Does anyone else not think Madrid was the ETA?

[mrgorth]

I'm not saying they're saints or anything but this just does not seem like their type of job. Frankly, I don't know who it was but this isn't passing the smell test.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. who gains?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x418334

[hang a left]

2. I was just coming over here to post that story on this thread.

Oh yes nsma, who gains exactly.

[hang a left]

3. Aw shucks here are some tidbits.

Enraged voters set for return of Right
By Lisa Abend and Geoff Pingree
March 13, 2004

THE devastating terror attacks in Madrid, regardless of whether they were set by Basque or al-Qa'ida terrorists, have transformed Spain's political landscape just three days before general elections.

The conservative Government's war on Basque separatist group ETA ("Basque Homeland and Liberty"), which the ruling Popular Party had made a key plank of its electoral platform, means the attack has effectively sealed its victory at the polls tomorrow. "Logically this will benefit the Popular Party," said Jose Alvarez Junco, a political analyst at Madrid's Complutense University. "They are the ones who are seen as toughest on ETA."
<snip>
Analysts said the 5 per cent lead the Popular Party held over the opposition Socialists in the latest opinion polls would probably grow by tomorrow, holding out the prospect of an absolute governing majority with no need for coalition partners.
<snip>
"The PP has based its entire campaign on the anti-terrorist fight, and the attack will feed that image," said Jaume Soriano, a professor at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. "Before, I did not think the PP would win an absolute majority, but today I think they will."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,8951011%...

[Brian_Expat]

4. It's far too early to tell. . .

. . . but all the evidence so far, from the ETA activists arrested trying to bomb a station on the same line with the same kinds of bombs, to the organized nature of the attack, points to ETA.

People declaring it's al Qaeda without hesitation are jumping into the fire right now.

[mrgorth]

5. I guess we'll have to see

I heard the ETA have claimed it was not them. Obviously they could be lying but these groups usually own up to it, otherwise the gain no leverage.

[Brian_Expat]

6. ETA is not unitary

It has various splinters just like the IRA and Al Qaeda. Just because the political wing denies responsibility doesn't mean the more extreme elements acting independently (especially youth) aren't responsible.

[mrgorth]

8. If it's a splinter group

you blame the splinter group. If the Continuity IRA blew up a ferry you could hardly blame the provos who, again, while not angels, aren't killing hundreds of civilians these days. That's all I'm saying.

[Dogmudgeon]

10. Yet ETA is very small

It never had more than about a hundred active members, and that number may now be down to around 20. A lot of ETA bombers have been blowing themselves up lately, and their support in Basque country has dwindled into absurdity. Factions in an organization that small would be even more absurd, but Marxist-Lenninist cells are like that sometimes.

Still, you never can tell, and even if it is al-Qaeda, all they would have to do is involve one Basque -- not even necessarily an ETA member -- and Sr. Aznar would happily turn the Basque Autonomous Region into a giant jail.

This is al-Qaeda's M.O. -- to force democracies to become fascistic, so that the people convert to Islam. Trotsky in a turban? What an insult to people who wear turbans -- and to Trotsky!

--bkl

[markus]

12. So, when did Trotsky advocate terrorism?

and the creation of fascist states for the plucking?

Read at lot of LT in my youth, and definetely missed that one.

[Dogmudgeon]

14. So, when did Trotsky advocate terrorism?

Never.

Unless you consider revolution terrorism.

Trotsky did advocate pushing the state to become more fascist, which would promote a workers' revolution -- as did Marx.

ETA started as a group of intellectuals, called Ekin ("Let's Go!") with no connection to violence; ETA grew out of that, and became much less organized. Like the Weather Underground growing out of the Students for a Democratic Society. But where the Weather Underground self-destructed after a handfull of violent acts, ETA had a two-decade-long run with over 800 victims.

--bkl

[Brian_Expat]

13. Basques have never supported ETA

Meanwhile, just a few people in OK City created a catastrophe. "Only 200 or 300 ETA members" can likely do a lot more.

[GainesT1958]

7. I'm convinced it was al Quaeda...

Who else would have set the attack exactly 911 days from Sept 11, 2001?

Also, it's not the normal M.O. of ETA, nor their normal target genre.
Now, they may well have COORDINATED an attack of their own with al Quaeda, but the train bombing looked much more like an al Quaeda-type job.

B-)

[Dogmudgeon]

9. Not ETA

Nothing about the bombing resembles an ETA operation.

The fact the Arnold Otegi, the leader of Batasuna ("Unity"), the political partner of ETA (like Sinn Fein to the IRA), came out and denounced the action so quickly speaks against it being an ETA attack. No warnings, no targeted officials, no previous failed attempts with bombers accidentally blowing themselves up -- this shows signs of serious planning, resources, and execution. It is not beyond the scope of al-Qaeda (though it has not been shown to have been involved) but it is beyond anything ETA has ever done.

Ten synchronized, powerful bomb blasts with 200 deaths and 1400 injuries? ETA had never managed to kill more than 21 people. If it is ETA, it's even more frightening that such a small group has been able to pull off such an audacious attack, but there's many arguments against that.

The Spanish investigators are right to not rule out ETA involvement yet, but I have a feeling it's going to be al-Qaeda or some other similar terrorist organization.

--bkl
(Edit: Pardon my (incorrect) Basque!)

[supernova]

11. I dont' know, but leaning toward Al Quaieda

Information seems to be conflicting so far:

ETA has disavowed it. Don't you think that if they had done it, they'd want the credit? Isn't getting attention for your political cause the point of being a terrorist organization to start with?

OTOH, they could have learned to be more ambitious because of Al Quaieda. You have to keep having ever bigger goals. And the shock value sadly begins to wear off.

The seized van seems to implicate Al Quaieda with the arabic paper and the ominous warnings about an attack here in the US. But what if that's planted?

The coordinated attacks designed to inflict maximum carnage seem to smack of Al Q also.