Iraq casualties will not sink bush below 53% approval

[wuushew]

Based on the trend from 5/2-7/7/03 the daily number of military dead in Iraq will reach 7.022 per day by election day 2004. Using data on approval ratings during Korea and Vietnam the general model for those wars correlated with a 15 point drop in approval for a ten factor increase in casualties. Since the casualties in the above data is far below the 17.119 that represents a ten fold increase, Bush can expect a loss of some 6.19679 points. Placing his approval at 53.80 on election day. Additionally citing research originally done by the Rand institute in 1985 and updated since, the American public has never been truly been beholden to casualty aversion. Rather public support for any modern war is based on its percieved importance and nature of outcomes. A hypothetical Iraq war scenario involving the need to elimate WMD revealed that up to 30,000 military deaths would be tolerated by the public to achieve victory. Using occupation estimates from "mission accomplished" to election 2004 yields culmative fatality figures of up to 800 dead(apparently an acceptable level in the public eye).



The Casualty Myth

If the public is not casualty-averse, as the evidence suggests, the focus turns to the misinterpretation of this fact by our national security leadership. The TISS study provides strong evidence that policy makers and senior military leaders believe that the American public is casualty-averse and will not tolerate deaths except when vital interests are at stake. The study reached this conclusion by posing three plausible intervention scenarios (defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, preventing Iraq from acquiring weapons of mass destruction, and stabilizing a democratic government in the Congo) to senior military officers, influential civilian leaders, and the general public and by asking them to consider how many American deaths would be acceptable to complete each mission (table 2).

Table 2
Number of Deaths Acceptable

Mission

Military Elite Civilian Elite Mass Public

Congo 284/ 484/ 6,861
Iraq 6,016/ 19,045/ 29,853
Taiwan 17,425/ 17,554/ 20,172

Source: Peter D. Feaver and Christopher Gelpi, “A Look at Casualty Aversion: How Many Deaths Are Acceptable? A Surprising Answer,” Washington Post, 7 November 1999, B3.





Sources

http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj00/sum00/hyde.htm
http://www.antiwar.com/ewens/casualties.html

[Cha]

1. No,,,not with the repugs running the polling show....

[Maple]

2. Very neat, very precise

Utter hogwash.

Just like the reasons for the invasion.

[Rose Siding]

3. I guess we'll see

LBN story up- EIGHT more killed in RPG attack.

[ShaneGR]

4. 53% IS HORRIBLE for an incumbant

For an incumbant, that's absolutely terrible. Factor out the calls made to states like South Carolina, Mississippi or Wyoming and you've got a big fat LOSS in a reselection effort.

[jiacinto]

5. Not true

53% is an okay approval rating. If it falls below 50% then it becomes trouble.

[Nazgul35]

8. approval rating measures something completely different...

then would you vote for...where Bush is hanging on to a low 40s rating against no clear dem candidate....he's gonna need all the cash he can get his hands on...

[annagull]

6. Did you factor in the expose of Bush*s lies to the American people?

I think with the casulties as well as knowing they lied us into this war, hearings, more deaths, I think Americans will throw the bastard to the curb in large numbers.

[wuushew]

9. Well LBJ did plenty of good non-vietnam stuff and still suffered

Remember he is the president who gave us civil rights legislation and the great society and was still torpedoed by the war.

Shrub has done nothing good domestically and still pulls off a 60%+ rating??! The models studying Korea and Vietnam only correlate casaulites and job approval no other factors.

[corarose]

7. The polls are only taken in Republican areas didn't you know that?

I live in Chicago and I don't know anyone who has been polled. I talk to people in the grocery line when I shop and everywhere I go.
I have not ran into a Bush lover or anyone would comes close to liking him.
Have you ever asked yourself this question. I wonder what area of the country that poll was done in or Is the poll being taken in large cities.

The right wing scumbage know who to poll by donations to the rethuglican party. They call those lists and that's it.