Nader Wins It For Dems

[devoedem]

A Nader candidacy could help the Democrats win in November. How is this possible?

To discern this requires us to recognize the differences between the current political context and that of 2000, and to look beneath the surface.

These are the key differences:

We had a good economy in 2000, stable international relations, an "incumbent" nominee who inherited a moderate New Democratic legacy of Bill Clinton, and a somnambulent electorate (not to be confused with "polarized" just because the vote was so close).

In 2004, we have a weak economy, unstable international relations, a right-wing reactionary pResident, and a potentially animated electorate (relatively speaking). And, of course, we have history, the memory of what happened in 2000.

I think the dynamic this time around will be that Nader must primarily (90%?) attack the extreme foreign and domestic policies of the incumbent Bush, the claim that there is little difference between Dems and Repubs won't have near the traction in 2004, obviously.

What we could have is 2(!!) national campaigns bent on bringing down Bush, and in the final analysis, there should be a net gain of votes for the Democratic nominee - this will not be a year for a "protest vote" and nothing to gain by improving the foothold of the Greens (because Nader is running as an Independent). The more attention the Nader campaign garners, the better; the Democratic nominee will look more moderate by comparison to swing voters. The additional voters energized by his campaign, regardless of preceding polls, come E-Day, 75% of them will probably go Democratic.

To fully leverage this potential "second front" provided by Nader, the Democratic nominee must position himself as an ally.

[mhr]

1. Agree Completely - Rove Will Have to Fight On Two Fronts

This will deflect heat from the democratic nominee and diffuse the republican attack machine.

[Ardee]

23. actually three fronts

The Green Party will choose its candidate in June, I believe.....

[shooga]

28. your all DEAD WRONG

ANY NON-BUSH VOTES THAT CREEP INTO NADER OR GREEN WILL DILUTE THE ABB MOVEMENT (ANYBODY BUT BUSH) ... HE THINKS WE ARE STUPID .... HIS CON IS TO BASH BUSH ... THINKING HE WILL GET SOME OF OUR VOTES ... IT'S A CON GAME.

HE WILL NOT PULL OVER ANY BUSH VOTES ... IF HE BASHES BUSH ... THEY WILL NOT VOTE FOR HIM .... BUT IF HE CONTINUES TO BASH BUSH, HE WILL PULL SOME DEM OR UNDECIDEDS.




http://www.explorenader04.org

http://www.ralphdontrun.net

[physaf]

46. Why do you think those who admire Nader would

instead vote for Kerry?

[shooga]

32. will also deflect VOTES

THINK !

[rock]

2. True. Nader is an alternative choice

Alternative to the incumbency (same as in 2000). Of course the effect is very small, but good for us.

[jfxgillis]

3. Interesting take and PLAUSIBLE, except ....

.... it works only if Nader captures actual votes only in states that are non-competitive.

If he's on the ballot in swing states, even if every dynamic you mention proves out, he could/would still tip Electoral Votes the other way.

Since the swing states are exactly the states where the GOP/right is most likely to assist Nader and also the states where the extra ABB effort you mentioned is most critical, I don't see how Nader is a net positive in the final analysis in the Electoral College.

And bottom line, that's what this election is about: Electoral votes.

[devoedem]

8. Thanks for your thoughtful reply..

I don't quite follow you, if "every dynamic you mention proves out" then my conclusion is the same, a net gain of votes - particularly in swing states where voters realize their individual say might determine the outcome. In what ways do you think the Bush campaign would attempt to assist Nader? MTP is still 15 minutes away where I live, Nevada (a swing state), do you think his remarks reinforce my arguments?

[jfxgillis]

15. Well, let me explain

This election isn't about NET negative votes, it's about net positive votes.

Splitting the ABB votes in a swing state even by 98-2 could tip Electoral votes the other way.

Again, your dynamic might work, but only if Nader ran a strong campaign that did not win votes for himself.

Obviously, state GOP organizations would try to help Nader collect signatures for an independent ballot slot.

[devoedem]

17. Net positive votes..

for Dem should occur due to increased participation (voter reg) and inroads with swing voters due to relative comparison, Nader to Dem. Thanks again for replying.

[Cooley Hurd]

4. I don't see him as a very effective spoiler this time around...

...because of the overwhelming "ABB" mentality of the electorate. There's no way anyone will give up their vote (by voting 3rd party in protest) so easily after seeing how close the 2000 election ultimately was.

However, as per his performance on Meet The Press this morning, his ferocity against Bush is unbridled. He can say things that Kerry can't say for fear of appearing too negative. He covered everything from impeachment of Bush for Iraq to criticizing Poppy for abandoning the Shiites and the Kurds when they tried to overthrow Saddam in 1991. As much as I think Nader is an egomaniacal boob, he is speaking the truth - very damaging truth!

[BigDaddyLove]

35. This is exactly what I've been thinking.........

I don't think we (ABB Democrats) have anything to worry about with regard to losing votes to him this time around.

I wholeheartedly welcome Nader into the race because he will give voice and passion to a lot of the stances that the mainstream candidates won't for fear of losing possible moderates....I think he's got an opportunity to take up where Dean left off and continue to attack Bush and all that he's done to destroy this country.

[Tennessee Gal]

5. You overlooked something!

The deep pockets of the Republicans who will push Nader in hopes he will take away Democratic votes. Just like they did last time!

[Jawja]

9. But Republicans

aren't going to give Nader money to bash *. If Nader attacks *, then how is he a threat to the Democrats?

[blondeatlast]

20. A quickie visit to FR is all the evidence necessary.

They are giddily dancing in the cyber aisles at his announcement; even offering to donate.

[blondeatlast]

21. Besides, he's attacking Dems, too.

He said on MTP that Gore would have put us into Iraq as surely as *it* did. He attacked the Dems directly in 2000, too.

And the Freeps are planning to donate.

He couldn't care less about defeating Bush. He used to be a leader, but his ego has long since eaten away at his sense. He can't see past hiomself--classic megalomaniac.

[FormerDittoHead]

14. Is there a place for Dem's to defeat Nader?

Hey, I would like to see more progressive thought discussed on the national front, BUT

Are there any "stop Nader before W gets reelected" groups yet? This is one thing I'd be willing to volunteer some time and money for.

Yo, Ralph - write another book, take interviews, expose corporate fraud and tax cheating, help create documentaries - how about a progressive magazine?

There are LOTS of things you can do which will actually CHANGE things.

IF WE LOSE AGAIN, which is what Nader will help do, the Republicans will only take that as a sign that the majority of people want THEIR pro-corporate politics to rule!

[Ardee]

24. Once upon a time

Please link to any site with factual evidence that Nader directly took money from republican sources......Its right next to the flat earth stuff and the green cheese moon evidence.

[physaf]

47. Those pockets will certainly come through for

Ralph again.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[opihimoimoi]

12. But Nader s attacks will make it easier for those Pubs who

are angry with Bush to vote for him, or sit it out.

Bush is at war in two Nations.

He will be at war with 2 opponents

Bush is toast.

[BigDaddyLove]

37. Exactly..........

How about a debate between Bush, Edwards/Kerry and Nader.

THAT would be worth the price of admission.

[Maeve]

10. I have wondered the same thing

It is possible that some "swing" Bush voters from 2000 might go to Nader rather than Bush this year.

It is also possible that we will see a "Perot II" run--with minimal impact as Nader is dismissed as unimportant. At this point, there's no way to tell.

[Orangepeel]

11. Nader might make our nominee LOOK more centrist

Hopefully, real progressives will vote Democratic because they realize it is the only way to stop the world from going completely to hell, and voters in the middle will be able to convince themselves that our nominee isn't "too" liberal because he is the option in the middle.

[Kitsune]

13. Does anyone remember Ralph's campaign last time 'round?

There WASN'T one.

He took out a few ads in newspapers that basically said that both parties were the same, and while he's not entirely wrong he did very little to back it up, and didn't really attack anything specific. It wasn't a very good campaign. Ralph relies on those sick of the two-party system to seek HIM out as opposed to actively courting them.

This coming from someone who supported him in 2000 (and would have voted for him, had I been four months older >_< ). Ralph, I liked you when you were speaking out and suing corporations in the name of consumers, but for god's sake back off.

[guajira]

16. Listening to Nader this AM made me think he could help Dems!

He really blasted B* - proposed impeachment! He flatly stated he supports gay marriges, had strategies for exit from Iraq and domestic jobs.

My first thought was - Dean is back! It's possible Nader will speak his mind, then end up supporting the Dem candidate. Who knows, he could even be angling for VP!!??

[blondeatlast]

19. He also said Gore would have got us into Iraq as well.

In this case, it's the messenger that's the problem, not the message.

[guajira]

25. And Nader reminded everyone that we are in Iraq for the oil

I've been wondering why no one is mentioning that anymore.

I also admire Nader for going to Cuba and speaking at the University of Havana. Doesn't mean I would vote for him - just glad to see someone with the cojones to speak up for issues I care about!!

[blondeatlast]

18. Do you honesly believe Rove gives a DAMN about Nader?

If anything, it is in Rove's interest to see that Nader gets more support...

For proof, visier FR. They are already pledging donations, fer Cthulu's sake.

[watercolors]

22. Nader is toast

I don't feel he is a threat! There is so much anger toward Bush that people will not fall into that trap. It might just take the Repugs who are unhappy and give them a place to vote. Also another voice bashing Bush is a help too.

[Ardee]

26. Of course he's a threat

but only to those so insecure or so committed to the right wing of the democratic party that they fear any and all criticisms. Nader spends most of his time blasting Bush, while he accurately faulted Gore and the democrats for their mistaken stances and missing passions some here simply cannot stand criticisms, however accurate and on target they might be...so sad, too bad.

[cryofan]

27. I really liked Nader on MTP. I may have to vote and work for him

even if it means Bush wins.

[welshTerrier2]

30. On Voting for Nader - One Word: Don't !!

If one aligns oneself with the left wing of the political spectrum, one would clearly see differences between Nader, Greens and Democrats ... and, speaking for myself, I find these differences very appealing ...

The most significant difference, and Nader must have used the theme a dozen times on MTP, is that those with views outside the two party system recognize that our democracy has been stolen from us by powerful corporations and very wealthy individuals who wield a perverse influence over most of our "representatives" ...

It is without question, disturbing, that democrats, while not nearly as bad as republicans, consistently align themselves with the status quo ...

HOWEVER, having said that, there is no way in hell I will either work for or vote for Nader ... NO WAY !!!

and why is this ?? because all but the blind can see that our current situation is different ... all but the blind understand that our republic is in jeopardy from bush's extremism ... and it's not just bush's extremism but the total capture of all branches of our government by bush and his minions ... surely you understand that the democrats, who don't go nearly far enough, have done all they could to block both Pickering and Pryor ... you must acknowledge that there are huge differences between democrats and the bush empire ...

this is not an endorsement of democratic middle-of-the-road policies ... we need to work harder and take control of the democratic party ... under certain circumstances, voting for a third party candidate might even be a viable option ... but not with the nation and so many lives hanging in the balance ... if you haven't been real fond of the wonderful america bush has brought us, imagine what he'll do knowing he wouldn't have to stand for election ever again ...

you have to know when and how to pick your battles ... your alignment with Nader's anti-corporate message is dead on the money ... but as many others have already said, this is not the right year ... we need to be patient and build our movement ... I appreciate your eagerness to take the fight to both parties ... so do I ... but too much will be lost, or at least put at risk, if we support Nader now ...

[LeahMira]

44. Picking battles...

you have to know when and how to pick your battles ... your alignment with Nader's anti-corporate message is dead on the money ... but as many others have already said, this is not the right year ... we need to be patient and build our movement ... I appreciate your eagerness to take the fight to both parties ... so do I ... but too much will be lost, or at least put at risk, if we support Nader now ...

I agree that any third party needs to have strong local bases.

That said, in states that are strong Democratic ones, where a Democratic win is in the bag, why not vote for Nader?

I also think that "baby steps" are not the way to go. Once legislators have considered a controversial issue and voted a compromise measure of some sort, they are reluctant to revisit that issue soon again. The corporations have been "baby stepping" us all to death, figuring ways around the mild legislation that we have to regulate them. There has to be a bottom line to what we will put up with. Why not just say what we want and refuse to back down?

[BillZBubb]

42. And that's exacly why Nader is going to hurt the Democrats

I really liked Nader on MTP. I may have to vote and work for him even if it means Bush wins.
Posted by cryofan

Sad. Incredibly sad.

[Punkingal]

29. I just finished watching MTP...

and I saw a different Nader than in 2000. He was more careful in his criticisma of Dems, I thought. And the line about Bush being a corporation posing as a person, (paraphrasing), was just killer. And to have him talking about being guilty of the most serious high crimes and misdemeanors imaginable - I just can't see how he will hurt anyone but Bush in the long run. (Although saying Gore would have invaded Iraq is BS..that one made me mad.)

[TheBlob]

31. What are you talking about?

That was perhaps Nader's most overused line (outside of 'No Difference') during the entire 2000 campaign.

"And the line about Bush being a corporation posing as a person, (paraphrasing), was just killer"

[Punkingal]

34. Sorry,,,

I had never heard that line before...I still think it's killer, because he said it about Bush.

[VOX]

33. Sorry, but Nader will *not* be siphoning off any GOP votes...

Individuals most likely to vote for Nader are not in the GOP demographics; they are disaffected Democrats and independents who most likely would never vote for a GOP candidate.

Therefore, Nader stands to hurt the Democratic candidate at the polls.

[daveskilt]

39. what - no Repub nader voters????

surely some of those guys in favor of strip mining the alaskan wildlife preserves would identify with nader

[daveskilt]

36. Huzzah for Nader!!

1. Huzzah for democracy - 2 parties only was always a bad idea. (see simpsons episode with kang and kronos posing as bob dole and bill clinton)

2. He can be the attack dog. He can say anything about Bush knowing that it isnt going to alter his chances of actually winning.

3. The repubs are going to have to deal with him on some level.

4. In swing states anyone informed enough to vote for Nader is informed enough to know that in their state they need to beat bush and vote dem this time (I'm assuming that nader voters would want rid of bush as much if not more than dems)

5. Nader brings people out to the polls who may not have voted (again huzzah for democracy) he gets people interested in issues that they care about that are often neglected - many of those people will hear his message and think - hey this bush guy really is awful on issues I care about, I will show up and vote this time (maybe for nader maybe for the dem, but not bush) or some who would have voted bush will hear Nader and decide not to.

6. Will he pull some dem voters? yes probably. but after 2000 I find it unlikely that florida or NH voters will risk it - states like Utah which will vote republican no matter what (I wonder what would happen if Hilary Clinton ran for president as a republican. I think many scannersesque head explosions in Utah would result. they would have no idea what to do ) - sure go vote Nader.

7. He can help keep the democratic party honest and not bush lite. He pulls support if the dems dont stay in touch with the left base.

[Punkingal]

43. Nader as "Advocate for Change?"

To position himself as the authentic advocate for change, Nader MUST focus almost exclusively on the incumbent president, as I indicated in my original post. After all, Bush's party also happens to control both houses of Congress, who are relentlessly advancing his agenda. He has presided over an acceleration of trends across the full issue spectrum which Nader has always resisted, issue by issue.

It seems you are in general agreement with my reasoning, but as to point #7, let me say this: the Dem nominee should not contest Nader when his opinions diverge from the nominee's position. Rather, he should say, "You're right." (And I'm glad you're here to deepen the discussion on such critical matters). Then, continue to advance and articulate the Democratic message and positions - don't give Nader (or Nader supporters) reason to focus on the Democratic nominee. Unless provoked, Nader will be on auto pilot condemning Bush.

[TankLV]

38. Remember Nader!

Kinda like "Remember the Maine!"

or

"Remember Pearl Harbor!"

It can be our rallying cry.

REMEMBER NADER!
VOTE DEMOCRATIC!

[rpf113]

40. Fanciful thinking,

but Nader will spend his time attacking the Democratic Nominee just like he did in 2000. Plus I haven't heard very much criticism of the Bush Administration from him lately.

[Zero Gravitas]

41. Nader the Enabler

Nader can't win, he can't take votes from Bush*. HE is an ego candidate. The only place he can fish for votes is from the Left of the Democratic party. His strategy therefore will be to bash Kerry (or whoever the Candidate is) he's too moderate, he took too much money from "special interests" etc. etc.

I would hope that most of Nader's voters in 1996 & 2000 will have learned their lesson and hold their noses and vote for the Dem in 04. Unfortunately there will be still some sanctimonious pricks who will vote for Nader the Bush Enabler anyway. I just hope that this time it is not as close as the last time.

[Cleita]

45. Frankly, Scarlett, I don't give a damn.

If I've learned anything in the politics of the last four year is that our system is as corrupt and dangerous as I always had a sneaking suspicion that it was.

Hey Ralphy go break a leg, preferably a right wing one.

[rman]

48. I don't see how Nader would cause repubs to vote dem

that'd be the only way he'd help dems.
(given that there will not be a majority vote for Nader)

So how is it again that you think Nader will help dems?

[Tank in Texas]

49. Nader will...

... have absolutely no impace on the race this year. Period.