I think I'm going to be sick (Peak Oil)

[Suspicious]

Thanks to someone here, I decided to go have a look at the site.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

I can not recall ever in my life being as terrified as I was by the time I finished reading everything there. I could not sleep last night.

Even the most optimistic experts offer little hope for our situation. I had high hopes pinned on renewables - it seems this may be nothing more than fantasy.

Has anyone here seen anything remotely positive with regard to the future of the human race in the face of this looming catastrophe? If so, please point me to it...all the Prozac in the world won't help me, at this point. Discussing something like the meaning/repercussions of a movie like "Passion" now seems ludicrous and surreal to me.


All I can think of is my children, and how I should go about preparing them for what appears to be an inevitably ugly future.

:scared:

[meow mix]

1. at least theres time!

right now, you can get the things you might need.
but at some point in time...
everyones gonna be scrambling, and those things will become scarce.
i suggest starting early =)

[mhr]

76. Not As Much As You Might Think

Peak Oil Websites of interest include:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Home.html
http://globalpublicmedia.com/
http://www.oilcrash.com/
http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/
http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html
http://www.asponews.org
http://www.gulland.ca/depletion/depletion.htm
http://www.dieoff.org/
http://www.oilanalytics.org/
http://www.greatchange.org/
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
http://www.after-oil.co.uk/
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
http://hubbert.mines.edu
http://www.museletter.com/archive/cia-oil.html

Books:

Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil
by David Goodstein

The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies
by Richard Heinberg

Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage
by Kenneth S. Deffeyes

The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight : Waking Up to Personal and Global Transformation
by Thom Hartmann

The Oil Factor: How Oil Controls the Economy and Your Financial Future
by Stephen Leeb, Donna Leeb

News Groups:

Energy Resources
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/

Alas Babylon
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AlasBabylon/

Running on Empty
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/

[jokerman93]

2. Please remember my friend

If there is any hope at all, it begins at the moment we turn the tide of fear. I've been in the same state of dispair as you, and in a twisted way, it's where they want us to be. Ordinary people are nothing more than chattel in the New World Order.

We can live under this terror and allow it to come. Or we can start speaking out.

I can only encourage you to find a way that suits you. It's the only cure -- to know you've done all you can in the face of insurmountable odds. I think the solution, and it DOES exist, will require humanity to dig very deep.

There is still hope. But the answers are radical.

(Just my humanity asserting itself...)

[Suspicious]

Thanks for the uplift.

I'm a hybrid of sorts - an impracitcal combination of realist/idealist trapped in the same body.

Generally, I find myself recoiling in instant fear to anything threatening (whether the perceived threat is physical or emotional); then I get irritated with the fear, itself, then I relentlessly confront the source of the original fear until I feel I've mastered it. It's a system that has worked for me throughout my life, but I've never been faced with anything of this magnitude. I guess my coping strategy is about to face the ultimate test.

The weird thing is, I've had this impending sense of doom all of my life. I always chalked it up to my awareness of my own mortality. Maybe I was wrong.

There is still hope. But the answers are radical.

Without a doubt...radical, indeed.

[reprehensor]

3. Talk about it.

Get the word out. It's still not part of everyday conversation, and wouldn't it be better if people had a grasp on this issue before it is too late?

Email all your friends, co-workers, etc. Talk to everyone you know about the topic.

Instead of spending 87 Billion on war, it should be spent on renewable energy research.

Join some progressive organizations, and bring up Peak Oil as a possible topic for action.

www.truemajority.com
www.americacomingtogether.com
www.redefeatbush.com
www.moveon.org

Don't give up, we need you. Turn your panic into constructive energy. Write letters to the editors of your local paper. Suggest your friends do the same. Make the media pay attention to Peak Oil.

Stop supporting activites that piss away petroleum for fun like there is no end to oil reserves. I'm talking organized sports. Trade in that SUV for a hybrid, or an ULEV (Ultra Low Emissions Vehicle). Do something constructive.

Be brave.

Send a fax to Senator Kerry, send a bunch.

[Suspicious]

25. I have have been

blabbing all day long, trust me. (My first task of the day was to put homemade flyers in both lobbies of the apartment building I live in - and yes, I will definitely be seeking more sustainable living arrangments in the very near future :) ).

It's frightening, but caving to fear doesn't appeal to me in the slightest.

Thanks for all of the positive suggestions, as well as the links. My Favorites are piling up.

[jus_the_facts]

4. It's really beyond pathetic that we've been so irresponsible isn't it..

.....all I can tell you is...I know how you feel...the environment is my main concern....we've known for a hundred years there were alternatives to the combustion engine but thanks to the POWERS THAT BE we've been totally dependant on FOSSIL FUEL when we never had to be to begin with....I'm so sorry for the future that your children will inheirit from us....this is one of the very reasons I decided not to have any. :(

[Suspicious]

38. To be honest,

if the information I have today had been a blip on my radar screen 15 years ago, I never would have made the decision to have children. Never. Not only would I have understood the dire importance of reproductive responsibility in the face of such a crisis, I would not have knowingly inflicted such a potentially wretched future on my own children.

I thought I was being responsible when I made the decision to have only two children. Your responsibility is certainly appreciated.

[democratreformed]

43. One thing I plan to do

is make sure that my children are aware and have the knowledge to grow their own food and are prepared for what will happen. One of my children is married now. The other will be 9 next month.

[Suspicious]

47. Mine are 14-1/2 and 9.

Your plan sounds very similar to mine. My oldest, since September 11, is extremely panicky and frightens easily at the mention of anything like this. I'm trying to find ways to open the subject up with them without sounding like the prophet of doom. :(

My father was a lifelong farmer - I have at least a bit of background, so that's a plus.

[democratreformed]

51. Me too.

I'm a country girl and have always been proud of that but am even more proud now. I feel like it gives me some knowledge to start with. I haven't broached the subject with my oldest yet, either, but I will.

Another of the suggestions on that site you mentioned was to get out of debt, which I have been working on anyway. Now, I'm just hoping I can do it in time.

Some of the other posts on here offer a little more hope than that site did. They at least make me hope that we have a little more time than that site indicated.

I have a science background as well (majored in biology), so I have been thinking all day about what kind of experiments I might try to come up with something helpful (he-he, my reaction to fear and stress is to ACTION). Anyways, this all certainly gives me a lot to think about and sure changes how I view the future.

[ellie]

110. You know,

that is funny that you should mention that. Years ago I was explaining to my sister why I didn't want children and I said that due to the dwindling resources here on the earth, I didn't want to be part of the problem. She just laughed at me like I was crazy. But apparently I was right. I just sent her the link.

[jpak]

5. We truely live in the Golden Age

Future Americans will be in awe of what our civilization once was...and they will curse us bitterly for being so selfish and stupid.

[tridim]

10. At least I'll be able to tell my grandchildren

that I never owned a car that got less than 30mpg. I wish I could tell them that I did better than that, but I'm too poor to buy a hybrid car. What will the Hummer owners tell their grandkids? I have a feeling the conversation will end with, "You we're an asshole grandpa."

[junker]

6. namaste. Do not worry overly about Universe. There are

both individual alternatives to oil use, as well as societal ones.

In spite of what you may read, the theorems developed by Maxwell in the 1850s and refined by Tesla, and further by Townsend Brown, do certainly show the potential for what are called 'over- unity' devices to produce energy. These do so at many levels.

Further, 300 thousand times more energy arrives from the sun every day in the form of heat/light than is used in a year by all humans. In addition, 11 times more energy arrives from the sun in the form of electricity (high energy particles) than arrives as light or heat.

So Tesla's induction/extraction method for breaking the di-electric current and 'grounding' part of the solar electricity into terrestrial distribution systems is entirely practical. Likely will be adopted one the politico's get some cajones and admit to the true nature of the situation.

Also bear in mind personal responsibility toward your own survival and progression. So do what you can. As gandhi responded when asked by a hindi citizen why he should act when his life/action was so small, all things considered, 'all actions are both insignificant, and vitally necessary'.

So do your part and act. Get sick if you want, but then get over it and get on to it.

you can make yourself miserable, or make yourself tough, the amount of work required is the same.

Namaste. Like the smile.

[junker]

9. check out growbiointensive.org.

One of the primary uses for oil is food production....every drop not used is a drop not needed.

get strong 2 go long...

[arcos]

7. Yes, it will be ugly...

But you can prepare yourself and your family. We don't have much time left to do anything, but we, on an individual basis, can help ourselves and our loved ones.

Something positive? We can work on a totally new society, a totally new phase for the human race. Your children are probably in a key generation... you must prepare them for what we will be facing in the few years.

Don't be scared... Now you know and should spread the word. People have a right to know what is going to happen. But for now, relax... if you are planning to buy a new home, try to install solar panels or wind generators... You have plenty of time to do that, at least 10 years.

If you are planning to buy a new car, try to buy a hybrid... and teach your children the importance of saving resources.

[meow mix]

8. btw, war spoils are coming...

for now at least, we will all be rich oil shieks!

UPDATE: Iraq Starts Oil Exports At Khor Al-Amaya

Earlier in the week, SOMO officials said the Khor Al-Amaya terminal will start loading at a rate of 300,00-400,000 barrels a day and gradually increase to 800, 000 b/d, although they gave no time frame. On Friday SOMO sources declined to give details about future scheduled loadings.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20040227/bs_dowjones/200402271334000792

[Kolesar]

11. then this one will make you plainly despondent

www.dieoff.org
Join us in the E&E forum sometime. Part information sharing, part looming-disaster-anxiety support group.

[Suspicious]

27. I've been there,

and I intend to go back. That was one of the sites with so much information, I saved it for reference.

I didn't realize there was a forum there...information sharing AND looming-disaster-anxiety support group - this is for me!

[Kolesar]

32. I mean Dem Underground Energy & Environment forum.......eom

[Suspicious]

34. Oh!

Well, even better - thanks for clarifying (sometimes I completely miss the obvious).

[Deja Q]

12. Here's a hint for people:

Buy "Final Exit" (3rd edition), stock up on the needed items, and wait until the time is right.

This is an issue that can't be cured. 2 reasons:

1. The GREED of the oil industries is more important than our civilization.

2. No amount of renewable resources can sustain what we have now. We'd have to scale back big time. Remember, our society is not based on balances for stability but through unchecked expansion.

It's just more proof America doesn't care about people. Only money. And Karma is approaching the door to ring the doorbell a couple of times, later knock on it, then knock in it really loudly, and then it's going to crash the door and ransack the house.

America will doom the world to failure because it is the leader, it is irresponsible, it puts greed over stability or future concerns (just like the budget and anything else those fucking vile repukes and other corporate-friendly bastards do, though you'd probably noticed already...)

I don't even need to see the site to know what's going to happen, and I'd thought this out some time ago:

1. No transportation. No trucks to move needed products (food) and wanted products (the pointless crap our society wants to buy to keep the economy going). Don't forget tank,s helicopters, et cetera... it'll be hard to get to a hospital if you need to.

2. Plastic. Just one word. See anything that has plastic in it, you won't see it in the future. From hairbrushes to CDs to hospital equipment that saves lives. It is gone. Forever. NASCAR gets some well deserved blame for OUTRIGHT WASTING RESOURCES THAT CAN BE USED TO CREATE PLASTIC FOR PROPER REASONS.

3. Food. We've overworked the world's soil so badly, we have to use petrochemical-based fertilizers to keep it going. Petrochecmical. That's OIL, folks. (don't forget energy made by burning food... corn is becoming more commonplace...)

4. Energy. As I said, no alternative fuel is going to be a significant help. Apart from nuclear, none of the resources can begin to replace oil in terms of how much we use. and show me how ANY collection resources or nuke plants can be made WITHOUT PLASTIC. Yet alone our need for transport: gas, electric, or hybrid, they all use plastic too.

I'm sure the ramifactions are more widespread than this, but what I've said is pretty encompassing and scary as it is. I don't want to know what else will happen, including the wars the US will openly wage to collect more of the damn substance. The lives hurt and the lives lost just to satisfy our filthy oillust. Of course, the military and repukes love violence and blowing things up, so their bloodlust will be satisfied too.

I will not be around when the unescapable calamity happens. Oh, I'm damn serious when I mention "Final Exit". Think about it. How many of us were trained/raised to survive in harsh conditions? Can you change abruptly to utter isolation, where distances that once took minutes to get to would now take DAYS? I know I can't.

Which is better, a quick death or a slow agonizing one?

And, best of all, the human garbage known as "wealthy people" will be in the same boat, and their stash of dollars won't help them one damn bit. I suppose that's the bit of good news in the downfall of modern civilization.

[AlienGirl]

15. The necessary equipment?

A car, a bag of charcoal, and a tabletop grill? :shrug:

Tucker

[Deja Q]

17. I won't say. Buy the book:

You can buy it at borders, barnes and noble, amazon.com and other big chains.

Small chains and self-propriatorships won't carry it, but that's okay: borders et al are closing down those stores as we speak.

[SmileyBoy]

30. Boy, we're Mr. Sunshine today, aren't we???

Quite frankly, I'm more concerned about a large asteroid striking the Earth in the next 30 years than a shortage in our oil supply.

[Dogmudgeon]

50. Asteroid vs Oil Crunch

Here's my bad math for you:

Chances of an asteroid impacting the Earth between 2004-2104:
10 km: .0002% (Chicxulub scale impact)
3 km: .2% (Eltanin scale impact)
1 km: 2.0% (massive global destruction)
100 meters: 20% (massive local, some global destruction)
30 meters: 200% (Tunguska scale impact)
10 meters: 2000% (minor local destruction)
3 meters: 20,000% (fireworks and sonic booms)
(Figures (poorly calculated by bkl) after John Gray, The Age of Iron and Ice; Napier and Clube, The Comsic Serpent)

Chances of an oil crunch where prices rise above $100/barrel:
2005: 10% ("Peak Oil")
2010: 25% (Beginning of possible oil panic)
2015: 50% (Economic impacts certain by this point)
2020: 90% (Significant mortality from famine, cold)
2025: 99% (Oil for military use and plastic fabrication only)
(Conservative estimates from various authorities; see www.dieoff.com for individual papers.)

I also believe, very strongly, that the next Ice Age is starting. Right now. When will the big climate flip-flop happen? I suspect that the break point happens when CO2 hits 500-600 PPM. I'd say it's 50:50 that it hits before 2030.

No contest. Oil "wins", climate "places", and that still leaves out the possibility of another world war, the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano, occurrences of pandemics, and the radiation from a galactic core explosion irradiating the Earth.

Sorry. I hope I'm wrong.

--bkl
Prepare for anything. Expect nothing. Enjoy living.

[Deja Q]

66. Given the collection statistics of the last 4 years...

Peak oil may have been in 2000. Not 2005. This pushes those estimates down by 5 years.

The crisis is nigh. :-(

We should have gone into panic mode during the 1970s. We kinda did but got back out. Oops.

I also am not sure on this 'ice age' business. How can it happen simulaneously with global warming?

[Minstrel Boy]

86. how global warming could precipitate an ice age:

Melting polar ice flush fresh water into the North Atlantic, decreasing salination, slowing down or stopping the Gulf Stream, causing temperatures to plunge in Northern Europe and much of North America.

Global warming can be a misnomer. What we should be talking about is climate change.

[Deja Q]

64. Knowing the statistics... it's curtains, even the asteroid misses Earth..

Oil crash will guarantee a 90% kill, possibly higher. The only people who would survive would be the rural folk who grow their own food and know how to creatively survive the harsh reality.

An asteroid will destroy all life, period, as it had for the dinosaurs. On the plus side, we'd all eventually contribute to new oil beds for society 65 million years from now to discover...

If you ask me, I prefer the latter now.

Why?

The US is going to steal and take more oil as time goes by. NAFTA already allows the US to steal, er take, Canada's oil as needed (that's the price for free trade, along with keeping their drugs out of this country). But if it gets to thermonuclear war, that's going to be more devastating than an asteroid - though maybe after a few million years things would cool back down.

Most significantly: An astroid may or may not hit the earth. Perhaps the Klingons got tired of us from a distance... But running out of oil is definitive and unavoidable.

Now if the asteroid contained oil...

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

78. hey, stick around to gloat!

why not?

[Dees]

13. The fact that we are still pulling stuff up out of the ground

to fuel machinery and put petros in our goods tells you where we are with energy technology. Did we not split the atom? We are just getting started. Science is the easy part. Trimming desires is the difficult task. Sooner rather than later would be optimal however.

[Deja Q]

21. NASCAR would be a good start...

Even then, by the time it becomes an utter necessity to look for an all-encompassing replacement that oil offers, it'll be far too late.

And given the profits oil gives the big corproations, do you expect them to work for the cause of humanity? NO! Only their pocketbooks.

And that is our demise. Our greed having precedence over survival and continuance.

Sodom and Gomorrah went the same way: God's wrath of the greedy and selfish. (some bastard re-wrote it to blame gays, but that rewriting has been denounced, fortunately.)

Oh, could we have split the atom without plastic being involved?

[Donkeyboy75]

102. Sure. There were

very few plastics around in the 1940s. The atom being split depended not at all on plastic.

[proud patriot]

14. What about the guy who invented the segway

his gyroscope engine has potential an IMHO
is very intriguing

[Deja Q]

19. Made with lots of plastic...

No oil = no plastic.

Segway isn't going to help anybody's bippy in the long run. And in the short run, it'll just make more people obese. But that's okay, given the price of these pieces of junk, you'd have to be wealthy and/or stupid to buy one.

[proud patriot]

26. No silly It's a different invention of his

:silly: not the segway . He has a prototype of a
self containing and sustaining gyroscope engine .

[izzie]

16. I do not think any one cares. They have been saying this for years.

Look how people live and they get really up tight if any one tells them anything else. Bigger homes that people keep at 72 and cooled in summer. Please do not open a window. I can not sweat. Bigger cars that save no gas.One for every one in the family. Could not take a train or bus.It just goes on and on and you can not do a thing but wait I guess. Same with food, it could be grown in other ways but why if this is so cheap and the big companies can make their millions.Remember when the population was going to be make it standing room only? Well an odd thing happened. Western people stopped having all the children and now we just have to worry about the third world countries. One thing we can know for sure is that change will come, as change is always with us.

[cally]

18. I went through a similar despair 25 years ago

when I first learned of these issues. (I admit, I only skimmed the reference but I've much about this) Yes, fossil fuels will become harder to harness. We won't run out as they will become too expensive for all but the most important uses. As the price rises, alternatives become more viable. One of our biggest obstacles is that it is cheaper to drive a single vehicle, park, and waste resources. It is cheaper for most of us to heat our house with fossil fuels than to install solar energy or even a windmill. It is cheaper to use the water system than to build a catch basin for rain water and a household recycling system. For cars, some of the alternative ideas do work but there are downsides that seem overwhelming now. We don't have the infrastructure to recharge batteries at work, the stations to refill with hydrogen gas, etc. As petroleum gets more scarce, we will.

I'm more worried about the ozone layer and global warming. I think we may destroy our planet with those.

[arcos]

28. Read this...

it was posted a few mins ago as another thread http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/

[cally]

31. I'm not dismissing the crisis

One of the dumbest votes cast this session of congress was allowing SUVs to not meet better gas mileage standards. Gore understood these issues and would have pushed for better standards and development of alternatives.

We're facing a crisis. Our current lifestyle is not sustainable nor exportable.

I'm still more worried about Global Warming and the depletion of the ozone layer. I actually hope the oil is used up so we can deal with the global warming crisis before it is too late. Our complacency is terrifying.

[amazona]

20. there's a lot more oil and gas than these people realize

I used to be in the industry, and one thing I took away from it is that oil and gas is just everywhere. I have a little hobby of whenever anyone says, "But there's no oil there," I check the reserves for that nation or area and, almost inevitably, there ARE reserves there -- it's just that people haven't troubled to get them yet because the price of oil isn't quite high enough to make it economic.

When you look at a mature oilfield like the Gulf of Mexico and realize that we've been drilling for decades and we're nowhere near running out, you calm down a lot. Gas prices will have to rise, but once they do, they'll start drilling the Gulf again -- there is a lot of deep oil there, but it isn't worth drilling when oil is $15 a barrell.

Most "alternative" energy sources are discouraging, to say the least, but we have two hundred years or more to figure something out. Well, we don't really have that long because the burning of fossil fuels is causing global climate change, so what will actually happen is that we'll figure out some alternative long, long, long before the last drop of oil is drilled.

I am not saying this just to calm your hysteria. I am saying this because I believe it's true.

Hysteria sells websites, and calm rationality doesn't. All I can suggest is getting a big map of the world and then googling on the reserves in various countries. You'll be amazed. We can't even figure out where all this oil is coming from, such as Pre-Cambrian oil in the former Soviet Union region. Theory doesn't necessarily explain why the oil is there. But there's sure a heck of a lot of it.

[meow mix]

23. its how much is "economically recoverable" - not the physical amount

this auto-response was generated by -meowmix

[wuushew]

24. The amount recovered in the future will not equal today's

we have peaked. Production will continue to fall while demand will continue to increase. This is the crux of the problem. Once you are on the downside of the curve how much oil you can recover simply becomes an exercise in delaying the inevitable.

[SammyWinstonJack]

29. I wish I had read your post first

Thanks for a somewhat reassuring post.

[wuushew]

33. I would not be so assured

increases in energy prices cause both inflation and economic stagnation. Without sufficient input from other(cheap) energy sources we will eventually have a repeat of the 1970's.

Now I generally give Bill Clinton due credit on his economic policies but the sad fact is that the price of energy was extremely cheap during the 90's. This held down inflation and interest rates, which in turn allowed the golden economy to flourish. There is a graph somewhere which shows how energy prices are extremely correlated to boom-bust cycles.

[SammyWinstonJack]

35. I did say "somewhat"

nt

[NashVegas]

36. Reserves May Be Overstated

According to this guy:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0446533173/qid=1078017503//ref=pd_ka_1/104-6736443-5290359?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

[jason_au]

49. Lots more, perhaps, but not infinite oil

Working obliquely in the oil industry myself, I understand Amazona's point that there are plenty more reserves (currently uneconomic) than are commonly thought - both in the US and otherwise.

However, there are not infinite oil&gas reserves. Figures I read recently (quoting the USGS) put the total amount of oil in the world at 3.2 trillion barrels, of which around 1.1 trillion has already been used. The point is, at some point in the future - in 10 years, 100 years or 500 years depending on who you believe, we will run out of oil.

In the meantime, as easily exploitably oil reserves are depleted, the cost of producing that oil will rise, which drives up the cost of oil. Also, demand is increasing, which also tends to push up the price of oil. It is possible to imagine a not too distant future where fuel might cost $20 a gallon (before accounting before inflation).

I'll make a prediction here: Within the next 20 years, serious political pressure will develop (most likely, but not only, from the US Republicans and their sponsors) to drill for oil on Antarctica. There's plenty of oil down there if anyone is so crass as to drill for it.

Cheers from down under,

Jason

[democratreformed]

52. Several weeks ago,

I came up with the theory that there MUST be oil on Mars. LOL

Sorry, I know this is a serious topic but I really thought about that.

[Suspicious]

53. Helium 3 (Moon)

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/helium3_000630.html

This link is from the site linked in my original post. The author (of the Life After the Oil Crash site) seems to believe it is not feasible. :(

I wish I had a better background to draw my own conclusions from...the learning curve is steep.

Helium 3 is an element barely found on Earth, but found in abundance on the moon. Researchers see it as the perfect fuel source: extremely potent, nonpolluting, with virtually no radioactive by-product.

Helium 3 sounds great, until you find out that a nuclear fusion reactor is needed for it to be of any use. Even after 40 years of research and billions of dollars spent, nobody has been able to build such a reactor.

Even if scientists solved the fusion problem, the the economics of extracting and transporting Helium 3 from the moon are particularly problematic. According to Jim Benson, chairman of SpaceDev in Poway, California, "it would be economically unfeasible . . you'd have to strip-mine large surfaces of the moon"

The fact that the Bush Administration is pursuing such an unviable source of fuel underscores how desperate the situation is getting.

[democratreformed]

55. Yeah, I read that last night too.

You're right, the learning curve is steep.

[arrogantatheist1000]

77. nuclear power can easily do it

nuclear could not only give us all the power we need but do it much much cheaper then currently available.

But the problem with nuclear or any potential alternative like tidal, is does anyone think that the oil companies will let us change?

Yes after a dramatic collapse and mass starvation and death, we will change, and it will be a better world. I've read extensively on energy and have many friends in the business. Solving the world's energy problems is technologicaly very simple. In fact we've had the answers for over 30 years.

And as I said not only would we not have to change, we could actualy do far more energy intensive applications then we can do now. But again just like in the 1970's the oil companies will stop new energy sources from replacing them, and they did it in the 1970's even during oil shocks.

It won't be until after complete collapse and revolution to get rid of these oil leeches in our centers of power. And not just in America but around the world. That is the way of man, go with one system until it insanely breaks down causing cataclysmic losses then revolution then a new and better way.

[belle]

95. Maybe they'll find Lovecraft's lost civilization...

Seriously, you're probably right. I wonder if *living* down there is ever going to be a possibility. I could see that before trying to colonize the moon or Mars, certainly.

[porkrind]

91. Thanks for the info !

It's always nice to hear from an expert. Sounds reasonable from what I've heard also. We have some time in which oil prices can rise as demand outstrips supply. These higher prices will make alternative energy sources profitable to research and implement.

[kysrsoze]

99. There is oil and gas available - we just have to figure out how to get it

My ex-father-in-law was in the military for awhile. He told me there are massive reserves in the Pacific Northwest which the govt. holding on to, for emergency situations. I've also seen documentaries about massive (seriously, massive) amounts of natural gas locked into Canadian ice. There are also new offshore rigs which can drill in the most extreme conditions and can actually direct the bits to move diagonally and sideways. If we're resourceful enough, this should keep us going for awhile.

However, we still need to develop alternative fuels. If we were smart about it, we would have poured the almost $200B we've wasted on Iraq on alternative energy research. We could have resources and infrastructure within 10 to 20 years if we started now.

I'm pinning my hopes on getting the current assholes out of office and having an administration who sees the necessity and potential windfall of developing a new energy infrastructure. I guess we'll see.

[rman]

108. experts speak of "ever-more unforgiving production results"

http://www.peakoil.net/

Paris Peak Oil Conference Reveals Deepening Crisis

May 30, 2003, PARIS – Research presented on May 26th and 27th at the French Institute for Petroleum (IFP) by a wide variety of experts from varying and often competitive perspectives disclosed that, in the year since the first conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), supply constraints have worsened and the realities of energy depletion are becoming more apparent. A year of violent political history centered on oil and ever-more unforgiving production results have begun to force reluctant political and economic acknowledgement of Peak Oil’s threat to civilization.
...

[GreenPartyVoter]

22. BP, GE, other companies cashing in on oil are switching over

It may sound like a conspiracy theory, but the deal is all these companies are milking us for as much $ as they can get out of us on fossil fuels. Then during the peak crisis they'll roll out products based on alternative energies at amazingly high prices because they can get away with it.

It's Enron on a global scale, folks.

[Deja Q]

37. It'll backfire

Add in all the other events, namely a strong stable economy where people have jobs which allow them the luxury of affording necessities...

Even still, PLASTIC. No oil = no plastic. Plastic products or products using plastic are going to skyrocket; including products makde with these alternative-energy resources.

It's a vicious circle.

[GreenPartyVoter]

41. A researcher in Japan

has found a way to turn old food scraps into plastic.

I forget where I read this, though.


Who knows, we might wind up digging up all our old landfills to mine them for more plastic to recycle. :eyes:

OR, we go back to being less of a disposable culture.

~Jen, who really has to give up those ziploc baggies

[charlie]

39. A small note of hope for you

This is a reprint of a Discover article I read last year. It doesn't include the original's images unfortunately (the original is now tucked into a pay-per-view ghetto), but the full text is there:

http://lists.envirolink.org/pipermail/ar-news/Week-of-Mon-20030804/004435.html

A company has tweaked the old process of thermo-depolymerization so that it's efficient enough to extract oil and its byproducts cost effectively, using most any carbon-based material as seed. Other commercially valuable products result from the process as well. It's an intriguing development.

Here's another article:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/11/1125_031125_turkeyoil.html#main

[wuushew]

40. That process like many others is energy negative

although I encourage its developement as it finds a great use for what otherwise would be waste.

[charlie]

44. It's energy negative

to the extent that it requires a virtually no-cost source of raw material to process, namely commercial waste. But as far as I know, the process itself is energy self-sufficient -- that is, it uses it's own refined gas to power the cooking process and still produces enough oil and mineral product to be profitable.

[democratreformed]

42. It does put everything into a different perspective, doesn't it?

I had much the same experience as you last night. I have been reading even more today. Now, I understand why my sister wants to build a house underground that will generate its own electricity and water. Don't ask me how. I don't know all the details, I just know she talks about it alot. She says it is made so that you can grow food inside your house. I don't know much about how the water thing works. The electricity is solar for the most part, I think.

I've just been doing a lot of reading and thinking today.

I'm glad you posted this thread so I can see what others have to say.
Thanks.

[midnight armadillo]

101. Earthship

Earthship.org - this is prob what she means. They rock.

[burythehatchet]

45. I posted this in another thread

I believe that all knowledge that can be known has been known.

I believe that there it is not a coincidence that we are undergoing this incredible societal transformation, while simultaneously, the world's oil supply has peaked.

I believe that governments are being starved, weapons are being accumulated by the powerful, and the weapons held by the people possessing the oil are being dismantled.

A few large corporations will soon become the defacto governors of our lives. Their authority will be based entirely upon their control of the oil.

I believe that this will be the last form of government before mankind either perishes or "resets".

The religious fanatics understand this as well, at a sub-conscious and instinctual level. Their prism says its because Jesus is coming. Fine. This is because it is the opium that will calm the people during the end times.

Don't expect gas prices to EVER go down. You may want to lose your Hummer.

Invest in a really durable bike.

I have only shared with you my perception of what I believe is the tip of the iceberg. The real issue is so deep that it renders all else we talk about, politically speaking, to be inconsequential.

[nefarious]

46. Politically motivated to prevent alternatives too soon.

I'm with amazona on this one. I had the same fears after the oil embargo in 1974, and thought oil production had peaked and exploration was finding new sources slower than it was being consumed. The official word at that time was "we have 25 years of proven oil reserves remaining." So in that reality, we should be running out now.

Well 20+ years later, the figures I had seen claimed we had 40 years of proven oil supplies. Somehow exploration had increased the world's reserves in spite of the fact that consumption was increasing exponentially!!

What I later realized, and someone in Texaco at the time confirmed it, was that OPEC was being used in a fear-mongering ploy by the major oil companies. At the time they complained bitterly how they had to pay more for supplies of crude oil, but in reality it was playing right into their hands because they marked up the price to the consumers more than ever. They got filthy rich during those 7 or 8 years of high prices.

Do I have to remind anyone that history repeats itself?

Anyways, there are alternatives. The Germans stayed in business during both world wars because they were able to synthesize oil from coal. BMW has had a fleet of hydrogen-powered 750iL luxury sedans running taxi/ limousine service at several German airports now for 6 years. Hydrogen is a renewable resource because it comes from water, and when it is burned it makes water vapor. Other posters have mentioned there is a tremendous amount untapped of solar energy reaching our planet. There is also hydroelectric, wind, tidal power, and agriculturally-sourced fuels. Maybe even some chemical fuels that haven't been thought of yet.

Those seeds of change need to be planted now on order to avoid the unpleasant end of civilization as we know it that the doomsday pundits are predicting.

And hopefully we can bring an end to the blood for oil schemes that our planet's greediest graveyard robbers are promoting.

[burythehatchet]

48. Do I have to remind anyone that history repeats itself?

Yes, but resources don't

[JCMach1]

54. Relax (a little) the website you are citing is much too

Pessimistic on the OIL SUPPLY side.

The REAL problem in the coming years is on the DEMAND side.

[Suspicious]

57. Either way,

are we not in the same boat? I guess, if you're saying there is room for more optimism in the supply department, we might buy ourselves a bit of time.

I have no problem curbing my consumption - I car-pool right now, and I own a small, economic vehicle. I'm not a materialistic person. I'm afraid we are a minority, however.

[JCMach1]

73. In some ways it's not even going to be 'US'

Demand in China and India are going to push the markets in the next few years.

One interesting thing about where I live is that we get EXTENSIVE coverage of the oil issue in virtually every newspapaper.

Supply looks good near term. Development in China and India are the 500lb gorilla that will likely crack the market.

I am a little more optimistic about alternative technologies as well. However, I am not confident in our leaders/corporations to take us there.

[charlie]

75. Right, JCMach1

Anyone who banks on crystalline scenarios of how the future will unfold, good or bad, is being jerked around. That popular awareness of the health of the oil economy where you live is extensive is encouraging.

Those who were around during the 70s oil crunch will remember the suffuse fear that we were living in the end-of-oil times. And circumstances seemed to confirm it. We raced from work to take our places in quarter-mile long lines to fill up at stations with dime per gallon savings. We watched with dismay as the price of gas and a loaf of bread climbed a nickel every week (don't snigger, 5% of the dollar was substantial when under 10K per year wasn't poor). There was compulsion to spend every bit of our paychecks now since they would be worth markedly less next month.

We were warned that we were experiencing the downside of a dwindling oil supply. That our current measures toward austerity were a mere foreshadowing of what was to come. For a time, we were truly scared that our lot was as good as could ever be, destined to only get worse.

The bad times proved to not be permanent, though there was little hope to envision a way out from information available to us then.

[kevinam]

56. okay, I am just skimming through it...

and I have already noticed something that is not right. In the first chapter, under food production and oil. The article states "Ammonia is produced from natural gas." Okay, According to the Agency for Toxic substances and disease registry, looks like it is a branch of the CDC, "Ammonia is a gas that occurs naturally in the environment and is also manmade." and "Ammonia is produced naturally in soil by bacteria, decaying plants and animals, and animal wastes." Link: http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/tfacts126.html

Then the article talks about food storage systems such as refrigerators. In a fairly quick search, it appears freon is the primary refrigerant, and that I can tell, freon is "any of several chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that are used in commerce and industry. The CFCs are a group of aliphatic organic compounds containing the elements carbon and fluorine and, in many cases, other halogens (especially chlorine) and hydrogen. " taken from: http://inventors.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://www.britannica.com/eb/article%3Feu=36025
Unless I am mistaken(which is entirely possible) freon does not come from oil.

Also, the article talks about our clean water delivery systems. I am not an expert, but I would guess (since it is not explicit in the article) that is a reference to hydraulic systems used to pump water. First, I don't believe that these systems require vast amounts oil for operation, comparatively speaking. By comparatively speaking, I mean that oil is not burned it is used in a pressurized system and returned to a tank. Second, most hydraulic systems operate using the similar pricipals as pnuematic or water based systems. If there was some type of vast oil shortage, I would think the systems can be changed to a different system.

I am not an expert on this stuff, and I am just going off of reading parts of this article, and information I feel confidently can be verified online. I wonder how much of the information that is much more difficult to confirm is correct. I am sorry, but from my initial skimming, I doubt the claims of that website. If there are scientists, or people with a better knowledge of this stuff, please correct me...Kevin.

[democratreformed]

58. I've been reading a variety of sites all over the net today

Here's one: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/053103_aspo.html

And another:
http://healthandenergy.com/peak_oil.htm

And one more:
http://www.peakoil.org/

[democratreformed]

59. Here's another one I just found:

http://www.lrpworldnews.com/peak_oil/template.php?page=peakoil

[Donkeyboy75]

104. Ammonia is made from the catalytic

reduction of nitrogen gas. It's way too expensive to harvest from microorganisms. No "oil" is involved, but the hydrogen that is used in the catalytic process may need to be harvested from natural gas.

BTW, I am a chemist, although not an industrial one.

[pacifictiger]

60. ok, so we'll all have to adjust our life styles

Get over it. Man survived for thousands of years before oil! In reality peak oil might just turn out to be a good thing and the sooner the adjustments begin the better. Mother earth might then have some time to heal herself. Get your thinking caps on and come up with some alternative solutions to generating alternate energy ideas instead of whining! And if we don't have so much oil, maybe we can get rid of all those warmongering oil barons. "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

[davekriss]

94. Ever hear of global carrying capacity?

At the start of last century's Age of Oil there were about 1.8 billion humans roaming around the globe; now there are over 6 billion and the number is expected to rise to 8 billion by 2020. If indeed growth in oil demand is beginning to exceed discovery and we are about to slide down the steep backward slope of Hubbert's Peak, then how many billions will have to die before a new age of stasis is achieved? What level of military instability is likely? And what jack-booted totalitarian heel will come down on the workers' throat in order to protect the life-styles of the Hummer class? I think the answers are obvious.

Really, the Police try to protect the Banks
And everything else is secondary.
--- D.A. Levy

About a year ago on another board (here) some of us were rehashing some of the arguments for and against the Iraqi war that were made during the summer of 2002. I recall, back then (and now), when holding in mind various PNAC documents, the Baker Study (done by the James Baker III Institute at Rice University), Hubbert's peak, Zbigniew Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard, December 12, 2000, the fact that both GWB and Cheney are oilmen, speculation about 9-11 as LIHOP, the Carnahan and Wellstone plane crashes, Patriot Act I, HSA, and the draft of Patriot Act II, the many last minute ballot "surprises" in 2002, the Afghanistan War and the Unocal pipeline, and of course the march, in 2002, toward war against Iraq with its Goebbelesque manipulation of the media -- all these things taken together led me then to hold in mind briefly the frightening prospect that what me might be witnessing now is a viscious and conscious circling of the wagons by elites in both the U.S. and U.K. to defend and preserve their rapacious way of life. The hell with everything else (which includes all of us)!

Could it be that leadership within these elites recognize the seriousness of Hubbert's Peak and are positioning themselves now to protect their way of life? Could it be that our Mideast and Caspian Basin posture, enhanced by the Iraqi and Afghanistan Wars, are preparing the way for a future dystopia where the few continue to consume as they do today, enforced at gunpoint when necessary, while conditions rapidly deteriorate for the rest of us?

The GWB administration is dominated by neo-conservatives heavily influenced by the political philosophy of Leo Strauss, who believed that elites lead out of innate superiority over the led, and that it is proper and right to lie to the masses in order to keep the latter aligned with the wishes of elites. LIHOP, dissembling over WMD -- these are all consistent with Straussian political philosophy. Will billions die as a result?

If we are indeed witnessing a "circling of the wagons", and projection of Strassian power is really underway, we can all kiss "democracy" and "liberty" goodbye and prepare ourselves for the growing arrival of 1984. I cannot visualize how to counter power so exercised so I'd be pessimistic about stemming its advance. Which is why I only glimpse at this dystopia from time to time and prefer instead to think that what we see now is just factional misguided power, but a power still aligned with the noble vision of our (American) founding fathers. Is this wishful thinking? Time will tell...

"Pax Americana" means the American Peace. The question is, which America? The Land of the Free of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison? Or Leo Strauss's, Ken Lay's, Richard Perl's, and Donald Rumsfeld's? With its mass die-off brought on by scarce water, declining oil, and disappearing arable land; by resource wars both nuclear and by machete; and by famine and pestilence that decimate the populations that by chance find themselves outside those well-guarded first-world bubble communities where children of elites laugh and play unconscious of the misery that takes place just outside their walls.

Things could get -- how do you say -- more than a bit dicey, and in just a generation of two.

[davekriss]

96. And its not the only catastophy ahead of us

Chilling report prepared by the Pentagon...

Now the Pentagon Tells Bush: Climate Change Will Destroy Us
Secret Report Warns of Rioting and Nuclear War; Threat to the World is Greater than Terrorism
by Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in NYTs.

*****

"Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters.

"A secret report, suppressed by US defense chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

"The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

"'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.'

<snip>

*****

There is some urgency behind the report (indicated in the article), as effects are expected beginning next year. The picture painted, of chaos and war, are due to desperate acts by desperate people in face of dwindling food, water, and energy supplies. Not a pretty picture (see the table of "key findings" on the right of the linked page).

The report was commissioned by Andrew Marshall, who heads up the Office of Net Assessment, a security apparatus that sits atop the CIA smd Defemse Department and is implicated (along with the OSP) in the Iraq scandal. If the Net Assessment is reporting such dire and near-term consequences, it is either because (1) the science is solid or (2) there is disinformation value (seeding fear) that furthers the neo-con agenda or (3) both, the most likely option.

The article is not exactly germane to the rest of this thread except to say that it predicts a grim future as the world descends into resource wars, oil included. I posit as I did on my previous post here that the Bush administration is aware of this future and what we have been seeing is the Straussarian manipulation of public opinion while steps are taken to protect the quality of life for elites -- a "circling of the wagons" before catastrophy strikes.)

Time will tell...

[JasonDeter]

61. I think this is great news!

Oil is the scourge of humanity. How many men and women have died because of oil? Because of oil we are at the mercy of people who hate us and oil pays for the weapons for them to kill us. Take away the oil and they have no way to hold us hostage. Plus this is what we have over them; Americans are the most ingenius creative people on the planet and 'Necessity is the mother of invention'. I look forward to Americans needing an alternate source of energy or perish as a people.

[Suspicious]

62. Oil may be the scourge of humanity,

but the infrastructure is so dependent upon it, many will die during the transition if we don't act soon enough - that's assuming there is a transition.

The same people holding all the weapons, wealth and power are the ones who have the capability to begin lobbing those weapons in an effort to hoard the dwindling supply. I don't feel especially comfortable placing my faith in those people to keep humanity's best interests in mind.

[JasonDeter]

72. We have the capability NOW

to make a car that gets 150+ miles a gallon and I'd be willing to bet a SUV to get upwards of 100 MPG. But the politicians are beholding to the oil companies. Let gasoline get up to 5.00 a gallon and you'll see those vehicles in 6 months.

[kysrsoze]

100. I'd say 150 MPG is pushing it, but 100 MPG is certainly possible

You can only get so much energy out of an internal combustion engine. Hoever, Volvo built a turbo-diesel wagon in the 1980's which achieved 100 MPG and had a 0-60 time of 8 seconds (not bad). I read about it in Popular Science. They anticipated the car could be mass-produced with a sticker price of $30K at the time.

Over time, I'm sure the costs would have been tremendously reduced by now. I'm not sure why they didn't go ahead with it. Seems like a serious blunder to me.

[cprise]

103. Volkswagen is selling a CLEAN 95 mpg turbodiesel

The Lupo 3L.

The Volkswagen Lupo 3L TDI has once again proved itself as the world’s most fuel efficient production car by setting yet another record. Gerhard Plattner, an Austrian journalist and economy driving expert, has, for the second time this year, entered the Guinness World Records™ Book in a Volkswagen. Earlier this month Plattner covered a distance of 2,910 miles through 20 European countries in a standard Lupo 3L TDI. He achieved his aim of completing this journey – which started in Oslo, Norway and finished in The Hague in The Netherlands – with just 100 euros worth of fuel. In fact, all he required was 90.94 euros, which corresponds to an average consumption of 2.78 litres per 100 km (101.6 mpg).

http://www.volkswagen.co.uk/press/Lupo_3L_in_Guiness_World_Record


It's a variation of a popular economy car in Europe. 3L is one of the engine/package choices for that model (like Honda selling a hybrid Civic along with the others).

[Deja Q]

63. And who gets to patent it?

I'd finally read all 5 pages of that web site. http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

There's far more to this than just a new energy source. And it's more significant than I had thought. Far more so.

Whether it be in 5 years or 20... do expect 90% of the population, if not more, to perish.

Worse, it's been suggested that peak oil occured in 2000. Given that since 2000, production has been slowly but surely going DOWN...

Those in rural areas will have the greatest chance, though if they use petrochemical fertilizers, et al, they may not be totally well off either.

For real, get "Final Exit" and prepare. :scared:

[plurality]

65. Don't get sick, get ready!

How about we put together a DU survivor colony. We can pool resources and get some land in the Yukon where we can avoid the mobs of cannibals, and can bring all our families and become self sufficient. I also hear Costa Rica's nice, cheap land prices too!

[Kazak]

67. I understand...my wife wants to have kids...

What to do, what to do???

[arikara]

69. That's a tough one, isn't it.

My 30 yr old daughter has decided not to have children. I was a little saddened at first but with the events that have been happening since the bush's took over and with peak oil it is now a relief. There are young people at work who are busy having babies and I really feel concern for them. Some of us pass political and social articles around but I always avoid sending them stuff on scary things like peak oil.

[davekriss]

97. Might I suggest she consider adoption then ?

If she still would like to raise kids but does not want to add to the trembling biomass, there are plenty of kids waiting for adoption. I should know, I adopted two. Challenged siblings (one autistic, the other bipolar disordered); not a day goes by that I can't call an "adventure"! And not an evening goes by without the warmth of close family.

[charlie]

68. Suspicious...

You could do well to back away from sensationalists, like the site that originally sparked your distress. This is not to say that peak oil isn't real or isn't possibly a worldwide calamity in the making ... but this fellow has interests of his own, and they aren't necessarily merely enlightening his site visitors. He has a book to flog, after all. If you thought that the world was really on the brink of reverting to pre-industrial barbary, would you withhold your evidence for any price, especially when the internet enables something that has been a golden (and heretofore impossible until this very moment) dream -- the worldwide dissemination of crucial information FOR FREE?

Think about it. Your (and my) nickel-and-dime musings are being read right now by thousands (and in time, perhaps millions) across far flung corners of the globe. A mere decade ago, the notion that this would be possible was outlandish science fiction. Would you waste the opportunity, unimpeded by cost and physical restrictions, to warn the world? Would you tuck any of it into a book (FOR THE LOW-LOW-PRICE OF $12) and dilute the chances that chaos might be averted?

Remember Gary North? The Y2K bug and the consequences of not addressing the problem was very real. But if you'd listened to him, you'd be posting from a wireless laptop inside a yurt in Montana, with a crate of freeze-dried food and AK-47s by your side. He got stinking rich from his stint as prime Y2K Cassandra. Check out his site now, he's selling prosaic marketing (marketing...hmmm) services today.

Re-read the lifeaftertheoilcrash.com site with an eye wary of manipulation. You'll find numerous instances of the author casting information in a light that compels panic now. Here's something from the snippet about proposed moon and Mars missions you posted above:

The fact that the Bush Administration is pursuing such an unviable source of fuel underscores how desperate the situation is getting.

That's baloney. It's no more evidence of desperate oilmen hoping to harvest H3 than it is evidence of Dubya's desperation for repairing publicly-funded education (NCLB) or publicly-funded medical insurance (Medicare bill), both of which he championed and ultimately signed. Bush floated (and abandoned, though the site author doesn't mention it) space missions with an eye toward gaining electoral support for seemingly broad non-partisan public initiatives.

Gather your own information from sources you can verify as plausible. Don't scare the pants off your kids with the certainty that apocalypse is nigh.

[tobius]

70. thank you for your post. the paranoia and fear around here lately can

certainly use at least a small dose of sanity.

[Suspicious]

79. You know,

I did take notice of the book - and I thought exactly along the same lines. Why, if the world is in such dire straits, would he be keeping information unavailable and releasing it only for a price?

I am trying to keep a level head about this whole thing, trust me. The problem is, as I said earlier, the learning curve is steep. Half of what I read, I have no background knowledge on - my only recourse is to make semi-educated guesses as to the credibility of the author and the information, or spend hours (that I don't have) trying to verify it.

To me, however, it seems realistic that I do my part to conserve as much as possible. Oil is a finite resource, that is simply not disputable. I do think this issue needs to be right out in front of everything - sooner or later, we are going to have to come up with solutions. If we have more time than this particular author is indicating (which I certainly hope we do - this is one time when I would be glad for someone to scold me for believing bad information and provide evidence to the contrary), that's wonderful!

Thank you for your perspective :)

[HydroAddict]

81. Thanks for the sanity break Charlie...

Please read these prophecies of doom and gloom with a skeptics eye. It's not that I disagree with the economic realities of peak oil, but, like other posters have stated, necessity is the mother of invention.

When oil demand outstretches supply, the energy market will be FORCED, by way of our capitalist system, to create new supply. Those not on board with this will "dyeoff" for sure. I expect massive starvation in third world and communist countries. The smart countries/companies will use the few remaining drops strictly for cheap manufacturing, after that the plastic recycling industry takes off.

For me, I don't think any single new energy resource will solve our energy problems. It will have to be a combination of many different technologies that produce a net energy gain.

For instance, imagine huge interconnected floating barges capturing all the environmental energies at sea (wind, wave, lightening, solar, etc.) These would power huge electrolysis engines that transform sea water into hydrogen to be piped/shipped back mainland. The technology exists, it just requires implementation and an infrastructure overhaul via market forces and/or government mandate.

Sooner than later, a future president will have the nads to apply a large chunk of GDP to an Apollo/Manhattan type project building the first of these giant off-shore energy factories on both coasts. Devoting just NASA resources alone might make such a project a reality within five years. Private entities will then copy and improve the technolgies. I could go on and on.

[democratreformed]

82. I'd like to thank you for this perspective too

I have gone through much the same thing as Suspicous. At the same time. I also went to that link night-before-last. I was alarmed as well, so I have been trying to read everything I can find since then.

[Suspicious]

83. We seem to be on the same timeline!

We'll have to keep eachother informed as to our progress... :)

[democratreformed]

87. You got it!

I haven't done much more reading today. Had to go take hubby lunch and then do some paperwork. I'll get back to it tomorrow.

[belle]

93. Uh, yeah, that website's just a *bit* over the top.

North Korea is developing "whites-only" "ethnic bombs?" World War III is "absolutely unavoidable," and 90% of us will be killed off, but we're supposed to take a cue from Tony Robbins (think of it as an opportunity!) and cut back on our meat intake, ride bikes anyway...um, 'k.

Also the part where he sez that Bush has been more active about seeking sources of renewable energy than Clinton, I found just a *tad* unlikely. I guess anything's possible, but I'd sure like to see some data on that one.

Look, there are serious people who've been warning about peak oil: it *is* a real problem. But this guy is just some ex-grad student who cobbled together a bunch of websites and leaped to some rather extreme conclusions.

[davekriss]

98. Might I suggest reading through this thread...

It's been going for over 6 months with interesting insights and useful links: *A petroleum geologist explains US war policy . No one is selling a book, just exchanging annotated ideas -- mostly from peer-reviewed scientific papers, but many a tin-foil hatted site link as well. Give it a read, you may enjoy it (it's up to 10 web-pages now).

Note also that my second posting on this thread, which mentions the report issued by the sober Office of Net Assessment, seem pretty grim too. A perfect storm of natural catastrophies: oil depletion, water scarcity, and global warming leading to the next ice age. First signs starting next year until by 2010 to 2020 the world is plunged in wars of survival. Not a pretty picture.

[Dover]

71. Do suppose this will be before or after the "peak water" crisis?

eom

[Dirty Hippie]

74. Somewhere I read that Bush's Crawford ranch

has alternative energy systems installed and can operate off the grid.

Hummmmm...

Wonder if he is stockpiling food as well.

[Suspicious]

80. I have heard this, too,

on several occasions. This always made me very curious. Why would one of the biggest oil grubbers in the country have this kind of equipment? The scenario we're looking at now never occurred to me.

[tobius]

106. dont know that there will be

room in the freezer, with bin laden and wmds in the freezer

[Deja Q]

84. Kick...

:scared: :cry:

[carols]

85. Growing your own food - help!

Will some of you who posted to this thread about being able to grow your own food, please send me some tips? I live in Florida and have just recently learned to grow stuff - I used to have a really brown thumb, but in the last three years I have transformed my yard into a drought-tolerant lush little tropical oasis. However I still have no luck with food plants. Not even herbs which I have heard are fairly easy. What should I start with? Please PM me with info and tips. It's planting season and this is my project for the year.
Thank you!
Carol

[shanti]

89. just a suggestion

try posting your request in the "meeting room". there are several members that post there that are gardeners and have gardening threads. they are very helpful.

[Bdog]

88. Bio-alcohol is a long term and sustainable alternative.

www.baff.info/english/index.cfm


Environmental awareness a must in a modern society
There are approximately six billion people on this earth, half of them are below 18 years and according to the latest statistics the population will cross ten billion within the next thirty years. We are living in a period of globalisation and people are able to exchange ideas, products and services irrespective of their geographical situation; in a world where even the poor countries strive to achieve a modern infrastructure and a life style which are often based on the ruthless exploitation of nature and its resources.

It is not the ambition to develop that is the villain in the play, but our choice of wrong alternatives during the course of our life. The short- term plan gives a distorted understanding of the world where we are not part of nature's cycle, but are on the exterior. We choose to see the future in decades and centuries instead of millenniums. With the help of positive development and research we must initiate the right alternatives. Those that do not destroy or obstruct the course of nature but is an integral part of it. In the fuel sector there are alternatives that already exist. So why not make the right choice now? Bio-alcohol is a long term and sustainable alternative.

What is the role of BAFF?
BAFF, BioAlcohol Fuel Foundation, is involved in a rapid transformation to renewable fuel that suits the course of nature. They are working for a global cause and BAFF is working towards ensuring Sweden and Swedish industries, play the leading role in this transition. Thus paving the way for a bright future within the Swedish exports. Brazil and USA are world leaders in the production of ethanol and its usage.

Bio-alcohol - a long-term environment friendly alternative
Adapting to the usage of bio-alcohol as a fuel can be best described as a chain of development, in which all links are equally important for a good result. This chain of development begins with the processing of raw material for production and distribution to vehicles and the different engines.
The next link presents the external effects such as emission and marginal values. The last link is the regulations that society imposes in the form of laws, taxes and other factors which helps facilitate the transformation.

[cprise]

90. This country can meet almost ANY oil-stoppage

...that is thrown at it, whether because of politics or lack of supplies, as long as it happens over a period greater than 6-8 months.

What you are experiencing is hysteria and a complete lack of imagination from the people writing those articles and posting to this thread.

So the number of people riding buses increases 10x, plus bicycles both electric and otherwise, and we'll have to start using coal and crops to produce fuel while we bring other alternatives online. Big deal.

People with oil heat may be the only truly suffering demographic.

What's more our electricity supply will remain relatively steady, because natural gas will run out much later than petroleum.

The scary and criminal aspect of our oil use is in its environmental impact. All the other nastiness from corporate/political denial of an oil shortage to the invasion of Iraq centers on the fact that we just don't NEED the oil that much and the oil industry insists on getting every last penny out of oil assets NOW before we switch to alternatives.

[Bdog]

92. I agree

People with SUVs are the ones that are going to get screwed.

All of the American cars manufactures sell flex fuel cars. Be sure to check your VIN and your Owner's Manual if you find your vehicle listed here, you can use E85! ethanol
www.agriculture.state.ia.us/e85vehicles.html

If you really feel like doing something, go purchase a high mileage small used Japanese car real cheep.

I drove a Ford Taurus with a 3 L V6 and it got 30mpg on the freeway and 20mpg in the city. You can get a used Taurus with the V6 real cheep.

I have a Ford Ranger with the same V6 and I have 180,000 miles on it. I know of people that have gotten over 250,000 miles out of those V6s.

[Donkeyboy75]

105. Hello, Suspicious

Let me try to quell your fears a bit. That website does not properly take into account how demand will fall as prices increase...which will surely happen.

Finally, some energy experts with some influence are taking notice. We are starting to see reports that recommend that oil be priced at $60 a barrel. Based on scientific progress regarding alternative energy sources (and the tremendous increases in energy funding), this is the price at which oil demand will fall to levels at which the energy demand will be met by other sources. It will also make harder to reach areas economically viable for oil extraction.

Don't worry too much. We all must do more to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, but I don't sincerely believe that civilization will end. As a scientist, I can see a sinister motivation in some of these doomsday prophecies: Many of the scientists spouting off about this are dependent on funding of alternative fuel sources. These guys will ALWAYS inflate their claims to make funding seem more necessary.

[gold_bug]

107. refuting the Hubbert Peak crew

I've just started learning about the "peak oil" stuff, so I don't know which side has it right, the Hubbert's Peak ppl or the refuters. But if you want to read a piece which refutes the Peak Oil scare, here ya go:

The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources
by Michael Lynch (president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research)
direct link to a 380k PDF doc:
http://www.energyseer.com/NewPessimism.pdf

[Suspicious]

109. Thanks for the information.

I have been searching for information from anyone who had a counter argument. I will read through this carefully.

Do you, or does anyone, know what ties this group has? They are energy consultants. Agenda is everything, in my opinion, as far as credibility.

[thedude]

111. There is hope, although we must act now

While I, too, worry a great deal about the coming peak in oil production, being an engineer I still carry some hope that our scientific and engineering knowledge can, at least, lessen the blow of this crisis.

For example, someone mentioned that once oil is gone, that will be the end of plastics. That is not entirely true. There is a great deal of research going on in biopolymers.

<http://www.designinsite.dk/htmsider/md150.htm>

These may one day help to replace our dependence on petroleum-based plastics.

Another example might be to designing hydrogen electrolosis garages. Remember from your high school chemistry class that if you pass electricity through water, the water separates into hydrogen and oxygen. One possibilty for generating hydrogen for automotive use would be to build a garage with solar panels that generate electricty for the production of hydrogen. However, since this would essentially result in everyone having their own filling station, it would kill "big oil."

There are other examples of technologies that could save us, but the key is that we need to begin to develop them RIGHT NOW, and not waste hundered of billions or trillions of dollars on oil wars.

The entire budget for the National Science Foundation is around $5 billion. Imagine what could be possible if we spent the $87 billion for the war in Iraq last year on basic research.