How the Gay Marriage issue may work for Bush

[Fight_n_back]

I think it is fair to say that Karl Rove and George W Bush no more about electoral politics than I do so if I thouhgt of this then Im sure they did.

The Gay Marriage issue is not about energizing his base. It is not about increasing turnout. It is the opposite.

My points:

Bush has lost a good deal of his base and can't get it back.

Bush has lost the moderates he won in 2000 because he is obviuosly not a "compassionate conservative". (He actually is but few know where the term comes from so they were hoodwinked)

The White House underestimated the anger of the Democrats and could easily see that Dem turnout would be enormous.

This is their strategy as I see it...

Go negative on Kerry. This always drives down turnout, especially among "undecideds".

Go hard for the booger eating vote and the corporate criminal vote.

And now the genius move....

Use the Gay Marriage issue to LOWER DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT....

Locally Boxer has already waffled and pissed off the hardcore.

Kerry is starting to wobble and is throwing a wet blanket on the Dem anger and enthusiasm.

The polls will close in the coming weeks not because Bush gets more votes from undecideds but because Kerry will get fewer from Democrats.

I wish I was smart enough to figure out an antidote.

[arewethereyet]

1. thats an interesting theory

and I agree with portions of it. It certainly could feed apathy in the left. Damn shame Mass and SF opted to do this at this time. Muy bad for the Dems.

[mike1963]

2. Uh, Kerry is starting to 'wobble'?? He won 3 more primaries yesterday

...
:eyes:

I'm not a die-hard "JK only" supporter, but I'm damn sure ABB.

[Fight_n_back]

3. I meant wobble on the issue

They are working to paint him as a waffler and if he is not consistent in his message or if he equivocates then he plays into their hands.


This strategy would lead to a very weak lame duck Presidency and will be very bad for the nation.

[eaprez]

4. Sorry I dont Buy it....

.....America is a much different place than it was four years ago - I think people understand the importance of this election as evidenced by the turnouts for PRIMARIES. They ran out of ballots in Utah yesteray.

[lastknowngood]

5. Yea but they started with only the regular 50 democratics in

Idaho so they needed 2 extra. Get a clue it's a red state it doesn't matter.

[eaprez]

6. Get a clue?

...the turnouts have been record turnouts all over the country. Dems won't stay home because of "THE GAY ISSUE"...they'll turn out because of "THE JOBS ISSUE"

[Fight_n_back]

8. Why do you think so?

You are holding out on us.

Wisconsin was actually a lower turnout than expected.

Plus I address turnout in my hypothesis...in fact it is the point of the hypothesis. Wait till the Convention and see how weird it gets.

[eaprez]

9. Because

working families have more important things to worry about than what the gay community may or may not do. It will be up to whomever the eventual Dem nominee is to drive that point home.

[Fight_n_back]

7. Im open to debate

but it will take more than "I don't buy it" to get the ball rolling.

[fob]

10. This yahoo story would seem to dampen your theory

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&ncid=536&e=5&u=/ap...

Reuters

Tue, Feb 24, 2004
Survey: Anger Toward Bush Intensifying

Sun Feb 22, 3:29 PM ET

By NANCY BENAC, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - In Arizona, Judy Donovan says she feels desperate for a new president. In Tennessee, Robert Wilson says he finds the president revolting. In Washington state, Maria Yurasek says she'd vote for a dog if it could beat President Bush (news - web sites).

A subtext to this year's presidential campaign is the intense anger that many Democrats are directing toward Bush, an attitude that has been growing in recent months.

"I've never seen anything like it," says Ted Jelen, a political science professor at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. "There are people who just really, really hate this person."

Fully a quarter of Americans, mostly Democrats, tell pollsters they have a very unfavorable opinion of the president, more than double the number from last April. When only Democrats are polled, more than half report they feel that way.
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