Why Osama Won't Matter

[revree]

It's the economy, stupid.

[aldian159]

1. its jobs, stupid

or, to be more precise, the utter lack of them.

[revree]

2. It's jobs, economy, no health care, stupid wars based on lies...

Geesh, we could go on and on, couldn't we??? LOL!

[Kazak]

3. I hope they do turn up Osama...

This situation reminds me of a local politics story I happen to know about, forgive if I get anything wrong as it's all second hand. The story is about a mayoral race in Laredo, TX in probably 1970's or so. The Democratic candidate was named Gonzales and the Republican candidate was Goode. Well, Goode decided to hold a fundraiser in which he would serve free beer and tamales to the locals in town. The Democrats panicked when all of their support was lured to the Republican fundraiser, so one of the more savvy Dems went to the fundraiser and began chanting, "We drink Goode's beer, we eat Goode's tamales, we go to the polls and we vote for Gonzales."

Gonzales won.

[Tims]

4. Unfortunately it will be a media circus

if he's captured or killed. People will be distracted much more than they were by Sadam's capture. Those who did view Sadam as a threat were satisfied simply that he was ousted, his capture was just an extra "goody", but no big deal. Most people were not afraid of Sadam, while most people still see Osama as a threat. If his capture happens close enough to the election, it can still be a major factor in Bush's favor.

The one thing that would totally diffuse any positive boost to Bush would be a retaliatory attack by Al-Qaeda in response to Osama's capture. This would make it clear that his capture had little effect on security and could cause Bush's temporary popularity to plumet. The possibility of this has to be significant and cannot be lost on the Republicans in charge. Catching Osama has to viewed as a significant risk. This is one reason I feel that he has not already been captured and simply being held to be brought out at the appropriate time. If he was captured, then his followers would know it and would have already mounted some kind of retaliation, or at least enough threats to move the country to code red.

Bush may feel the risk is worth it if the capture can be timed close enough to the election that a retaliation could not be successfully mounted until after election day.