Meme shift. Chimp bottoms out now = horse race in November

[DrBB]

I mean, yeah, I enjoy it--the pundits being more or less down on the Chimp at the moment. But I don't trust it, and I don't confuse it with reality. Let's be clear about what we're looking at. Whatever they happen to be saying at any given time should be regarded as a snapshot of a herd mentality phenomenon, not some stable long-term judgment based on concrete, objective realities.

What we're really looking at is a narrative structure, not an empirical, scientific one.

Think of the big hero-vs-nemesis fight scene in a hollywood movie. The good guy starts out losing. Always. Otherwise there's no scene. If the Hero just decks the bad guy, there's no drama. So he has to get kicked, slammed, thrown against the wall, etc etc, And then... He Comes Fighting Back.

There are some objective reasons for what is going on. The SOTU sucked, followed by Kay's "revelation" (which we already knew), followed by the MTP event, which seems to be getting worse reviews from the right than from us. Peggy Noonan thought it sucked; so, apparently, did the pundits on NRO. Fine. Good. Good for them.

But wit ye well: Everything the Chimp has done has sucked, objectively, and the whores have raved (or condemned) based on nothing to do with that fact. He has said unbelievably atrocious and absurd things that have gone ignored, all based on the prevailing meme not the quality of his utterances themselves. The reality is not what happens, but what they SAY happened, and what they say is driven by herd mentality--the narrative, the meme--and empirical facts are filtered, selected, chosen to fit, not the other way around.

So it's fine that he's on a down trend. But I fear it's only a set-up for the Hollywood uptrend: The Hero Fights Back.

It's going to narrow down. Failing some kind of horrific, totally unequivocal and undeniable and catastrophic failure, it's going to narrow back down again, at least in terms of the kind of coverage he gets. We have to be prepared to fight every inch of the way till then.

[Beetwasher]

1. Inertia

Once the herd starts stampeding in a certain direction, it's tough to stop, even with the control on the media they have.

Once the Chimp's credibility is gone, there's practically no getting it back. I think we may have reached that point, or at least are VERY close.One of the ONLY things that might give him back some cred would be producing OBL, however, even that might only be a temporary, superficial bump.

We're very close, however, I'm not sure it will matter whether he get's the most votes, which is the game the Dems are still playing.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

3. Things rolling against the shrub now

Producing the OBL surprise now certainly could arrest this process and possibly even win the election, but it would be awfully early to play this card (I'm assuming of course that they have the guy on ice). They might have to do it early though the way things are going.

[TruthIsAll]

14. Big MO = Critical Mass

The snowball effect. He can't come back. He cannot regain credibilty from those who have given up on him.

At best, he may slow or arrest the decline.

But then, something new will blow up in his face: AWOL, 9/11, the economy, Iraq, Plame..etc.

The Perfect Storm will sink him.

[acmavm]

2. You are absolutely right. This will be one bloody and gory fight to the

bitter end. As the media see their hero start to tank, they'll pump up the propaganda machines. It's not like years ago when there was at best an 'attempt' at reporting both sides of the election. This will be an ugly fight because of stooges like Novak, Hume, Brokaw, Russert. and the big shots on the right-wing radio talk shows. Every issue that the democrats want to get across will have compete with the one-sided views of the Murdoch and Moon media. The media will give the Bush* administration the most attention, they will slant everything in their favor. The democratic nominee is going to have to fight like crazy to get favorable air time and print media attention.

This is going to all come down to the reality of how much the Bush policies have hurt the average American and the burden that he has put on the backs of generations to come.

Edit: Just want to remark that I don't mention Oxyrush because I think he's pretty much blown most of his credibility with everyone but the truly brain dead.

[enough]

4. Yes. The one story the media knows is

rise and fall.

They want to tell it over and over. There's time for three or four more of these cycles still before November.

And it will be timed. Carefully. Depends on who their masters decide it should be when the time comes. I don't think they know yet.

Hate to sound so cynical.

The bright spot is that his aura of divinity/untouchablity is gone. He's just a mediocre pol, and everybody knows it now. That's a step, anyway.

[vanityfair]

17. This is true, but...

there is always the unexpected.

As Burns said, "The best laid plans of Chimps and media whores...."

[mot78]

5. No doubt about it

It will be a close election. We're still near 50-50 idealogically.

[lastknowngood]

6. Yea I figure we have three surprises before the election

OBL
CIA planted nerve agents found in Iraq
either declare victory in Iraq or invade another country that one is a toss up.

[BillZBubb]

7. How about

a state funeral for Raygun? The Repukes would love that to happen during the Dem convention.

[Newsjock]

9. Fourth "surprise" ...

Ronald Reagan's rotting corpse lying in state in the Capitol Rotunda, with all the attendant 24/7 TV fawning.

September or October, mark my words.

[I Lean Left]

8. Maybe

But then again, I kept thinking his father was going to come back too. These things sometimes take on a momentum. If the jobs don't start coming back, and the Dem nominee strikes a cord, and every effort by * starts to reek of desperation...

[Poiuyt]

15. Jr is dirtier than his father

Remember the push polling he did against McCain in South Carolina? You wouldn't think anyone could stoop so low. But this is who we are up against.

It is true, however, that the media seems to be covering bush negatives more than they did a few months ago (or during the 2000 election). That is a good sign. But with all the money in the world and no scrupples whatsoever, it's going to be VERY tough.

[leftofthedial]

10. with BBV and GOP fascist dirty tricks . . .

it will take about 75% - 80% of the vote for the Democratic candidate to register something near a tie.

That is the Bush GOPNAC Cabal's strategy. After all, they still own the 5 traitorous Supremes. All they need is a perceived "tie."

$200 million can alienate a boatload of voters and cancel a boatload of bona fide votes.

[Doctor_J]

11. It's gonna take alot of doing

to get him headed up again. IOW, I don't think he's at the bottom yet.

I think they will be forced to parade OBL around ahead of schedule, and as such will have played one of their trumps too early to be of much use in November.

The thing I like is that the crap he used to get away with isn't flying right now. The ridiculous "independent commission" has been met with universal derision, and no one is buying the independence or the timetable. After 9/11 he'd have gotten away with a whitewash like that.

Keep working - drip, drip, whoosh.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

21. Stuff that isn't working

The thing I like is that the crap he used to get away with isn't flying right now.

For example, the response to the AWOL issue is that it's an "outrage" etc. that it's even brought up (attacking back). This used to cow the media. Yet now the issue still makes it to Time magazine and MTP/Russert.

I have no illusions--I still think the "big media" are gutless whores but since shrub is down they have a little more "courage" to question and do a little real journalism. If shrub turns things around to put himself back on top of the bull (more war etc.) I would not be surprised by a reappearance of the cowed media.

We must strike while the iron is hot...

[jpgray]

12. The media enjoy pauperizing and kingmaking

They will definitely try to do the latter to Bush, but perhaps they will pauperize him first. Then when Kerry is ahead and Bush is in the gutter, they will flip.

[Jacobin]

13. The media likes Greek plays

Ya build someone up to glorious heights and then ya pull the rug out from under them and watch them sprawl across the room in slow motion. Kaboom.

Build 'em up an' tear 'em down.

That's what they do. They are tearing Smirk down at the moment (not too close to the election), and building up Kerry. (remember Dean?).

Soon, they will begin tearing down Kerry and building up Smirk....just in time for November.

Sorry to be so cynical. This isn't my first rodeo.

[alcuno]

16. His bottom is around 35%.

Those are diehard Republicans who would eagerly vote for an ass. Still a ways for him to go if he is going to bottom out.

[TXDemGal]

18. Spot on.

A great read on the subject of political narratives is Joan Didion's book, "Political Fictions." In her acknowledgments, she credits her now deceased husband, the novelist John Gregory Dunne, for teaching her about political narratives. Of course, she herself writes brilliantly about them.

[Wapsie B]

19. That's it.

I just can't see the whores letting chimpy fall all the way till November. That is unless the powers that be have decided that they would be better off with someone like Kerry.

[Octafish]

20. So, now's the time to let 'er rip!

Now's the time and we should use the window we've been given wisely. The basic message: Bush is no Hero. Bush is a Liar. Bush is a Crook. We can refine it further as "TIME" allows.

Eventually, the truth will out on every single thing we got on the BFEE, from Prescott learning how to arm the NAZIs from his own grandpop ripping off the Union Army and W clinking champagne toasts with the Chicoms after Tiananmen Square to Selection 2000-PNAC-Energy Policy Pearl Harbor and 9-11 MIHOP. Think of how DU hit a "tipping point" after all 9-11. Same would go for the society as a whole, given the truth.

Let's give the BFEE and their frontman the Little Turd from Crawford the old what's for. Can't wait until a real journalist asks Smirko about TANG and BCCI buddy James R Bath, for another thing...