If peak oil is a reality, we really need to be making noise

[Sliverofhope]

There are a lot of issues that need a lot of attention, and fast. But if the worst estimates of peak oil is a reality, then in 10 to 20 years, we may be seeing the beginning of a process that will kill off billions of the world's population from famine.

Look at the website:

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Michael Moore has mentioned this in his chapter "Oil's Well that Ends Well" in Dude, Where's my Country? and Jimmy Carter has mentioned the threat of this as well. Even the Bush adminsitration acknowledges it in their energy task force.

So I'm having a little bit of a cognitive disconnect here.

If, within one generation, 5 or so billion people are going to die unless we do something, this seems to be a call to do something.

What the hell are we doing? What the hell do you do?

Raising awareness is the only thing I can think of. Making it an issue. People need to inform themselves about this, and quickly.

[slor]

1. Well, this is the worst possible...

administration to have in office with peak oil looming closer. Whomever wins the next presidency must act quickly to begin implementing all renewable sources of energy, including the strong emphasis on the manufacture of those materials that will be needed. They must also make it unpleasant, shall I say, to own gas hog vehicles like those insidious hummers, and mandate more efficiency and conservation across all walks of life. The fact is, it is probably much too late to prevent most of the damage we can expect, but getting ready for it is better than not!

[arcos]

2. I totally agree...

Although we are now too late, it is necessary to educate people. I have been aware of the problem for a few years now, but until a few weeks ago I hadn't actually "digested it".

We must act NOW. People need to be aware of this NOW.

A few interesting links...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x381132
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1134247

[Dogmudgeon]

3. Oh, it's worse than that

Check out this thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=5175

Combine an oil crash with a quick-onset ice age. That's the real concern now -- and the Pentagon seems to agree.

Yes, five billion people are going to die. Yes, we will sit on our collective hands and do nothing except to confine the agony. Indeed, we could work to make sure these events are minor bumps in the road of civilization, but I'm afraid we aren't that civilized.

We've been "raising awareness" since the late 1950s, when M. King Hubbert did his analyses of American crude oil production; the energy crises of the 70s increased it more; climatologists like Wallace Broecker have seen the ice age returning since around 1980. But we still mock people with epithets like "Gloom and Doom" and "Tree-Hugger" when they dare disturb the Chamber of Commerce. None of it has worked so far.

People will start to take action only when things start to get painful. I suspect it will take a super-blizzard and a million deaths to get America to take notice of climate change. Gas at $10 per gallon might also "help" with energy issues.

Left-wing survivalism is looking better and better.

--bkl

[Deja Q]

12. Ice age or global warming?

Or do they mean a mix of the two; instead of icebergs freezing us to death; melting icebregs drowning everyone within 40 days?

[mhr]

4. Peak Oil Links For The Curious And Concerned

Websites of interest include:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Home.html
http://globalpublicmedia.com/
http://www.oilcrash.com/
http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/
http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html
http://www.asponews.org
http://www.gulland.ca/depletion/depletion.htm
http://www.dieoff.org/
http://www.oilanalytics.org/
http://www.greatchange.org/
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
http://www.after-oil.co.uk/
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
http://hubbert.mines.edu
http://www.museletter.com/archive/cia-oil.html

Books:

Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil
by David Goodstein

The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies
by Richard Heinberg

Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage
by Kenneth S. Deffeyes

The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight : Waking Up to Personal and Global Transformation
by Thom Hartmann

The Oil Factor: How Oil Controls the Economy and Your Financial Future
by Stephen Leeb, Donna Leeb

News Groups:

Energy Resources
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/

Alas Babylon
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AlasBabylon/

Running on Empty
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/

[Indiana_Dem]

5. I couldn't agree with you more....

I've only started reading about it recently in the last few weeks too. It has changed my life and my way of thinking. It's almost all I can think about especially when I look at my children and their future, let alone mine. Peak oil should be at the front page of every paper and at the front of everyone's campaign. But it's not. Why not?

For starters, I think I'm going to write a public forum in my local paper, getting most of my information from here, from the links available. Then I think I'm going to try and go to some local meetings and get a feel for what's going on in my community energy-wise and become involved.

Then I think I'm going to go totally solar and electric as my home equipment breaks down (furnace is almost 30 years old). May not be the total answer but what other choices are there right now? Then I think when my lease runs out on my Jeep, I'm going to buy a Honda Prius hybrid.

I am very frightened by the things I'm seeing.

Our very life hinges on oil. I already see the oil and gas is high and rising. As I see it, we will be in war after war fighting for what's left of cheap oil unless we start working fast to create alternatives and conserve.

But I try to tell people around me and they don't take me seriously and they just go on their merry way thinking nothing can happen to them!!! What do you do??? It's crazy! What can we do? I feel like chicken little going around telling everyone and nobody listens seriously.

Why aren't the politicians screaming this from the top of their lungs!? And a lot of the DUers here don't even seem too concerned because all they want to talk about is Nader and how the race is coming along. Yes, I believe the race is the most important ever, but peak oil hinges on our existence. We're like the frog in the boiling pot heating up ever so slowly.

What is wrong with people? We could have tons of new jobs if we created new alternative energies. I'm totally at a loss and very depressed about it. Anybody else feel the same way?

[Sterling]

6. Kick

We are too busy running of Nader supporters to care about this kind of stuff?

[Indiana_Dem]

7. Well it seems that way....

I think it is so important. I am so worried about it! We need to do something NOW!:scared:

[arcos]

8. kick n/t

[meow mix]

9. Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields (nyt)

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/24/business/24OIL.html?pagewanted=1
(was on CNN headline news this morning too)

Saudi Arabia, the leading exporter for three decades, is not running out of oil. Industry officials are finding, however, that it is becoming more difficult or expensive to extract it. Today, the country produces about eight million barrels a day, roughly one-tenth of the world's needs. It is the top foreign supplier to the United States, the world's leading energy consumer.
***
The most significant is Ghawar. Discovered in 1948, the 300-mile-long sliver near the Persian Gulf is the world's largest oil field and accounts for more than half of the kingdom's production.
***
Ghawar is still far too productive to abandon. But because of increasing problems with managing the water, one Saudi oil executive said, "Ghawar is becoming very costly to maintain."
***
"The big risk in Saudi Arabia is that Ghawar's rate of decline increases to an alarming point," said Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior official with the National Iranian Oil Company. "That will set bells ringing all over the oil world because Ghawar underpins Saudi output and Saudi undergirds worldwide production."

[Minstrel Boy]

10. The "Olduvai Gorge" theory: industrial civilization can last only100 years

Quite simple: a technological civilization cannot outlast its energy resource base. Once this resource is spent, technological civilization will be forever beyond our grasp.

From "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge" by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D.:

Although all primary sources of energy are important, the Olduvai theory postulates that electricity is the quintessence of Industrial Civilization. World energy production per capita increased strongly from 1945 to its all-time peak in 1979. Then from 1979 to 1999 - for the first time in history - it decreased from 1979 to 1999 at a rate of 0.33%/year (the Olduvai 'slope', Figure 4). Next from 2000 to 2011, according to the Olduvai schema, world energy production per capita will decrease by about 0.70%/year (the 'slide'). Then around year 2012 there will be a rash of permanent electrical blackouts - worldwide. These blackouts, along with other factors, will cause energy production per capita by 2030 to fall to 3.32 b/year, the same value it had in 1930. The rate of decline from 2012 to 2030 is 5.44%/year (the Olduvai 'cliff'). Thus, by definition, the duration of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years.

The Olduvai 'slide' from 2001 to 2011 (Figure 4) may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness. As for the Olduvai 'cliff' from 2012 to 2030 - I know of no precedent in human history.

Governments have lost respect. World organizations are ineffective. Neo-tribalism is rampant. The population is over six billion and counting. Global warming and emerging viruses are headlines. The reliability of electric power networks is falling. And the instant the power goes out, you are back in the Dark Age.

In 1979 I concluded, "If God made the earth for human habitation, then He made it for the Stone Age mode of habitation." The Olduvai theory is thinkable.

http://www.oilcrisis.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm

Also see "The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age":

Back in 1989 I became deeply depressed when I concluded that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten and our most cherished monuments will crumble to dust. But more so, I knew that my children would feel the pressure, and will likely suffer. That really hurt.

In time however, my perspective changed. Now I just treat the Olduvai theory like any other scientific theory. Nothing personal. Each year, I gather the data. Update Figure 2. And watch the theory unfold. Let the chips fall. What else?

Still, the impending Post-Industrial Stone Age is a tragedy because it really isn't inevitable. There's no absolute reason why we couldn't live in material sufficiency on this planet for millions of years. But prudence isn't our forte. "Even our success becomes failure." And, in a way, it's not our fault. Long ago Natural Selection dealt us a bad hand—we're sexually prolific, tribal, short-term and self-centered. And after thousands of years of trying, Culture hasn't changed that. And there is no sign that She will.

Backward to the future. Forward to the past. Almost perfect symmetry.

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm



"There is enough energy remaining in the world right now for us -- the people -- to take control and ease ourselves into a democratic, egalitarian, stable-state society. Or there is enough energy for the elite to build a feudalistic, fascist, police state with themselves at the top. This is the choice facing us right now, and this is what is truly at stake." - Dale Allen Pfeiffer
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/080802_oil_empire.html

[John BigBootay]

11. I've looked at / read several of the mentioned PO sites and...

I have to say I am not convinced that there will be a mass extinction event based on the decline of oil production.

Granted I am an optimist, but I see it this way:

There will be a gradual fall off of production. Prices will rise as extraction becomes more difficult and demand increases.

This gradual rise in price will trigger new incentives to develop alternatives and to conserve in ways that are not seriously considered today.

The increase in price will affect the economy. All prices will go up. Some, mostly in 3rd world nations, will suffer because of this-- we may in fact see a global depression.

However, this is as far as I am willing to go with this scenario. By the time we hit global depression, I predict that we will have had at least twenty years of foreknowldge to prepare and alternative sources will be perfected and available.

Our nations, people and economies are more resiliant than these "doomsday" scenarios let on. The collective will of the American people (not to mention the rest of the world) is immense. When the writing is clearly on the wall, we WILL do what needs to be done.

Should we be preparing now for the end of oil? Absolutely-- but let's not try to confuse the end of oil with the end of days.

[meow mix]

13. i hope so too

"This gradual rise in price will trigger new incentives to develop alternatives"
that is often said...

but translates to me as:
"We will probally find a better way, once it becomes a matter of our survival"

ummmmm!?!
scary bet.
i do hope it works out that way though =)

[Minstrel Boy]

14. It'll take a massive investment of energy to pursue alternative energies

which can begin to replace petroleum. Energy which will be straining to meet the increasing demands of industrial civilization.

Some see natural gas as a transition fuel, but it's peaking in tandem with oil.

[arcos]

15. kick n/t