What are the predictions for this year's Congressional elections?

[anti-NAFTA]

I haven't been following them at all. Are we going to pick up some seats, regain one or both houses, or lose more? How many Republican incumbents are facing an election? How many Democratic?

[alexwcovington]

1. Not looking fantastic.

http://www.prospect.org/print/V15/2/kuttner-r.html

[dorktv]

2. I am going to win with a giant landslide that will be the talk of the

nation. And not just on NPR. ;) Actually I know that my district is going to be very interesting with Hayworth being challenged by a liberal republican.

[Bandit]

3. Eight months can be a lifetime in politics but if things keep going like

Most Decent Republicans are going to sit this one out and not bother to vote. They won't ever vote Democratic but can't stand the thought of voting for Bush* again so the odds are not bad we may pick up some seats. We only need twelve now to regain control.

[NewJerseyDem]

4. It doesn't look very good

In the Senate, 19 democrats are up and 5 are retiring in the South (GA, NC, SC, FL, LA). 15 republicans are up and 2 are retiring in Illinois and Oklahoma.

We should pick up Illinois and democrat Brad Carson is leading in Oklahoma. He is fairly conservative but I'll take any democrat from Oklahoma. We have a shot in Alaska where Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed by her father, is very vulnerable. Democratic former Gov. Tony Knowles is running and narrowly leads in the polls. We might win in Pennsylvania if Arlen Specter loses the primary to right-wing nut Pat Toomey. If not, we won't win. We have long shot oppurtunties in Missouri (Kit Bond has never got more than 53%), Kentucky (Bunning only won by a few thousand in 1998) and Colorado (tuncoat Ben Campbell could be vulnerable but major democrats aren't running).

Republican will almost certainly pick up Georgia. We're losing Zell Miller so I don't care very much. South Carolina has a rough republican primary to face a strong democrat Inez Tenenbaum. Still, the republicans are probably favored her. NC has republican congressman Burr against 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles. This seat should be very close. Florida has two big primaries and will probably be close. Louisiana has a strong democrat in congressman Chris John and probably a weaker one in treasurer John Kennedy. They will face republican congressman David Vitter who is also a strong candidate. Tom Daschle is also very vulnerable in South Dakota and is narrowly leading ex-congressman John Thune. Patty Murray may be vulnerable in Washington but she should win.

The House is so badly gerrymandered that it is hard to win. Texas redistricting will cause us to lose a few seats and up to 6. However, we do have some oppurtunities. I think that without texas redistricting we would have had a chance of winning back control but we still can pick up a few seats.

The good news is that we picked up KY-6 today in a special election and will almost certainly pick up SD-AL in June. We only have about 11 more seats to go.