Which states should we concentrate on? Re: Gay Marriage Amendment

[Xithras]

OK, in order for this thing to become law, it has to pass the House and Senate with a 2/3'rds supermajority and then be approved by 38 state legislatures.

This means that, in order to defeat it, we simply have to get 13 states to reject it outright. So which 13 states should we concentrate on? Which 13 have legislators progressive enough to tell Bush where to shove it? Aside from the governors (who don't get a say), how liberal or conservative is the legislature in your home state, and do you think this amendment has any chance there?

I'd say that California, New York, and Mass. will obviously reject this thing, so we only need 10 more.

[Burma Jones]

1. I kind of Doubt it will get past congress

If it does:

Maryland, Vermont, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Delaware, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, West Virginia, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Arizona, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming.

I include states like AZ, NM, MT and WY because of their strong Libertarian streak and this sort of Constitutional Amendment does not sit well with Libertarians.

[ButterflyBlood]

4. South Dakota is in the process of banning abortion now

forget it.

New Mexico is often overlooked, it has a Dem legislature and is more liberal than most think.

[Ms. Toad]

9. Don't count on Ohio

It just passed the most restrictive DOMA legislation of any state, and amends its own consitution at the drop of a hat.

[pmbryant]

2. Work on the House and the Senate

We only needs 1/3 of one of these bodies to reject this bigoted amendment in order to defeat it outright.

If we let it get to the states, it may be very hard to stop. As then, it will only need simple majorities.

--Peter

[tedoll78]

3. I think..

that the Senate will be the deciding vote. That's the biggest hurdle (as far as I can tell). Getting 34 senators to say 'No' will be a close call, but I'm 65% sure it'll be blocked.

[yellowcanine]

10. It is not going to be close in the senate

the amendment may not even get a majority in favor - there is no sentiment for this. Bush either miscalculated or he knew this would happen and needed the bone for his base.

[Bucky]

5. Target: Florida

If you can kill it in Florida, it's dead. I think there'd be a good chance to kill it by referendum there, but obviously the Florida state lege is a much friendlier environment for this idiotic proposal. I think the people would oppose it as an amendment.

This is of course the exact opposite of what the founders expected and intended. They thought the people would be easily swayed to popular causes and the legislators would keep them from embracing reckless laws. Instead we will see an electorate with their heads screwed on straight (no pun intended) and the lawmakers (and one laymo federal executive) going bonkers for an ill conceived fad.

[Xithras]

6. Hey, I know it may not get past the Senate BUT...

Look, we need to cover all the bases. That means calling and sending letters to the legislators of those states that will be receptive...and doing so NOW. We need to make sure that politicians at ALL levels of the political process, both federal and state, know that they will be held accountable if this thing passes. They need to understand that the people KNOW what their responsibilities are, and that we EXPECT them to reject this thing.

If this thing passes, it won't be because Bush did it, it will be because hundreds of politicians across the nation voted to make it so. Bush doesn't get a vote, your local state rep WILL.

[Xithras]

7. kick!

Fell off a little quick :)

[Mattforclark]

8. Sorry

No can help in Texas.