I hope Osama is captured soon to prevent * from getting a good bounce

[mot78]

If Bin Laden is captured now, and not in September or October * won't have a bounce come election day.

[still_one]

1. A UK paper claims they have located him...

Bin Laden 'surrounded'

February 22, 2004
A BRITISH Sunday newspaper is claiming Osama bin Laden has been found and is surrounded by US special forces in an area of land bordering north-west Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Sunday Express, known for its sometimes colourful scoops, claims the al-Qaeda leader has been "sighted" for the first time since 2001 and is being monitored by satellite.

The paper claims he is in a mountainous area to the north of the Pakistani city of Quetta. The region is said to be peopled with bin Laden supporters and the terrorist leader is estimated to also have 50 of his fanatical bodyguards with him.

The claim is attributed to "a well-placed intelligence source" in Washington, who is quoted as saying: "He (bin Laden) is boxed in."

The paper says the hostile terrain makes an all-out conventional military assault impossible. The plan to capture him would depend on a "grab-him-and-go" style operation.

"US helicopters already sited on the Afghanistan border will swoop in to extricate him," the newspaper says. It claims bin Laden and his men "sleep in caves or out in the open. The area is swept by fierce snow storms howling down from the 10,000ft-high mountain peaks. Donkeys are the only transport."

The special forces are "absolutely confident" there is no escape for bin Laden, and are awaiting the order to go in and get him.

"The timing of that order will ultimately depend on President Bush," the paper says. "Capturing bin Laden will certainly be a huge help for him as he gets ready for the election."

The article says bin Laden's movements are monitored by a National Security Agency satellite.

On Thursday last week, General Richard Myers, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, said America had been engaged in "intense" efforts to capture bin Laden, who was believed to be hiding in the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

But he insisted that the focus of the search had not narrowed for months.


The Sunday Telegraph

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. I've said all along that since the rumor seems to be that OBL

is the October surprise, that reporters should be investigating the possibility that he is either "boxed in" or in custody. If there is any more verification or evidence of this, it should be widely publicized, and the shrub administration will be forced to make it a "March" surprise otherwise explain why they delayed the capture. This wouldn't prevent him getting a bounce, but it should be much more manageable early in the campaign.

If there was any evidence that shrub was delaying the capture for political timing, the damage that this revelation would have would probably more than outweigh the bounce from the capture.

[maggrwaggr]

4. looks like that's what's gonna happen

they've realized everyone will smell a rat if they make it an October surprise, so they're gonna pull him out of the magic box in a week or so.

Hmm, what are they covering up by this?

Could it be:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=377624#377694

[JailForBush]

3. I think Osama bin Laden would be of the most value if he remained free,

taunting Bush from his mountain stronghold, more popular in many countries than Bush is in the U.S.

[radwriter0555]

5. bin laden has been dead since december of 2001. I beg anyone to provide

any iota of proof otherwise.

There isn't a single photo, siting, appearance, interview, speech, letter -- ANYTHING that would suggest he's alive.

[CastorTroy]

6. that hardly matters

i don't think it would be too hard to convince the average idiot wingnut. Have a furious firefight and a lot of press confrences with lots of coverage and some ambiguous forensics.

To me, the best way to play this is to congratulate the military and remind the American voters that this is one of the few promises that Bush has actually kept, although very much later. Also, it wouldn't hurt to continue to insinuate that Bush dragged his feet for political reasons.