27% of all IT jobs to be exported by 2007, just 5% today are gone!!

[RegenerationMan]

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/careers/articles/0,15114,588335,00.html?cnn=yes

-snip-

Think Globally, Save Your Job Locally
By Anne Fisher


We've all seen the bleak statistics: U.S. companies have sent well over a half-million tech jobs overseas in the past couple of years. What the numbers don't show is the bitter frustration of skilled and experienced techies whose livelihoods are vanishing—vividly expressed in hundreds of e-mails that followed a bit of advice to a college student signed Windy City (Jan. 12), who asked whether, in an increasingly global economy, it might not make sense to get some international work experience. I said it would, on the grounds that the global economy is not just a buzz phrase anymore. (Hmm, it seems all those consumer goods we've gotten so cheap for so long suddenly come with a downside. Who'd have guessed?)

If you think jobs are fleeing this country now, just wait awhile. So far, according to the best industry estimates, only about 5% of U.S. IT jobs have been shipped to India, New Zealand, and Eastern Europe. But by 2007 at least 23% will have gone. Not a techie? Don't get cocky. IT folks may just be the canary in the coal mine. Notes a reader named Hans: "There is almost no limit on the technology that can take jobs overseas. Anyone in any field who has ever thought, 'Gee, I could just as easily do this job from home,' or who has smiled at the thought of working from a laptop on a beach should understand that his or her replacement 'could just as easily do this job' from Bangalore." Gulp.

Which brings us to what Bill Mitchell, a Silicon Valley veteran who's now CEO of a software company called Firepad, wishes all of us (techies or not) would learn. It's the old Darwinian tune: Adapt or die. "The answer for programmers, as for anyone in a competitive business, is to specialize to the point that you offer greater productivity, or change careers," he says. "Years ago I did the latter. I bit the bullet and learned new skills and got out of programming, and now I'm the outsourcer rather than the outsourcee." Your mama must be proud, Bill, but not everyone can become an outsourcer.

The other option: Innovate. Don't expect that your long experience will save you (it won't)—and don't rely on Internet sites to find your next job (they won't). Mitchell has watched his friends' fortunes rise and fall—haven't we all?—and says this: "A 1988 MIT grad with more than a dozen issued patents and 15 years of experience at Oracle and Siebel hasn't worked in over two years." Sound familiar? But at the same time another friend—a 1989 Caltech grad with a security clearance, architect-level database expertise, and 13 years of experience—saw three (count 'em, three) different jobs shipped abroad, by three different employers, in five years. His response? He developed new programming methods, "which allowed him to write certain specialized applications about eight times faster than his typical Bangalore competitor," says Mitchell. "Now he has a cost advantage. But only in those narrow areas." And, alas, probably not for too long.

-snip-

[FloridaPat]

1. It's hard to believe with all the IT people out of work that only

2% of the jobs went overseas. Of course, they've brought a lot of Indians and others in to replace the people whose jobs are still here. I heard paralegals are going to start going. Telemarketers jobs are following IT workers. Lawyers could be up next. Now people are talking about doctor's jobs going - just fly the patient to the doctor. Air fares are getting cheaper, so in the long run it would be cheaper to just move the patient.

Great country we live in. Who in the world is going to be paying social security for the baby boomers? Who's going to be paying the taxes for road and schools and police?

[Taeger]

4. It's cheaper !!!!

It's cheaper to use a LOCAL physician who spends his money in the community. That in turn pays for med school for SOME OTHER kid who becomes a doctor in the community who takes the other doctors place when he retires.

So you see Simba, the great circle of life continues. When the hyenas come in and start changing everything, the circle is broken. Only the hyenas benefit.

However thought that "The Lion King" was anti-globalization cartoon propoganda!!!!

[brokensymmetry]

11. They won't.

Who in the world is going to be paying social security for the baby boomers?

No one. Social Security will be defaulted upon, either through inflation that reduces a $1,000 per month benefit to the cost of a burger without fries, or through simple refusal to pay anything.


Who's going to be paying the taxes for road and schools and police?


Again, no one. The public schools will decline, and likewise the public roads.

The police will be paid.

[w4rma]

12. Hmm, maybe the national debt should be defaulted on, instead. (n/t)

[brokensymmetry]

15. It probably will be.

Not just the bonds, but things like Social Security and pension insurance. :scared:

[Taeger]

2. Arnold philosophy

Which brings us to what Bill Mitchell, a Silicon Valley veteran who's now CEO of a software company called Firepad, wishes all of us (techies or not) would learn. It's the old Darwinian tune: Adapt or die. "The answer for programmers, as for anyone in a competitive business, is to specialize to the point that you offer greater productivity, or change careers," he says. "Years ago I did the latter. I bit the bullet and learned new skills and got out of programming, and now I'm the outsourcer rather than the outsourcee." Your mama must be proud, Bill, but not everyone can become an outsourcer.

So what your saying is, if you can't STOP the invaders who are raping and pillaging your nation, rape and pillage YOUR OWN nation. Nice reasoning!!!!!

Or, if you can't STOP the thieves, just BECOME a thief!!!!


The really BIG bitch is those of us who have been OUT of the field for a while. Getting BACK IN no longer seems to be an option.

The truth is that there are techies being layed off EVERY MONTH. Who are they going to hire??? The guy who has fresh skills, or one of us laying by the roadside????

BTW, I'd like to point out that SPECIALIZATION is counter-intuitive to Darwininian notions of evolution. Typically, specializers are the FIRST to be eliminated from the job market. Generalizers are the one's who survive different events.

Finally, let's look at this bit:
"A 1988 MIT grad with more than a dozen issued patents and 15 years of experience at Oracle and Siebel hasn't worked in over two years." Sound familiar? But at the same time another friend—a 1989 Caltech grad with a security clearance, architect-level database expertise, and 13 years of experience—saw three (count 'em, three) different jobs shipped abroad, by three different employers, in five years. His response? He developed new programming methods, "which allowed him to write certain specialized applications about eight times faster than his typical Bangalore competitor," says Mitchell. "Now he has a cost advantage. But only in those narrow areas." And, alas, probably not for too long.

What would you like to bet that someone in Bangalore can replicate his methodology. Isn't it just a matter of time???? The more specialized you become, the more vulnerable you are.

I have almost resigned myself to the truth that IT will be a specialized skill that only a few will be able to produce full time in future years. The self replicating nature of software makes production issues irrelevant. It can be smuggled across borders without ANY physical transportation.

I envision a future of software SPECIALIZERS, no software writers. I see a future of Open-Source once American programmers are fed up and decide to deep six their replacements in spite.

I see a world where software is NOT a specialization but rather a side-skill (as it was in the beginning) of gear heads employed in OTHER professsions who simply wish to automate what THEY are doing.

After all, their are LEGIONS of "product managers" and "market researchers" who add little to software beyond collecting checks. The "bigger" software becomes, the seamingly more "useless" it becomes. I look at the amazing work from open sourcers like Linus Torvalds and Ximian founder Miguel de Icaza to handle the great leaps that are filled in by us software mortals.

I wish I could code like these guys ... I simply can't. They're aren't many people who CAN. And once they do their work, there is no need for factory workers to "replicate" it. It is self replicating. So the only job left is "customizing" it, which is what these guys really intended in the first place.

Now that the Windows2000 code has been release, the cat is completely out of the bag. China will create it's own version of Windows. Linux coders will make better Win32 layers to emulate the beast. Microsoft will slowly become irrelevant and software will descent into a chaotic haze.

So here's to the COMPLETE destruction of the software biz!!!!! When it comes to sinking Bangalore's ship out of pure uncompensated spite ... I'll do my part!!!! :mad: :beer: :party: :mad: :puke:

[Jim__]

3. I believe it

I work for a software company and they've told us they won't be building any more development centers in the US.

What to do? I don't know. I believe that eventually enough people will understand what's going on so that we'll be able to elect political leaders who will protect American jobs. Economic theory might say that sending jobs overseas is good for the country; but I've never met an economist who knew his ass from a hole in the ground.

[brokensymmetry]

10. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[Taeger]

5. One more thing ...

Being a thieving rat-bastard sell out asshole will ALWAYS be profitable. No need to import THAT. Business schools pump out PLENTY of them every year.

Playing by the rules IS NOT the way to guaranteed prosperity. Beating the shit out of people who DO NOT play by the rules is the path to guaranteed prosperity.

Where is that Ken Lay fuck-hole anyway!!!!!

[Philosophy]

6. Feudalism

It's not just for the Dark Ages anymore.

In the future the USA will be run by a few rich CEO's of companies whose employees are all in foreign countries, living in gated communities protected by mercenary armies. The rest of us will be filthy, utterly destitute serfs - "service job" servants to our CEO lords and scavengers of their scraps.

I'm sharpening my pitchfork.

[anarchy1999]

7. Feudalism ...alias American Capitalism

Good resource I found a couple of years ago.


Reasons to Read the Book


Unless you are aware of just how and why the richest 1% in America are directly responsible for the nation's declining quality of life, ...you will probably benefit greatly from the facts and analytical perspectives offered in this book.


Some of the issues covered in the book are listed below:


why the number of American billionaires suddenly doubled in 1986, quadrupled by 1987, and by 1990 was nearly eight-fold!!...while at the same time, the number of soup kitchens and street beggars increased dramatically throughout the country

how and why the richest 1 (one ) percent have come to own more wealth than the combined wealth of the bottom 90 (ninety) percent

why the elected Congress continues to pass discriminating tax shelter laws that make the rich richer and the poor poorer

why and how voters have been left with less influence than lobbyists

why so many of America's politicians can openly break the law ...but remain virtually immune from prosecution

why Wall Street has been preoccupied with leveraged buyouts and mergers, and how they are fleecing the country

why the price of housing has increased to the extent that owning a home is no longer an expectation for many

why workers' wages are steadily dropping, and why America's manufacturing plants continue to close down

why the baby boomers may not have a pension when they retire

why the education system is graduating functional illiterates

why 200 American banks and 226 Savings and Loan thrift institutions (S&L's) failed in 1988 alone

why and how the media is being used to misinform the public

why the American government befriends so many dictators

why the American Dream of the 50's has turned into the American Nightmare of the 80's

why the defense budgets are so huge, ...but still get passed

why a Hollywood actor and a small-town peanut farmer were elected to the highest office

why America has sold military weapons to both Iran and Iraq

why the Allies have helped Israel to forcibly eject Palestinians from land that they (the Palestinians) had occupied for at least the past two thousand years

The items above are just a sample; there is much much more.

http://users.uniserve.com/~synergy/welcome.htm

Sadly enough this was published in 1990.

[RegenerationMan]

8. Thanks for the link!

We're going to party like it's 1399!

[Johnyawl]

9. No, we're gonna party like it's 1789

Anybody got the plans for a working Guillotine?

[number6]

16. thanx for the link

:kick:

[Woodstock]

17. Exactly, that's how I envision it, too

Too bad the morons who let it get to this point by backing the Bush Crime Family aren't the only ones who will suffer.

I say we separate from the south once and for all - we will keep the American dream going up north with President Gore, and stop fighting the south over their moronic behavior - leave them alone to turn themselves into slaves for Bush and his ilk.

[LincolnMcGrath]

13. When it was steel, they blamed

"stupid work rules and lazy Union guys."

They tried it again during the manufacturing hemorrhage, only to be reminded the few manufacturing jobs were actually Union.

Now the IT guys are not working fast enough for the ruling class.

Wake up fellow Americans!

[Woodstock]

18. I work with some who keep sending emails around

about jobs leaving to India and China. They NEVER blame Bush. Fox/Rush didn't tell them to, so they didn't.

[Deja Q]

14. American corporations are traitors to their fellow Americans

What more need be said?

Expect the US to intervene inthe Pakistan/India feud. Not because of altruism, but because of US interest in India. (as if the US has ever done ANYTHING out of altruism, and it hasn't...)