Is Rove insane or can he put NY and CA in play?

[K-W]

After sabotoging california and then grabbing power so that the recovery happened under a republican, and planning a huge spectacular convention in NY that will apparently be unlike anything weve ever seen in a convention, can Rove really have a chance in the two largest and very liberal states.

My first instincts say that he will never win either, so this seems to be a big mistake. Focusing on places he cannot win only diverts resources from actual swing states, but I cant halp but worry that he might just be able to do it.

What do you all think?

[David Dunham]

1. NY convention will have lots of protests. Very bad for Bush.

[Gloria]

11. Well, if those demonstrations get ugly, it might work in Bush's favor

Peaceful demonstsrations focusing on unwarranted deaths, no funding for first responders, etc. will work...

But the moment some jackass calls Bush a Nazi and fights break out and the police move in, we're screwed.

[CalebHayes]

18. We are not that dumb.

[boobooday]

2. No freakin' way

He's not even gonna get close in either state, and it could backfire. The protests in NY are going to be huge. NY is pissed. He exploits them and then stabs them in the back when it comes to funding. He sold California out to his buddies at Enron.

http://www.wgoeshome.com

[Joanne98]

3. e-voting machines

in California. Big problem.:-(

[grytpype]

4. No way he is going to win New York.

I can't imagine it. Especially after months of exploiting 9/11 for his campaign, there is a lot of bitterness about that around here.

[NewJeffCT]

5. money!

By spending money in California & NY, the Dems will be forced to run counter ads... and, with our more limited budget, it could strain Kerry in some swing states.

[K-W]

6. Maybe, but its not like its cheap to run the Bush ads and such

So the democrats would have to spend substantially less to counter them, since the state would just need a visible response, it wouldnt actually need to be convinced. So Bush would be spending 10$ to get the democrats to waist 5$, not exactly a great financial move. Unless the democrats fall hook line and sinker for it and really push in those states. Bush could use that money in states where he needs to win to just further outspend the democrats.

I think this is done in earnest. I think Rove is power mad enough to think that he can pull off the impossible. These people think they are devinely gifted.

[TheFarseer]

7. with their warchest

they can afford to blow money in all 50 states and never worry about cash, so why not try?

[KharmaTrain]

8. Demonstration Backlash

While my heart says I'd love to be on the streets of New York and join with millions in calling for the ouster of this regime, I also remember 1968 and the consequences.

Any riots or images of massive civil strife on TV screens could backlash greatly against Democrats as the media can play up "mob mentality" and the impression that these demonstration would mean chaos for the entire nation. This was the message the GOOP sent in the wake of the 1968 Democratic Convention riots in Chicago that a case can be made scared enough voter from Humphrey to either Nixon or Walace to tip the balance.

Look at the coverage the WTO and other demonstrations have gotten. This isn't a message that will look good in "pleasant valley sunday" where the swing voters reside.

So far, I've been impressed with how organized the various New York groups are, but the best of intentions can easily be subverted...especially with emotions running as high as what they are and sure to get 100 times higher by September.

Part of the Rove game plan is to get various factions in the Democratic ranks to react and then frame it as how dangerous these people can be. It echoes on Faux and off to the other networks. Look at how the Gay Marriage story has played out...so far Rove's controlled this story and got a LBGT response that will be used to bash the Democrats in socially Conservative area for the entire campaign.

This regime has already admitted it can't and won't run on issues...strictly image...since they know that the first 5 seconds always makes the strongest impression.

[tkmorris]

12. This aint 1968

I agree that protests in New York surrounding the convention would best serve our cause if they were impressive in numbers but peaceful in nature. Further I agree that attempts will be made to make them anything but peaceful. BUT.

Even if they aren't we aren't as Conservative a nation as we were in 1968. There is a lot more sympathy for the protestors than there used to be even when the protests turn a bit sour. Remember the popular aftermath of Kent State? An awful lot of people said things like "They should have killed them all", and "They only got what they deserved". You wouldn't hear that today outside of maybe Savage et al and such comments would be treated with the derision they deserve.

Furthermore while many people did have a negative reaction to the WTO protests, notably the one in Seattle, the level of awareness about the WTO has been raised quite a bit as well. In fact, more people question the motives of the WTO than did before. Any way you look at it, that's success.

Lastly I disagree with you that the gay marriage affair has worked in any way to Bush's advantage. The proposed amendment is dead before it starts and everyone knows it. Yes, I know, it was never intended to pass but to make news but that fact is so obvious and there are so many people against it that he gains nothing. The only people who will be influenced to his side by it are already there and not likely to vote Dem anyway. I would bet that he easily lost more centrist votes with the idea than he gained.

I do agree that they are all about image, not issues. The image they keep trying to project though is wearing awfully thin; no one really believes it anymore, even hard core Repubs. They can't seem to come up with a new line that sells either. It's rather encouraging really. Rove is clearly not the evil genius some would make him out to be. Just lately the Bush team looks less like The Untouchables and more like the Keystone Kops.

[KharmaTrain]

22. This Is Worse Than '68

While I was young, I vividly remember 1968...in many ways the year of my political awaking...so I think I can judge the mood of that time as to what I'm seeing now.

This nation is FAR more Conservative now than it was in '68...where the youth culture and civil right movements had established a strong following among young people...a far larger percentage of the population than now...and widespread acceptance in the media. It was cool to protest the war. You can't say that right now.

I also remember the aftermath of Kent State. First, it was 1970...not 1968...and I look at it as the opposite end of book-ends...starting with the DNC riots in '68 into the Days of Rage in '69 and then the massive protests that weren't just at Kent State but at college campus across the country. Schools were shut down, national guard troops were called onto campuses. We're not seeing anything like that today. In fact, I go and visit my daughter's university and it's as if there is no war...or that those comfortably snug in their dorms could be on the next plane to Baghdad.

Sorry, the WTO images from both Seattle & Washington were disasters. While the vast majority of protestors were peaceful and the messages most groups wanted to present were noble, they were bypassed by the images of broken shop windows and cops battling with protestors. If anything it built up a right wing backlash that now turns a lot of these monkeys against outsourcing despite it taking their own stupid jobs.

This regime is based on soundbites and images...and getting the first word in and the last word out. Civil unrest plays into the "meme" of "stability in tough times"...or whatever bullshit slogan this regime will use. Having cops busting heads in Central Park...no matter who threw the first punch, or that it was just a small number or you missed the message won't work.

Never sell this cabal short. They've spent 20 years honing a lexicon and developing an elaborate PR machine that has been highly efficient and ruthless. Yes, Gay marriage HAS worked to the RoveCo. advantage as it's energized a base that was splintering between immigration, defecits and the Iraq invasion. Those all got swept aside with this non-issue that the gays did overplay (and still are) by turning this into "Stonewall 2" or equating it with the Black Civil rights movement of 50 years ago. That's just what Rove wants...the pictures go on the church newsletters and cash appeals.

Sorry, my idealism has been woken to reality one to many times in my nearly 50 yeears.

Cheers.

[digno dave]

21. yep

well said.

Fox news will frame it as if Kerry is out front leading the "mob" protests, armed with a peace lapel pin and a molatov(sp?) cocktail.

[HawkerHurricane]

9. Rove's insane.

The majority of San Diego's MILITARY I've talked to won't vote for Bush... what makes him think the civilians will?

BTW, a good portion of those military voters will be voting in other states, since thier home of record is elsewhere.

[tobius]

23. how many military people you talk to about their vote? nt

[HawkerHurricane]

26. About a couple dozen.

Mostly USN, with 2 USMC and 1 USArmy (recruiter) thrown in. Sitting around on a ship, the 'bull session' conversations... when politics come up, there are no strong Bush defenders. We had one, but he refused to re enlist; something about not going back to the Gulf again. It was funny, the biggest 'We gotta get Hussein' guy on board, and he didn't want to go back.

[Dob Bole]

10. My instincts tell me no...

They might get within five percentage points, but that's it. There will be very little Nader-factor this time, despite the fact that there is a Nader...

[terryg11]

13. been paying attention to Cali lately?

Arnold, who has been the butt of jokes everywhere is making headway in California. G. Davis and Feinstein came out in support of his $15 billion dollar debt plan and is getting things done. Now I know he's supposed to be a far cry from a Bush lap dog on the issues but he's already shared the stage once with the guy and when it comes to election time you think he's not going to be putting some muscle behind the prez's campaign out there? California could definitely be in play.

[knight_of_the_star]

15. I live here

Trust me, people ain't happy with Bush, and it is rapidly becoming obvious to most people out here that Arnie has all his brains in his biceps and is a total puppet. His measures may have passed, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to win here for Bush. One of the reasons he got in is BECAUSE he is perceived as a moderate Republican, something that Bush is obviously not and THAT difference will matter more to people out here than the letter after their names.

[terryg11]

16. I hope you are right

I don't like the thought of a dem candidate having to work too hard out there. Would be nice to have one less battleground state.

[CalebHayes]

19. now we can sleep at night

:)

[tedoll78]

14. No way.

Rove's delusional if he thinks he can win either.

Gore beat Bush in CA by 12% in 2000 without spending much at all (if any!). Kerry is currently leading Bush by that same margin in CA, and the Green threat will not be present.

Gore beat Bush by large double-digits in NY with CA-level spending (little-to-none).

Bank on it: barring some horrific Kerry scandal, these states are deep, deep blue.

[TahitiNut]

17. It's a Power Money Tactic ...

Those are the two most expensive campaign states. The media market are huge and costly. RoveBushCo have enormous campaign coffers and merely attacking in those markets forces the opposition to spend money -- and they don't have as much.

[humble truth]

20. I live in NY, and I say no way.

Any small boost Bush gets here will be gone come November. People really dislike him in NY. He may do a bit better upstate, but he'll be lucky to get 35% in the city. Plus, people have not forgotten that if the GOP had their way, they would have all stayed in a cruise shipped docked off shore.

[ithacan]

24. Convention in NY and exploitation of 9/11

There is no way Bush will take NY given this blatant exploitation of tragedy.

Plus New Yorkers know the truth: That he's cut funding for NY emergency response; the EPA lied to New Yorkers about air quality after 9/11; and Bush is REFUSING to testify to the 9/11 commission, REFUSING to talk to the chair and vice chair of the commission for more than one hour, REFUSING to testify under oath.

I think this whole thing is going to blow up in their faces.

Remember, Rove, though evilly clever, is still just a hick who does not really understand how much of this country works.

[3rdParty]

25. Remember that NY & CA & NYC have repubs leading them.

something that has to be taken into consideration.