Unemployment rate.

[TNDemo]

I just saw a quick blurb on one of the cable news networks (not sure which one) that said the unemployment rate is expected to jump from 5.6 to 7.9. Does anyone know when that is expected. This month?? They said something about 5 million who have given up on looking for jobs. Did anyone hear this and get the right figures?

[LeftCoast]

1. I didn't hear that!

One thing to keep in mind about US unemployment #'s is that they only count people who are claiming unemployment. When the benefits run out and you're not counted as unemployed. If the numbers are expected to jump that would imply a sudden surge in lay-offs is coming.

[BR_Parkway]

2. Don't forget that the National Guard called to duty

have created openings (temporary only) that are presumably being filled by people who are no longer claiming for unemployment. What happens when we eventually pull these "civilian soldiers" back from the war and they get to take their jobs back? How many guardsmen and reservists have been called into active duty? Add that many more to the ranks of the unemployed!

[YNGW]

3. Just Wondering

>What happens when we eventually pull these "civilian soldiers" back from the war and they get to take their jobs back?

What happened in the years following the first Gulf War? Did they go unemployed, or did the increased demand for goods and services from these people create a need for supply?

[lovedems]

4. It is almost daily that I see a post on DU of another company laying

off employees. It seems like it is anywhere between a couple hundred to a couple thousand.

With the job creation numbers each month, I kept wondering when this gap would catch up with the numbers. It seems that more and more people are getting laid off than jobs are being created. AND, the the types of jobs that are disappearing are totally different than the types of jobs being created.

[davekriss]

5. Not True

>>One thing to keep in mind about US unemployment #'s is that they only count people who are claiming unemployment. When the benefits run out and you're not counted as unemployed.<<

Not true. The unemployment numbers widely published by the media are based on the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a poll, conducted weekly, that draws an (allegedly) statistically valid picture of household employment. I believe they try to sample 55,000 households a week. Whether or not one is collecting unemployment insurance has absolutely no bearing on the unemployment stats (this is an urban legend that just won't die!).

The CPS unemployment rate equals unemployed workers divided by the sum of employed plus unemployed workers. By definition, "unemployed" means not working but actively looking for work in the 4 weeks leading up to the sample date. It excludes "frustrated" workers, people who want a job but, after months of trying, give up looking. Thus, in bad times (such as now), the unemployment rate understates the reality as many will have given up the search in lieu of better times. It also does not adjust for "survive the now" jobs (underemployment -- e.g., a former highly trained IT worker, laid off, who can't find a replacement job, but instead works part-time bagging groceries to make ends meet). So the unemployment rate is at best a blunt instrument when it comes to measuring true economic stress.

(On the flip side, when economic expectations rise, more discouraged workers resume seeking work and the unemployment rate can rise even while the labor market is adding jobs.)

[LeftCoast]

7. Thanks for the clarification

[2004Donkeys]

6. If it does (although I don't see that high of a spike) it would be b/c ...

of Peak Oil.