What do you think Osama's current situation is?

[ironflange]

All these rumors these days. I'm getting a little tired of it. Myself, I think he's lying under tons and tons of boulders, never to be found. What's your spin?

[Norquist Nemesis]

1. Caught...waiting to be parade sooner

like around the anniversary of the Iraq invasion

[DuctapeFatwa]

2. when not resting in his suite at the Crawford ranch, Agent bin Laden (CIA

sabbatical) enjoys practicing his jump-shots, at which he is said to excel.

At the time of this writing, the agency has not yet finalized Agent bin Laden's next assignment.

[waterman]

3. Pacing, talking on his cell phone. Just like on his videos.

[Gildor Inglorion]

4. He's huddled in a cave

in the Himalayas of northern Pakistan, all 6'7" of him, freezing and starving, along with several wives, various children, numerous supporters, fanatical bodyguards, some physicians, and his portable dialysis machine. Clever, tricksy Osama! He'll probably elude his pursuers even longer than Rudolph, the mad bomber, did in the mountains of North Carolina. ;-)

[Name removed]

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[Tims]

6. Still at large

Though I can't say whether we know where he is, I feel he has probably not been captured and being held for a surprise announcement come October. I believe capturing or killing Osama presents a real risk of Al-Qaeda mounting a major retaliatory attack on the US. Even if we don't know if he has been captured, his followers would know. Unlike capturing Sadam, Osama has worldwide followers who would act quickly in response to his capture or death. An attack on the US or a permanent code red is not in the interest of the Republican party.

If he can remain at large and can be captured close enough to the election that the likelihood of retaliation occurring before election day can be minimized, then we may see the Osama capture operation intensify late in October, but he has to remain at large even if we know were he is.

It could be diffused somewhat by allowing the British to make the capture (there are hints that it is the British SAS who actually know were he is) and hope any retaliation will be against them and not us.

[BillZBubb]

7. They know approximately where he is

BushCo will actually use U.S. troops to try to catch him this time. The big push starts soon. Rove needs Osama before the Repug convention.