FMA Senate Headcount Thread #2

[Ediacara]

The other threads were getting out of control, and I wanted to compile a listing of names I have gotten from both threads in the For, Against, and Undecided categories.

* Denotes a Senator that needs a formal confirmation but appears to be in the right list.

** Denotes a Senator that has made statements leaning him or her into a particular list, but also has wishy-washy if's, and's, or but's associated.

FOR
Allard (R-CO)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Cochran (R-MS)
Coleman (R-MN) **
Cornyn (R-TX)
Dole (R-NC)
Domenici (R-NM)
Ensign (R-NV)
Fitzgereld (R-IL)
Frist (R-TN)
Grassley (R-IA) **
Hatch (R-UT)
Hutchinson (R-TX)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Lott (R-MS)
McConnell (R-KY)
Miller (D-GA)
Nickles (R-OK) *
Roberts (R-KA) **
Santorum (R-PA)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL) *
Stevens (R-AK) *
Talent (R-MO)

Minimum for 19, possibly 25.

AGAINST
Alexander (R-TN)
Allen (R-VA) **
Baucus (D-MT) *
Bayh (D-IN)
Biden (D-DE)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Boxer (D-CA)
Breaux (D-LA)
Campbell (R-CO)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Carper (D-DE)
Chafee (R-RI)
Clinton (D-NY)
Collins (R-ME)
Conrad (D-ND)
Corzine (D-NJ
Daschel (D-SD)
Dodd (D-CT)
Durbin (D-IL)
Edwards (D-NC)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Feingold (D-WI)
Graham (D-FL)
Hagel (R-NE)
Harkin (D-IA)
Jeffords (I-VT)
Johnson (D-SD)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Kohl (D-WI)
Lautenburg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Lieberman (D-CT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Luger (R-IN)
McCain (R-AZ) *
Murkowski (R-AK)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-NE)
Pryor (D-AR)
Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Sarbanes (D-MD)
Schumer (D-NY)
Snowe (R-ME) **
Specter (R-PA)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Wyden (D-OR)

Minimum 44, possibly 48.

UNDECIDED
Akaka (D-HI)
Bennett (R-UT)
Burns (R-MT)
Byrd (D-WV)
Dayton (D-MN)
Dewine (R-OH)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Hollings (D-SC)
Inouye (D-HI)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Voinovich (R-OH)

So far 12 undecideds, 3 may lean for, 7 may lean against, and the other 2 are a toss up. There are still 15 Senators we have not heard from.

Please post any and all information on the remaining 16, and also try to get official comment on those that have stars by their name.

Thanks so far, Cantwell, Ensign, Grassley, and Snowe duly noted

[DaveOinSF]

1. Asterisk

Take the asterisk off Cantwell.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2001864689_bushgays25.html

I think double stars are needed next to McCain, Snowe, Lugar, Bayh, Baucus.

Where do you have statements from Specter and Sarbanes?

[Ediacara]

3. A am awaiting confirmation on Baucus

but I think he'll be a straight no vote. Specter and Sarbanes were burried in the forst two threads, so if it's NOT true, please let me know. McCain's statements seemed to lead towards a no vote rather than wishy-washiness; and Snowe, Lugar, and Bayh seemed to be pretty clear no votes, at least from what is reported in previous threads.

[DaveOinSF]

8. Senators

I agree that Baucus, McCain and Snowe are probably no votes, but Baucus and McCain's comments are not satisfactory to me. And Snowe's comment is also not clearcut.
http://snowe.senate.gov/pressap/record.cfm?id=218348



This is what was said on the other thread about Sarbanes/Mikulski:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&...

They have not decided



About Lugar/Bayh, the link that is given is far from clear. They express "hesitation" (http://www.indystar.com/articles/0/123851-3330-009.html )

However, the link from OxBlog shows Bayh is against, but qualified.
http://www.npr.org/rundowns/rundown.php?prgId=3&prgDate=25-Feb-2004


Finally, I haven't seen anything clear at all from Specter.

[Ediacara]

9. Duly noted

Will add ** to Snowe, I believe Luger and Bayh were both confirmed with constituant telephone calls but will double check. Sarbanes was IIRC confirmed by a constituant phone call and I'll double check him too.

[DaveOinSF]

11. Specter

"It is premature to consider a U.S. constitutional amendment," he said, "because the several states involved are dealing with the issue. Massachusetts is moving on a state constitutional amendment which would be much quicker than the action by Congress and 38 states... . California is also acting. If the states cannot preserve the traditions of marriage between a man and a woman, I would be prepared to consider a U.S. constitutional amendment."

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/news/nation/8041886.htm

At the very least, Specter deserves two stars.

[salin]

14. I thought their confirmation was from the Indy star article.

btw, where is Sen. Rockerfeller WVa?

[DaveOinSF]

2. Ensign

Is a clear "Yes"

http://ensign.senate.gov/news_office/Press_Releases/2004/022504_same_sex_marriage.htm

[SaveElmer]

4. I may be blind...but I don't see Warner (R-VA)

On the list...I don't think he has said one way or the other

[Ediacara]

6. There's nothing on his website

Although I doubt he'd be against the ammendment.

[SaveElmer]

7. Probably so...but

of the two Allen is far more idealogically right wing...Warner bucks the tide once in a while!!!

[saltpoint]

5. Thanks for posting this --

I read down the 'For' list and see (so far) only one Democrat, our lovely friend Zell Miller.

I wonder what he was offered to endorse Bush? An ambassadorship? A slice of the Iraq profit pie? The vice presidency?

Bad Zell.

[DaveOinSF]

10. Some "Yes" votes

Kit Bond (R-MO) (qualified, but sounds like a "yes")
(http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/News/F0FC53BB2419593386256E450015FCCD?OpenDocument&Headline=Bush+backs+marriage+amendment&highlight=2%2Cgay%2Cmarriage)

Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) (http://www.mdjonline.com/articles/2004/02/25/268/10135295.txt
)

Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
(http://www.islandpacket.com/news/local/story/3366802p-2996927c.html)

John Kyl (R-AZ)
(http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/dailystar/11367.html)

Gordon Smith (R-OR)
(http://news.statesmanjournal.com/article.cfm?i=75949)

[La_Serpiente]

12. I highly doubt my two Senators would endorse the amendment

both of them voted against DOMA. My Two Senators are Akaka and Inouye.

HOwever, this is just my opinion. They have not released anything from their offices yet on this matter.

[DaveOinSF]

13. Call them up

Ask them for their position.

Akaka [phone]
Inouye 808-541-2542

[Ediacara]

15. REVISED LIST

* Denotes a Senator that needs a formal confirmation but appears to be in the right list.

** Denotes a Senator that has made statements leaning him or her into a particular list, but also has wishy-washy if's, and's, or but's associated.

FOR
Allard (R-CO)
Bond (R-MO)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Chamblis (R-GA)
Cochran (R-MS)
Coleman (R-MN) **
Cornyn (R-TX)
Dole (R-NC)
Domenici (R-NM)
Ensign (R-NV)
Fitzgereld (R-IL)
Frist (R-TN)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA) **
Hatch (R-UT)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Lott (R-MS)
McConnell (R-KY)
Miller (D-GA)
Nickles (R-OK) *
Roberts (R-KA) **
Santorum (R-PA)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL) *
Smith (R-OR)
Stevens (R-AK) *
Talent (R-MO)

Minimum for 24, possibly 30.

AGAINST
Alexander (R-TN)
Allen (R-VA) **
Baucus (D-MT) *
Bayh (D-IN)
Biden (D-DE)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Boxer (D-CA)
Breaux (D-LA)
Campbell (R-CO)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Carper (D-DE)
Chafee (R-RI)
Clinton (D-NY)
Collins (R-ME)
Conrad (D-ND)
Corzine (D-NJ
Daschle (D-SD)
Dayton (D-MN)
Dodd (D-CT)
Durbin (D-IL)
Edwards (D-NC)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Feingold (D-WI)
Graham (D-FL)
Hagel (R-NE)
Harkin (D-IA)
Jeffords (I-VT)
Johnson (D-SD)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Kohl (D-WI)
Lautenburg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Lieberman (D-CT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Lugar (R-IN)
McCain (R-AZ) *
Murkowski (R-AK)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Nelson (D-NE)
Pryor (D-AR)
Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Sarbanes (D-MD)
Schumer (D-NY)
Snowe (R-ME) **
Specter (R-PA) **
Stabenow (D-MI)
Wyden (D-OR)

Minimum 45, possibly 50.

UNDECIDED
Akaka (D-HI)
Bennett (R-UT)
Burns (R-MT)
Byrd (D-WV)
Dewine (R-OH)
Gregg (R-NH)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Hollings (D-SC)
Inouye (D-HI)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Voinovich (R-OH)

So far 12 undecideds, 3 may lean for, 6 may lean against, and the other 3 are a toss up. There are still 8 Senators we have not heard from.

We need something from: Craig (R-ID), Crapo (R-ID), Enzi (R-WY), Levin (D-MI), Rockefeller (D-WV), Sununu (R-NH), Thomas (R-WY), and Warner (R-VA).

ON EDIT: I found who I was looking for. Damn John Warner, why did you run off?....

[DaveOinSF]

16. You are missing...

Warner (R-VA)

Check my post above for a link to Saxby Chambliss. He's in favor.

[Ediacara]

18. THANKS for both, will edit

[goobergunch]

17. At least 43 Against

is well enough to block an amendment.

[Ediacara]

19. DAMN RIGHT

If the undecideds and unknowns vote the way I suspect, we could get as many as sixty against! That Rocks!

[DaveOinSF]

25. Dayton (D-MN)

Oxblog has Dayton listed as a "no" based on constituent communication

[Ediacara]

27. sounds good!

[DaveOinSF]

20. Judd Gregg

Sen. Judd Gregg also said marriage “should be between a man and a woman.” He said he is “willing to take a further look at (an amendment), but feel that until a federal court rules in this area, it may be premature.”


http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showa.html?article=33748

I don't know, what does that make him? Undecided? Against with two stars?

[Ediacara]

21. uh... he'll move from unknown to undecided

[DaveOinSF]

23. Maybe

But that sounds almost like Snowe and Lugar...

[DaveOinSF]

22. Bill Nelson (D-FL)

From the other thread, someone called and Nelson is against.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=1163292&mesg_id=1167983&page=

[Ediacara]

24. SWEET

I suspected as much, but I hadn't found anything.

Thanks or all your help btw!

[DaveOinSF]

26. No problem

It's not like I'm at work or anything...

(...oh wait a minute...)

[Ediacara]

28. REVISED LIST #2

Only one change so far, moving Sessions from possible to definate yes. There are still 20 senators with unknown positions, so keep at those phone calls!

* Denotes a Senator that needs a formal confirmation but appears to be in the right list.

** Denotes a Senator that has made statements leaning him or her into a particular list, but also has wishy-washy if's, and's, or but's associated.

FOR
Allard (R-CO)
Bond (R-MO)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Chamblis (R-GA)
Cochran (R-MS)
Coleman (R-MN) **
Cornyn (R-TX)
Dole (R-NC)
Domenici (R-NM)
Ensign (R-NV)
Fitzgereld (R-IL)
Frist (R-TN)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA) **
Hatch (R-UT)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Lott (R-MS)
McConnell (R-KY)
Miller (D-GA)
Nickles (R-OK) *
Roberts (R-KA) **
Santorum (R-PA)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Smith (R-OR)
Stevens (R-AK) *
Talent (R-MO)

Minimum for 25, possibly 30.

AGAINST
Alexander (R-TN)
Allen (R-VA) **
Baucus (D-MT) *
Bayh (D-IN)
Biden (D-DE)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Boxer (D-CA)
Breaux (D-LA)
Campbell (R-CO)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Carper (D-DE)
Chafee (R-RI)
Clinton (D-NY)
Collins (R-ME)
Conrad (D-ND)
Corzine (D-NJ
Daschle (D-SD)
Dayton (D-MN)
Dodd (D-CT)
Durbin (D-IL)
Edwards (D-NC)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Feingold (D-WI)
Graham (D-FL)
Hagel (R-NE)
Harkin (D-IA)
Jeffords (I-VT)
Johnson (D-SD)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Kohl (D-WI)
Lautenburg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Lieberman (D-CT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Lugar (R-IN)
McCain (R-AZ) *
Murkowski (R-AK)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Nelson (D-NE)
Pryor (D-AR)
Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Sarbanes (D-MD)
Schumer (D-NY)
Snowe (R-ME) **
Specter (R-PA) **
Stabenow (D-MI)
Wyden (D-OR)

Minimum 45, possibly 50.

UNDECIDED
Akaka (D-HI)
Bennett (R-UT)
Burns (R-MT)
Byrd (D-WV)
Dewine (R-OH)
Gregg (R-NH)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Hollings (D-SC)
Inouye (D-HI)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Voinovich (R-OH)

So far 12 undecideds, 3 may lean for, 6 may lean against, and the other 3 are a toss up. There are still 8 Senators we have not heard from.

We need something from: Craig (R-ID), Crapo (R-ID), Enzi (R-WY), Levin (D-MI), Rockefeller (D-WV), Sununu (R-NH), Thomas (R-WY), and Warner (R-VA).

[nickinSTL]

29. MO

Well, I'm not surprised that Bond has joined Talent in support.

A bit off topic (but as I don't know if there's a headcount for the House) My rep, William Lacy Clay, 1st Congressional District, MO, from St. Louis has this to say:

'You can be assured that I do not support the Federal Marriage Amendment'

I received this statement in an email from Rep. Clay.

[Ediacara]

30. There is a thread compiled yesterday

that attempted to compile house members, but AFAIK it's burried in GD.

[MAlibdem]

31. By your numbers

An amendment could not pass...

[Ediacara]

32. These numbers are a compliation

from two threads yesterday. They are based on either constituent telephone calls, or press reports. The 45 or so Democrats and Republicans voting "no" looks to be pretty secure, and more than enough to kill the ammendment, and based on the voting record and leanings of the undecideds as well as the unknowns, it looks as though we could have as many as 60 "no" votes.