Will (Cdn PM) Paul Martin postpone the General Election?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

In the light of the Groupaction affair, there has been much debate in the press over whether the PM will postpone the expected May 10th Federal Election to June or the fall. However, I feel there are very good reasons for Martin to call it in May.

The Conservative Leadership Race. The #1 factor. The Tories pick their leader in March. That would give them six weeks before the expected election. That's a huge disadvantage for the Tories.

Three Outstanding By-Elections. If Martin does not go to the polls by May 10th, he must call a by-election for Ottawa Central. I am convinced that Ed Broadbent would win that by-election, thus boosting NDP fortunes right before an election and introducing a formidable opponent into the house.

The rise of the NDP. The two most recent polls have placed the NDP at 18% and 19% respectively. This is representative of a slow upwards trend that has been continuing for the last year. If Martin postpones the election, he runs the risk of a minority government, should the NDP continue to grow.

Back Me or Sack Me. Martin may take the considerable risk of calling a snap election on the very issue that is dogging the party right now. If he leaves the controversy to percolate and develop, public opinion may harden by the fall.

The Chretienite reaction to Groupaction. Clearly there is a conflict brewing in the Liberal Party between two mutually exclusive camps representing Paul Martin and Jean Chretien. Martin's camp is determined to pin responsibility for the debacle on the Chretien camp. The Chretien camp will retaliate with damaging leaks and counterattacks. If Martin calls an election, the Chretien camp must at least appear to show loyalty to the party leader during the election. Should Martin be successful at the election, he would solidify his position as leader.

What do you lot think?

[OhioStateProgressive]

1. I don't understand how postponing elections can be an acceptable idea

I admire Canada so much for what they do that is right and fair...but I don't understand how a nation can postpone elections, it seems such a breach of Democracy.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. It's a matter for some debate. Due to a parliamentary system

fixed terms don't really work. Theoretically, a Parliamentary Administration can lose a vote of confidence and fall at any time, at which of course, an election is due. What should happen perhaps, is that there is a convention to hold an election every four years, say on May Day, or some other appropriate date, but should a government fall between dates, then naturally that date is changed.
We should of course, remove the ability of a PM to decide an election date, but the complex nature of parliamentary democracy makes that logistically difficult.

[OhioStateProgressive]

5. I guess

I just feel a Parliamentary System is a clusterfuck...It seems to work pretty well for Canada...it sounds like I am insulting it, and I suppose I am, but I don't mean to be rotten about it. I just wouldn't feel like I had any say in my government if I were in a Parliamentary System.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

6. No. I also think our system needs reform.

I myself favour some variation on Proportional Representation with perhaps the Single Transferable Vote or the Additional Member System. I want to have fixed election dates, but I'm not sure how to square that with a parliamentary system.

[OhioStateProgressive]

7. proportional representation

I like the idea, as long as it could be limited to say, 4 parties.

But I like the idea of voting for "people" and not "party", so I think I more favor just a multiparty system.

[Flightful]

13. Great way to shut out the grass roots

Think the party whips have too much power now? Just wait until they can drop mavericks to the bottom of the party list. Proportional representation only concentrates power in the hands of the party exec at the expense of voters.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

14. Your ignorance of the Proportional Representation system is showing.

PR makes democracy more representative. If a party receives 40% of the vote, they will receive around 40% of the seats. What could be more democratically representative than that?

[OhioStateProgressive]

18. right

as I stated, I support the idea of voting for a person, not a party

I do however want to see a multiparty system here in america

[Minstrel Boy]

8. The NDP and proportional representation

I was at Jack Layton's nomination meeting last night, and the biggest cheer he received was that his absolute, non-negotiable, bottom line for NDP participation in a minority government would be a national referendum on proportional representation.

[Flightful]

12. That's been NDP policy since the early 70s

But they NEVER implemented it in any province where they formed a government and never will. The reason is simple- in 1990 the NDP got a majority of the seats with just 39% of the popular vote. No politician ever reforms the system that brought him to power.

[Iverson]

3. Did you listen to him yesterday?

He was on Cross Country Checkup taking questions from Canadian citizens. Although he was inconclusive in his answers about that, he gave the impression that he wouldn't call elections before a public inquiry board presented his findings about a financial mismanagement scandal. He also said that it wasn't entirely up to him.

I would seriously doubt that the Liberals would base the decision on anticipated growth of the NDP. The Conservatives (in this week's incarnation) are still the main opposition party.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

4. Yes, the Conservatives are the main opposition for now, but

Two strong opposition parties eating into Liberal support is a recipe for a minority government. The NDP is getting to the point where it can win seats from Liberals in Urban BC and Ontario. That is a direct threat to Martin's hopes for a majority win. The buck rests with the PM when it comes to calling an election. His is the final decision.
He would of course be a fool to call the election without consultation, but such things have happened before (Pearson 1965, I believe)

[Minstrel Boy]

9. At this stage, anything that lifts the Conservatives

also lifts the NDP. Even though I'd love to see the Conservatives lagging behind the NDP in the popular vote right now, so long as the Conservatives are eating into Liberal support it raises our chances in most parts of the country. (The notable exception would be British Columbia, but the recent poll had a pretty small sample from BC, and the BC numbers have shifted wildly from poll to poll. I want to see a larger sample before I believe we're losing ground in BC.)

Also, the Conservatives are leaderless right now, which means that both the Alliance and PC camps can still impute upon it their fantasies. Once a leader is choosen, someone is going to be disappointed.

[Flightful]

16. NDP won't do much in Ontario

Their support is thinly spread and most of us still remember Bob Rae. Add to that the fact that Jackass Layton faces an uphill battle just to get a seat for himself (he's running against a strong incumbent) and is notorious for keeping his snout in the public trough (he and his wife live in subsidized "low income" housing while taking home six figures) I doubt his party will go anywhere.

[Minstrel Boy]

17. lol...

"support is thinly spread" - au contraire. Support is actually highly concentrated, unlike that of the Conservatives, and 22% provincially and counting brings a lot of seats into play. And if "most of us still remember Bob Rae," then imagine the impression Mike Harris left on us.

I doubt even Mills would call himself a "strong incumbent" at this point. Just a few months ago he described himself as burned out, and was on the verge of quitting. Layton served the community for 20 years as an accomplished and responsive councillor, and will win it walking away.

And if the most damning story on Layton and Chow is that 12 years ago they lived in subsidized housing, then you have your work cut out for you.

"I doubt his party will go anywhere." Well it's not his; it's ours. And you're in for a surprise.

[Minstrel Boy]

10. I still think it will be Spring, for the reasons you mentioned and

the fact that Martin does not yet have a mandate from the electorate. If he were to wait until the Fall, that's nearly a year he's been PM without Canadians having had anything to say about it, unless they're also members of the Liberal Party. That's just too long, and it will look bad on him.

Martin's decision may rest to some extent on who the new Conservative leader will be, and if he or she is someone who has a shot at appreciably growing the party's support. Certainly the current numbers reflecting Conservative support are somewhat unreliable, since it's a leaderless party, and whomever is chosen is sure to alienate one faction or another.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

11. The Bloc isn't playing along with Martin's plans, it seems

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1076893569608_41///?hub=Canada

This CROP poll, which I haven't been able to Google shows the Bloc at 47% with the Liberals at 34%. This may well be a result of the Groupaction affair, but clearly it shows that the Bloc is not dead. Martin's plan was to build support in Quebec and the West in order to compensate for expected losses to the CPC and NDP in Ontario. Today, it looks like both those presuppositions are flawed.

[Minstrel Boy]

15. The CROP poll gives the NDP 11% in Quebec

Jack made a point of mentioning it - in effortless French, naturally - last night. This is perhaps even more encouraging than our rise to 16% in Alberta, because our gains have been able to withstand a resurgence of the BQ.

11% in Quebec may not qualify as a "breakthrough" yet, but it's a huge improvement over where we'd fallen just a few years ago. And fortunes can shift dramatically in Quebec. Witness the rise and fall of the Conservatives under Mulroney. They dominated the province a little more than 10 years ago, and now stand less a chance of winning a seat than we do.

[MrPrax]

19. Well...(might be a dupe)

What do you lot think?

This is an interesting take…what do I think?

there has been much debate in the press over whether the PM will postpone the expected May 10th Federal Election to June or the fall
Maybe among Liberals, but the debate has been squarely placed Paul ‘OJ’ Martin—‘I didn’t do it, but I will help find the guys that did’.
Clearly Martin is losing the real debate and if anyone has been watching closely—he hasn’t actually done anything except feed the news cycle.
“Politics is not a game played by an elite few”… a Paul Martin bon bon tossed out on CBC CrossCountry Check-Up on Sunday.
He has also managed to ‘backpage’ the CSL discrepency ($335,000 vs. 161 million, then 183 million?)
He didn’t know anything about that either.

The Conservative Leadership Race.
This isn’t a factor because there really isn’t a race—Harper will win.
Unfortunately this is not good for the NDP and great for the Conservatives. Harper is scoring soundbites in QP. It will help his Leadership campaign and do nothing for Tony Lament or Frank/Belinda Stronach.
But this being Canada, national poll numbers are irrelevent to seat distribution. If the Liberals get ‘bounce’, they will go in May. The Conservatives, whoever wins, won’t have any money.

Ed Broadbent would win that by-election, thus boosting NDP fortunes right before an election and introducing a formidable opponent into the house.
Ed will probably win, but so what—he ain’t the Leader.
This is rather a curious situation if you think about it. Broadbent might have a shot at a seat before Jack Layton does…interesting twist.
Will this matter if the Liberals wait until the Fall?
No…because Parliament doesn’t sit in the summer.
So Harper and Layton will be stuck dropping pamphlets at summer cottages, tossing burgers at BBQs and testing stump speeches to their party faithful.



The Liberals, of course, will do doing what Liberals do best with a great angle; Prominent Government Liberals will visit municipal ridings handing out the 2 billion earmarked by Martin for ‘municipal improvement’.

The Liberals will be out ‘saving our cities’, while the other guys will be out criticizing it.
Good fit for the Conservatives as they hate government spending and out West they are '‘harper-ing’ on the gas tax in rural and urban ridings.
Bad fit for the NDP as a lot of their Machine are in municipalities as are their supporters. What will Ed do…drag out the old ‘from Bay Street to Main Street’ schtick.

The rise of the NDP

The sad part is that they didn’t get much according to the Ipso-Reid poll. This is mostly because they don’t have a leader and the Media is NOT going to waste a whole lot of time with Jack Layton’s ‘mental striptease’ on the subject of government corruption.
In fact, according to the numbers, the NDP fell in BC. This is inspite of a NEW provincial leader (no blowback for the Feds on whoever it is) and as such no money either. Also in BC, there is still the unresolved ‘scandal’ of prominent Martinites in the Gordo Cabinet getting searched by the cops with rumours of Martinite vote buying and grow-ops.
The NDP in the BC apparantly didn’t capitalize on either of these Liberal scandals either way.
Libby is probably gone and Svend will have a huge fight if the Liberals drop a ‘star candidate’ into the riding

The New Dems look like they will probably peak at 20%-22%.

Back Me or Sack Me. Martin may take the considerable risk of calling a snap election

Might be a risk…didn’t work for the last Anglo Liberal PM—John Turner.
Conditions in 2004 are similar to what they were back in the early 80s—Liberal patronnage corruption and an ineffectual Liberal leader. Yikes!!!
Only big difference is that the Conservatives are not running a son of Quebec…however Quebec voters might take a powder and sit out the election with the larger BQ—like the numbers they had when Mulroney left.

The Chretienite reaction to Groupaction. Clearly there is a conflict brewing in the Liberal Party between two mutually exclusive camps representing Paul Martin and Jean Chretien

“conflict brewing?”…um…well…yeah…they have been at war for awhile. I distinctly remember Paul ‘a junior Minister from Quebec’ Martin being turfed along with his minions for their attempts at a ‘caucus coup’ not to long ago.

If anything Martin can turn this ‘negative’ into a positive.
He has decried patronnage!
Of course he has to decry patronnage, being a guy who has done little except slash government spending over the last ten years, wandered about collecting backbenchers and raising money from the corporate elite for his Leadership campaign.

The Auditor General’s report also mention the Crowns—what better cover to remove Cretin-ites than under the populist battlecry of cleaning up corruption in the Crowns and then appoint Martin’s own crew of neo-cons slashers to squeeze them for cash. Maybe even in the case of CanadaPost and VIA—privatize them.

I think a few people have noticed that Paul Martin Jr. has been actually running against his own Party for a few months now.
Save for the resignation of Jean Cretin, Martin’s Liberals haven’t actually changed—it’s the same party with the same people.

Remember there is still Shawina-Gate waiting in the wings…

[Screaming Lord Byron]

20. You're sure that Harper will win?

I think Stronach may take it on account of the complete lack of a CPC in Quebec. There her funds can buy votes.
I can't see the Liberals beating Svend. They came third in his riding in 2000. The greater threat is from the CA/CPC and if they didn't beat Robinson then, I don't see it happening now.

[MrPrax]

21. I'd Like to Agree With You...

But Stronach will have to sign up a lot of Quebeckers even with the CPC voting structure that favors the higher Eastern populations...

I don't think that the Conservatives even register in Quebec these days regardless of the cash to spend and regardless of her endorsements by Lyin' Brian and Harris. (But it wouldn't surprise me if the Liberals promote her)

Clement will probably cut into her numbers in Ontario--but Harper will take most of the rest. Harper is from Ontario and will probably take a good chuck of the North over Clement...

As far as Svend...who knows...Liberal numbers are rising and the I did say a 'star' candidate.

He has been counted out a few times and manages to add to his totals, true

But the 'BC' caucus is really cut off from the main body these days...can he get the support?

(He did get party flak for his Arafat meeting, rem? Audrey took him off of the foreign affairs watch with very little debate--that upset me actually)

The Fed NDP is going to have problems focusing on getting Jack Layton a seat (which means a good amount of their warchest will be spent there) as well as Jack not being able to get out of the riding much during the election...

Even Nystrom only got his seat by 70 votes last time around...

Dunno...the Liberals are always threatening to Bobby Lendaruzzi against him (not sure if that is still in the offing)

[Minstrel Boy]

22. Things are better than that

The Fed NDP is going to have problems focusing on getting Jack Layton a seat (which means a good amount of their warchest will be spent there) as well as Jack not being able to get out of the riding much during the election...

I don't think it'll be much of a problem, actually. I live in the riding. Mills admits he's tired, and people want a change. Layton would be a strong candidate in his old council ward at the worst of times, but these aren't those times. 22% in Ontario means Toronto Danforth is more than double that. Plus, all national party leaders get a boost at the polls. As for $$$, his constituency office was paid for in $20,000+ pledges last night at his nomination meeting, and the national warchest is well-stocked at $12 million. Layton will have no trouble heading a national campaign.

Even Nystrom only got his seat by 70 votes last time around...

But last time around, the NDP stood at 8% nationally. Last time ain't this time. Incumbents should not be at risk. This is a time to make gains.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

23. The very lack of a Conservative presence in Quebec will help Stronach

If you can buy a riding for fifty votes, that neutralizes an Alberta riding with thousands of Reformers.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

24. dupe? Are you implying I stole this wholesale from the Globe and Mail?

Me? Never, sir!