My thoughts on the election

[2004Donkeys]

I have a few thoughts that I would like to bounce around. I believe that Kerry has a good chance to be elected President, but its not going to be without a good fight. The reason is because I see unemployment dropping for the next few months at least unless Bush really screws something up, which is always possible if not probable.

(If you go to briefing.com, first time weekly job loss claims are staying in the 350K range, significantly below the benchmark of 400K. Additionally if you look at the 2003 stock market performance as a leading indicator and unemployment as a lagging indicator, then unemployment will go down at least until May.)

(As a side note, I see unemployment picking up after July-August with Bush botching up things in Iraq as well as with Peak Oil, but this may or may not be too late for 2004.)

So if my prediction on unemployment is correct, Kerry needs one of two things to happen for him to beat Bush. Either unemployment can go up starting in the summer or Bush's credibility can be attacked over the WMD issue.

(The AWOL issue won't hunt because nobody cares about what happened in the 1970s. Just go to scrappleface.com to see what the Repukes are starting to have in store for us).

In essence then we will have to do to Bush what the Repukes successfully did to Gore (who had a much better economy to campaign on).

Also for some good news: take a look at the polls on dcpoliticalreport.com. We maybe able to take back the Senate and a few governorships.

[abbyhoffman]

1. Kerry is not going to

beat Bush

[K-W]

2. Stranger things have happened,

Even if you believe every vote will be rigged.

[theorist]

3. Good points.

All of these are great observations, but I think that for a president who singlehandedly led us into an unnecessary war, the AWOL issue is an extremely potent one. If the press latch onto this, it won't go away. (save for a terrorist attack in the U.S. in the next four weeks)

Also, Bush is not innocent of "politicizing the war" as the repub pundits are saying about Kerry. Bush is refusing to ask Congress for more money to fund Iraqi operations until after the election, and the Army only has enough funding to last until mid-Sept.

[Moderator]

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