Bush's poll numbers: very interesting development

[TeamsterDem]

I was reviewing www.pollingreport.com's "Bush Job Ratings" poll and noticed something very telling - at least I think it's telling.

In the most recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll, Bush's approval ratings have dropped 11 points in only 2 months! In that same time, the number of people now dissaproving of his "job" has increased by 7 points.

I find that very interesting because the Fox News poll ostensibly reflects the opinions of his core supporters. If this poll is indicative of Republican opinion, and they're starting to see the light about Bush, I think the confluence of their realization mixed with our long-existing disapproval gives us a very real chance of removing democracy's albatross in '04.

Wha'dya guys think? :shrug:

[Kolesar]

1. I would like to see his approval numbers with registered Republicans

Heretofore, only ~9% of Republicans had disapproved of Shrub. We would need a more detailed poll to see if his dedicated followers are deserting.

By dedicated followers, I don't mean the religious right. Those idiots will take all kinds of nonsense on faith. I mean the wealthy Americans who normally profit by republican rule, but are losing money with that psycho in the White House. They would also object to his deference to the religious right and his assault on civil liberties.

[unfrigginreal]

2. I wish I could agree but...

I find that very interesting because the Fox News poll ostensibly reflects the opinions of his core supporters.

I'm not so sure that that is true. If you check out their past polls, ie the 2000 presidential polls, you'll see that they were very close to having it correct. The only poll that got closer to the truth of the 2000 election was Zogby.

My radar tells me to treat all of their polls as suspect but history treats them fairly well.

[tom_paine]

6. Ahhh, but that was in the Days of the Old Republic

Remember? Polls so accurate that the elections were almost unneccesary?

I do.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum. Suddenly, polls, exit polling in particular, began to become crazily wrong.

(first, exit polling, often used to check results in corrupt Totalitarian Societies, as Amerika is now moving towards, "met with an accident"; second, people howled and now we have a Stalinist Exit Polling onducted by AP, whose reports are often loaded with such pejorative hot-buttons words to describe Democrats "Furiously counterprogramming; uletrior motives; etc. ad nauseum" while applying equally positive-Q words to Totalitarians "barnstorming" "principles", etc. ad naueseum leads me to believe they are an entirely corrupted entity with Busheviks or Operation Mockingbird spooks in key positions)

Now, a Democrat, like Max Cleland, cannot rely on even a 7 or 8 point lead across the board that can't be "overturned".

Funny how polls went from utterly reliable to utterly worthless in such a short time.

Just...funny.

[unfrigginreal]

10. Not quite sure why your response was to me but...

I'll try to give a response anyway.

We shouldn't confuse the incessant Pro-Bush campaign stories with poll results. If you remember, back in the summer of 2000, no news organization gave Gore even the slightest chance. Bush was the King in waiting. You could tune into MSGOP and find the Bush biography on 4-5 times per day.

That doesn't have anything to do with the poll results. I tried to follow them very closely at that time as I did my battles on the alt.politics.bush newsgroup. I may be mistaken but by my recollection the worst polling was done by Gallup who had wild swings in their results from one day to the next. I may also be mistaken in the recollection that the Fox polls consistantly showed a closer race than ALL of the others until the last poll in which Zogby claimed Gore as the leader. But that is my recollection.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Actually Pew Research Polls Were The Same

Zogby and Pew have, in my experience, been essentially the same. The use similar methodology for stratification and use slightly larger sample sizes (but statistically significantly so) for each strata.

They also both use better "poll busting" detection techniques, which is a really hard thing to do.

So, if i had my choice, i'd go Pew, but with Jim Zogby a close second.
The Professor

[papau]

3. Fox poll before 2000 election was biased to GOP - only at last

day did they move Gore to a "close" race.

[rock]

4. And Gore won

Which means their prior polls were just so much poopy.

[AlinPA]

5. Media covering things up - very efficient

-Lies about Niger/nuke material
-Stonewalling 9/11 commission
-Changing EPA report
-Supporting Santorum hateful stance on gays
-Cheney secret meeting on energy
-World opinion of Bush is bad
-Iraq situation going badly

These are a few things that are in the news now

But he still gets 60% approval.
Rove's media is doing the job on covering them up. Its all about timing.

[RMJ]

7. Zogby's latest...

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=719

infuriating highlight:

If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and a Democrat, for whom would you vote?

Bush 44%
Dem 37%

Rate Bush's performance
Healthcare?

Exc: 6%
Good: 28%
Fair: 29%
Poor: 30%

Environment?

Exc: 7%
Good: 27%
Fair: 27%
Poor: 33%

Economy?

Exc: 8%
Good: 27%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 39%

Taxes?

Exc: 18%
Good: 28%
Fair: 23%
Poor: 29%

Foreign Policy?

Exc: 25%
Good: 28%
Fair: 20%
Poor: 23%

Does Bush deserve re-election?
Yes 49%
No 38%


So...he's doing a terrible job, but we'll vote for him anyway. There are times when I think the American public deserves the government they get just for being such lazy shits.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. Patience

This is the same sort of performance v. re-elect numbers his daddy had. Look how much good it did him.
The Professor