New Canadian poll: Libs 36%, Cons 28%, NDP 21%, BQ 13%

[Minstrel Boy]

Decided voters:
Liberals: 36%
Conservatives: 28%
NDP: 21%
BQ: 13%
other: 2%

This poll was being talked up on Newsworld today. No regional breakdown unfortunately, but we can make a couple of assumptions. The BQ at 13% would mean the Liberals would be hurt badly in Quebec. And since the Conservative vote is so dominant in Alberta, outside the province the Conservatives must be much closer to the NDP number.

21% means breaking an important psychological barrier for the federal NDP. Historic high is 20%.

http://www.praxicus.com/Sponsorshipscandal.htm

[onebigbadwulf]

1. I wonder what the stats are for America

[TrogL]

2. People are upset about the advertising scandal

Some hands will get slapped and it will hopefully blow over.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

3. Holy Shit! NDP over 20% and the Bloc at 13%

and I thought we wouldn't profit from this. Strange days ahead. All bets are seriously off.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

4. Simple math suggests that the Bloc is at about 50-55% in Quebec

That's landslide territory.

[HEyHEY]

5. Man you should see the crazy letter we got today

Some guy sent a letter that was all Western Separatist ranting and raving.

Entertain as it was....yikes!

[Screaming Lord Byron]

10. We're going to see a lot of that over the next few months, I'm afraid

It's the usual redneck bullshit.

[Minstrel Boy]

12. It'll be interesting - well, maybe scary - to see the reaction in the West

should Belinda Stronach win the Conservative leadership. There will be a lot of we gave up Reform and the Alliance, for this?!? I would expect a revival for the separtist Western Canada Concept.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

14. If Stronach or Clement wins it gives us a great argument.

'So, you were in the PC's. That didn't work out for you, so you formed the Reform Party. That didn't work out for you, so you formed the PC's again. Why not vote for real change?'
When Western Reformers realise they've wasted sixteen years of their political lives, they'll be absolutely furious.
I for one will laugh.

[KamaAina]

6. Any chance the NDP could make up that 7% gap

and become the official opposition??!!

Ah, but then you'd have to endure the envious stares of millions of us across the border in Bush*land... or is that "the Bush*"?

[Minstrel Boy]

8. The way the support is distributed, the NDP could win more seats

than the Conservatives while taking a smaller percentage of the vote.

It happened in 1993, 1997 and 2000, with the NDP winning more seats than the Progressive Conservatives, though taking a smaller percentage of the vote. (And much smaller: NDP support really bottomed out in 1990s.) That was, of course, when the conservative vote was split between the PCs and the Canadian Alliance. Now they've united, but interestingly, are polling below the combined totals of the former PC and Alliance parties.

The NDP forming official opposition is definitely a possibility. But if the Bloc Quebecois is this strong in the election, the BQ would contend for official opposition, too.

[_Jumper_]

7. Conservatives only 8% behind?

Why have they gained ground recently? Has the new party enjoyed a honeymoon period?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

9. No. The Liberals have gone a scandal too far.

This is an eleven-year old regime that has been hit by its fair share of scandals. Eventually people tire of the scandals and ditch the government. This may be the end for this Liberal administration, or it may not. That question can't be answered for a few months.
If you want my opinion, this is a seismic re-alignment in Canadian Politics that is not yet over. It is impossible to tell what will exist when the dust settles.

[_Jumper_]

15. Paul Martin

Has he been involved in any of the scandals?

[Minstrel Boy]

20. That's the question.

He says no, and he'll resign if it's found he's lying. But he was Finance Minister and senior Member from Quebec at the time.

The animosity between the Chretien and the Martin camps is such that I can believe he was kept out of the loop. But his defence is embarassing. That he didn't know is virtually a scandal itself.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

22. It doesn't matter. The argument then becomes

Either you knew, you didn't know, or were kept from knowing. If you knew, you're a liar. If you didn't know, you're incompetent, if you were kept from knowing, how can a party so divided as to hide information from its own members govern a country?

[Minstrel Boy]

11. The Conservatives also benefit now because they are leaderless.

March 20 they choose one of three contenders, and whomever it is is likely to alienate a good chunk of their potential voters. Right now, without a leader or even a coherent platform, they can vent "outrage" at the Liberals without presenting an alternative.

[_Jumper_]

16. Good point

n/t

[ironflange]

18. Stronach may have a chance

She's buying up delegates left and right, Harper's riding (where I live) may not even support him. If she wins, it's going to be hilarious, she doesn't even have Schwartzenegger's leadership skills. On top of that, all the Reform good-ol'-boys are going to be crawling out of the woodwork, and if Martin waits a while to drop the writ, there will probably be a new Western protest party springing up. This could get really interesting.

[Minstrel Boy]

21. I heard a Martin aide say the Liberals expect Stronach to win.

Dunno if that was disinformation or not. She does seem to be the one most Libs and NDPers are cheering for. (I know I am!)

Stronach did win a surprising endorsement this week in Harper's own backyard. Calgary firefighers are backing her.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

23. I hope to see her win. It is a strong possibility.

And it will be the end of the reform movement. The West may be more fertile ground for other parties then.

[stevedeshazer]

13. Good to see the surge in NDP support n/t

[Lisa]

17. interesting ... I'm hoping to hear Jack Layton speak on Saturday ...

He's going to be super-energized by these poll results, that's for sure!

[RBHam]

19. The NDP holds the balance of power

They can force the Liberals back to the left.
Good news.