prior to the election were even correct??

Usinig the media's current brand of logic, Max Cleland is still senator, and Sonny Perdue is still a chicken farmer..

[tom_paine]

1. I agree. All Bullshit and Spin

I could almost believe the Busheviks arranged this little surprise to validate their getting their asses kicked in the election.

Certainly, it is not outside of the range of evil the Busheviks are capable of.

Does that mean they did it (or helped Aznar LIHOP it)?

No.

Possible? Yes.

[greatauntoftriplets]

2. My boss got back from Spain on Sunday.

She was there for 2 1/2 weeks -- and in Madrid last Thursday. She also speaks fluent Spanish. According to her, while the PP probably would have won the election by a narrow margin prior to last Thursday, the vast majority of the Madrilenos she talked with are overjoyed at the regime change.

Opposition to the war in Spain was equally strong before AND after the bombing. That revulsion turned to the ruling party last week.

[SoCalDem]

3. Was the switch because people who might not have voted, did?

That's my read on it.. The explosions and then the lies were the "wedge" issue that got a lot of that 92% off their butts and to the polls..

I don't think it had as much to do with the bombing itself, as it did with his reaction to it..

If 92 % had been IN FAVOR of the war, and Zapatera won, I would think that the terrorists swayed the populace..

[BurtWorm]

4. According to a story in the NYTimes, young people voted in record numbers

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/17/international/europe/17SPAI.html

ELECTION OUTCOME
Spain Grapples With Notion That Terrorism Trumped Democracy
By LIZETTE ALVAREZ and ELAINE SCIOLINO


...

The contest in Spain had always been close between the governing Popular Party, which backed Mr. Bush's policies, and the Socialists, who opposed them. Other issues at stake before the bombings were unemployment, a housing shortage, women's rights and social benefits.

In March 2003, at the height of opposition to the Iraq war, the Socialists were ahead in polls. With the economy roaring and the Socialist Party in disarray, the Popular Party pulled ahead. On March 7, the last date in which polls were published, an Opina poll showed that the gap had narrowed, giving the Popular Party 42 percent, compared with 38 percent for the Socialists.

Four days later, terror struck. With Madrid under siege, voters were expected to rally around the flag and stick with the party that had talked the toughest against terrorism, at least initially. Even the Socialists braced themselves for that outcome, said two senior party officials.

But interviews with scores of Spaniards of both parties indicated that a number of things happened after the attacks that shifted the balance to the Socialists. Voters flooded the polls on Sunday in record numbers, especially young people who had not planned to vote. In interviews, they said they did so not so much out of fear of terror as out of anger against a government they saw as increasingly authoritarian, arrogant and stubborn. The government, they said, mishandled the crisis in the emotional days after the attacks.

...

[SoCalDem]

6. Exactly...

Thanks for the article..

Of course OUR media will only report :

"Run for your lives.. Terrorists overthrew the government in Spain"..."Could it happen here??? Film at 11 "

NO ONE THINKS...NO ONE READS... I AM DEPRESSED NOW :cry:

[BurtWorm]

9. The Times copy editors who wrote the headline

and maybe the lede make it sound as though the article is going to be about how ashamed and guilty the Spanish people feel for the outcome of the election. But the actual reportage contradicts everything in the headline and lede.

[SoCalDem]

10. The words.."Trumped Democracy"

bother me on so many levels.. The election ratified democracy.. People who were spurred to vote, actually got their opinions voiced.. That's what democracy IS..

Shame on the headline writer..

I could do a better one for them..

"President's percieved lies prove painful to party"

or

"Vote proves that 92% of public has NOT forgotten"

or

"War on Terrorism-YES..War on IRaq-NO"

[rinsd]

8. Time article says an estimated 2 miilion voted for the first time

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,601306,00.html

[BurtWorm]

11. There's another article that seems to be about how al Qaeda won

in Spain!

Welcome to DU, by the way. :toast:

[greatauntoftriplets]

12. Yes, re turnout.

Usually turnout in Spain is low -- as it is here. Masses of people who rarely vote did this time. The people were angry.

On edit: (am at work, so posting is difficult) Re the above mention of young people, many killed on the trains were college students. So, young people went out and voted for the first time, in many cases.

[greatauntoftriplets]

13. Another thought on the Spanish election.

The people were angry because the Aznar government kept blaming ETA, when the consensus was that it was Al Quaeda instead. That also helped boost voter turnout.

[rinsd]

5. A bigger factor....

I think the PP's rush to blame the ETA (a freaking UN resolution) hurt them severly. Polls were pretty split with slight lead for PP. I would agree if the election had been held in March of 2003 the PP would have lost but moods can change and I don't know enough about Spanish politics to discuss that in detail.

Interesting article in Time for your perusal.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,601306,00.html

[Robbien]

7. A blogger posted an email they received from a friend in Spain

It is a great insight into what Spaniards must be thinking:

I was watching TV this afternoon and there was footage showing how the railway service affected by the attack is working as usual since early this morning. It showed a trainful of commuters, some of them with tears in their eyes, some of them with an openly defiant expression on their faces. Some recognised they had felt a tingle in their stomach when boarding the train, but all said they were not going to change their life because of, and give in to, the assassins who had committed the atrocity.
I can assure you that appeasement doesn't come into the equation. Those who think otherwise forget that we have thousands of PP and PSOE councillors, old and young, who are risking their lives on a daily basis in the Basque country, sometimes getting killed for it, precisely because they refuse to appease the ETA thugs.

And they forget a very simple thing: Aznar had huge support for his hardline policy of non-appeasement of the ETA terrorists and their supporters, however, there was discontent about his lap-dog act towards Bush's war on 'global terror' which, wrong or right, was perceived as inefficient and counterproductive. Discontent extended to other pressing domestic issues, he had antagonised practically all other political parties and more than a few regional governments due to his "you-are-with-me-or-against-me" attitude, his arrogance and his intolerance. However, there was a degree of apathy in the socialist camp, as Rodríguez Zapatero was thought not to have enough experience just yet.

So, the PP knew that their antiterrorist policy (against ETA) was one of its main winning cards, and they didn't hesitate to blatantly manipulate the 11-M attack, suppressing information, calling people to demonstrate against ETA, knowing all the while that the Antiterrorist Information Brigade had as good as discarded ETA authorship a few hours after the attack. The antiterrorist police heads even threatened to resign at the madness of it all, and this was leaked to the opposition and the press. And all the while the state TVE showing documentaries about ETA activities right until late Saturday night, on the eve of the election, and failing to report live on Minister Acebes informing about the Al-Q line of investigation which he had been forced to acknowledge - forced by his own angered police heads and by the media which had all the information but was withholding it just long enough for the Minister to do the decent thing. This heartless manipulation of the dead for political gain clinched it - it was the last straw, it galvanised a portion of apathetic socialist voters who would have otherwise abstained, galvanised first-time voters, and galvanised Izquierda Unida voters (which include communists) who opted for heaping their vote on the PSOE for a higher chance of defeating Aznar (IU lost 5 seats because of that). In Spain, government change has always been heralded by a higher participation of voters. In a nutshell, many Spaniards felt badly abused, and acted accordingly. So, yes, 11-M influenced the vote, but not because we are overcome by fear, or because we think that we can avert further attacks, but because we will only put up with so much lying and manipulation, and especially not when it is the dead and their families that are being heartlessly and shamelessly manipulated.

http://beautifulhorizons.typepad.com/weblog/2004/03/arrogance_to_th.html